The 2026 NRL Finals are just six weeks away and the race for the top eight is getting tense.<\/p>\n
Last season the cut-off for the finals was 32 competition points, while 30 was enough in 2024.<\/p>\n
The Sporting News takes a closer look at the run home for all 17 NRL teams and makes weekly predictions on who will make it to the post-season in 2026.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s our take heading into NRL Round 22 (teams listed in current ladder order):<\/p>\n
1. Penrith Panthers (34 points)<\/p>\n
Played 18, Won 14 Lost 4,\u00a0Points Differential +284<\/p>\n
Still to play:<\/p>\n
R22: Raiders (home)\u00a0W\u00a0R23: Warriors (away) WR24: Roosters (home)\u00a0WR25: Storm (away)\u00a0WR26: Bulldogs (home)\u00a0WR27: Tigers (home)\u00a0W<\/p>\n
Best finish:\u00a01st<\/p>\n
Predicted finish: 1st<\/p>\n
Penrith looked virtually unbeatable for the first half of the season, but went off the boil a little during State of Origin. They got the win over the Eels<\/a> in Round 21 without looking entirely dominant which is all they need to do, of course. Still strong favourites to lift the NRL Premiership trophy on the first Sunday in October.<\/p>\n 2. Sydney Roosters (32 points)<\/p>\n Played 18, Won 13, Lost 5, Points Differential +85<\/p>\n Still to play:<\/p>\n R22: Cowboys (away) LR23: Bulldogs (home)\u00a0WR24: Panthers (away)\u00a0LR25: Tigers (home)\u00a0WR26: Dolphins (home) WR27: Rabbitohs (away) W<\/p>\n Best finish:\u00a01st<\/p>\n Predicted finish: 2nd<\/p>\n The Roosters<\/a> got the win against the Knights<\/a>, just, thanks to a James Tedesco hat-trick and DCE field goal. Top four looks almost certain and from there the Chooks will fancy their chances against anyone. Watch out.<\/p>\n 3. New Zealand Warriors (30 points)<\/p>\n Played 18, Won 12, Lost 6,\u00a0Points Differential +190<\/p>\n Still to play:<\/p>\n R22: Titans (away)\u00a0WR23: Panthers (home) LR24: Broncos (away)\u00a0LR25: Rabbitohs (away)\u00a0WR26: Knights (home)\u00a0WR27: Sea Eagles (home)\u00a0W<\/p>\n Best finish:\u00a01st<\/p>\n Predicted finish: 4th<\/p>\n The Warriors<\/a> have had plenty thrown at them this season with big injuries to key players, but will pay finals – the only question is where they finish. The top four beckons but the Roosters may have the edge for the top two after last week’s slip-up against the Bulldogs<\/a>.<\/p>\n 4. Cronulla Sharks (30 points)<\/p>\n Played 18, Won 12, Lost 6, Points Differential +161<\/p>\n Still to play:<\/p>\n R22: Rabbitohs (home)\u00a0WR23: Dragons (away) WR24: Raiders (home) WR25: Titans (away) WR26: Eels (away) WR27: Storm (home)\u00a0L<\/p>\n Best finish: 1st<\/p>\n Predicted finish: 3rd<\/p>\n The Sharks<\/a> are cooking right now at both ends of the field and the biggest concern is, have they peaked too early? A reasonably comfortable draw with their only remaining away trips to bottom-ranked teams. Top four is looking good, if not top two, thanks to a strong for and against.<\/p>\n The Roosters move into second place with just six rounds remaining! \ud83d\udc13 pic.twitter.com\/zgt09oDPOx<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 NRL (@NRL) July 26, 2026<\/a>5. Dolphins (28 points)<\/p>\n Played 18, Won 11, Lost 7, Points Differential +84<\/p>\n Still to play:<\/p>\n R22: Dragons (away) WR23: Broncos (home) WR24: Sea Eagles (away) LR25: Eels (home) WR26: Roosters (away) LR27: Titans (away) W<\/p>\n Best finish:\u00a0Top 4<\/p>\n Predicted finish: 5th<\/p>\n Fresh off the bye and soon to be bolstered by the return of star half Isaiya\u00a0Katoa. Surely this is the season the Phins will play finals footy and who knows what damage they can do with their blistering attack?<\/p>\n 6. South Sydney Rabbitohs (26 points)<\/p>\n Played 18, Won 10, Lost 8, Points Differential +78<\/p>\n Still to play:<\/p>\n R22: Sharks (away) LR23: Eels (home) WR24: Bulldogs (home) WR25: Warriors (home) LR26: Titans (away) WR27: Roosters (away) L<\/p>\n Best finish:\u00a0Top 4<\/p>\n Predicted finish: 7th<\/p>\n It\u2019s been another drama-filled season for the Rabbitohs<\/a>, but despite injuries and suspensions they\u2019re still right in the mix. The Storm<\/a> win was brave without multiple stars and if they can get a result against the Sharks this week, anything is possible. The Warriors game in Round 25 shapes as a critical moment, by which stage they should have most of their big names back on deck.<\/p>\n 7. Newcastle Knights (26 points)<\/p>\n Played 19, Won 11, Lost 8, Points Differential +36<\/p>\n Still to play:<\/p>\n R22: Broncos (away) LR23: Raiders (away) LR24: Titans (home) WR25: Sea Eagles (home) LR26: Warriors (away) LR27: Bye<\/p>\n Best finish:\u00a0Top 4<\/p>\n Predicted finish: 9th<\/p>\n The Knights have fallen to the edge of the Top 8 and face some tough matches in the run home including the Broncos<\/a>, Raiders<\/a> and Warriors all away. In devastating news they lost two of their most important players for the season in the loss to the Roosters. Even if Kalyn Ponga returns from his quad injury, it’s hard to see them hanging on without Dylan Brown and Dylan Lucas. But\u00a0whatever happens from here it\u2019s still been an impressive rebound from last year\u2019s wooden spoon.<\/p>\n 8. North Queensland Cowboys (26 points)<\/p>\n Played 19, Won 11, Lost 8, Points Differential -28<\/p>\n Still to play:<\/p>\n R22: Roosters (home) LR23: Titans (away) WR24: Eels (away) WR25: ByeR26: Tigers (home) WR27: Raiders (home) W<\/p>\n Best finish:\u00a0Top 4<\/p>\n Predicted finish: 6th<\/p>\n The Cowboys have lost Tom Dearden yet again in another setback, but they still managed to get the job done against the Broncos. They have a tough match-up with the Roosters in Round 22 but their remaining games are all against teams outside the top 8. Top four isn’t entirely out of the question.<\/p>\n 9. Canterbury Bulldogs (24 points)<\/p>\n Played 18, Won 9, Lost 9, Points Differential -58<\/p>\n Still to play:<\/p>\n R22: Storm (away) WR23: Roosters (away) LR24: Rabbitohs (home) LR25: Dragons (home)\u00a0WR26: Panthers (away) LR27: Broncos (home) W<\/p>\n Best finish:\u00a06th<\/p>\n Predicted finish: 8th<\/p>\n The Bulldogs are back and knocking on the door of the finals. With the Storm, Roosters, Bunnies, Panthers and Broncos still to come it’s a tough run home. But this is a tough team. We reckon they’ll just make it.<\/p>\n 10. Manly Sea Eagles (22 points)<\/p>\n Played 19, Won 9 Lost 10, Points Differential +90<\/p>\n Still to play:<\/p>\n R22: ByeR23: Storm (Perth) LR24: Dolphins (home)\u00a0WR25: Knights (away) LR26: Dragons (home)\u00a0WR27: Warriors (away) L<\/p>\n Best finish:\u00a06th<\/p>\n Predicted finish: 12th<\/p>\n The Sea Eagles were flying high under Kieran Foran but have come right off the boil in the past month and face a major struggle to play finals, especially with injuries to key spine players Tom Trbojevic and Luke Brooks. If they do make the top eight, it will be by the skin of their teeth. Not looking good.<\/p>\n 11. Canberra Raiders (22 points)<\/p>\n Played 19, Won 9, Lost 10, Points Differential -35<\/p>\n Still to play:<\/p>\n R22: Panthers (away) LR23: Knights (home) WR24: Sharks (away) LR25: Broncos (home) WR26: ByeR27: Cowboys (away) L<\/p>\n Best finish:\u00a06th<\/p>\n Predicted finish: 10th<\/p>\n The Raiders have turned a corner in the past few weeks and aren\u2019t completely out of the running. Losing Hudson Young for the rest of the season was a massive blow, but they’re in form at the right time and still a sneaky chance to make it.<\/p>\n 12. Melbourne Storm (20 points)<\/p>\n Played 19, Won 8, Lost 11, Points Differential -12<\/p>\n Still to play:<\/p>\n R22: Bulldogs (home) LR23: Sea Eagles (Perth) WR24: ByeR25: Panthers (home) LR26: Broncos (away) WR27: Sharks (away) W<\/p>\n Best finish:\u00a06th<\/p>\n Predicted finish: 11th<\/p>\n The Rabbitohs loss was costly in more ways than one with Harry Grant set to miss at least the next fortnight while Cameron Munster remains on the sidelines. Another loss this week to the Bulldogs will surely end their 2026 hopes for good.<\/p>\n 13. Gold Coast Titans (18 points)<\/p>\n Played 18, Won 6, Lost 12, Points Differential -86<\/p>\n Still to play:<\/p>\n R22: Warriors (home) LR23: Cowboys (home) LR24: Knights (away) LR25: Sharks (home)\u00a0LR26: Rabbitohs (home)\u00a0LR27: Dolphins (home) L<\/p>\n Best finish:\u00a013th<\/p>\n Predicted finish: 16th<\/p>\n They won\u2019t finish last and have shown they can beat anyone on their day. But even a sustained run from here won\u2019t get the Titans into the finals. With a tough end to the season they may struggle to win again, despite having five of their last six games at home.<\/p>\n 14. Brisbane Broncos (18 points)<\/p>\n Played 18, Won 6, Lost 12, Points Differential -132<\/p>\n Still to play:<\/p>\n R22: Knights (home) WR23: Dolphins (away) LR24: Warriors (home) WR25: Raiders (away) LR26: Storm (home)\u00a0LR27: Bulldogs (away) L<\/p>\n Best finish:\u00a08th<\/p>\n Predicted finish: 13th<\/p>\n The Cowboys loss has all but extinguished any hope for the premiers to defend their title. They’re playing for little more than pride now.<\/p>\n 15. Parramatta Eels (18 points)<\/p>\n Played 19, Won 6, Lost 12, Points Differential -182<\/p>\n Still to play:<\/p>\n R22: Tigers (home) WR23: Rabbitohs, (away) LR24: Cowboys (home)\u00a0LR25: Dolphins (away) LR26: Sharks (home)\u00a0LR27: Dragons (away) W<\/p>\n Best finish: 10th<\/p>\n Predicted finish: 14th<\/p>\n It\u2019s been a hugely disappointing season for the Eels who\u2019ve shown glimpses of what they can do without ever truly getting going. A tough run home will likely see them finish in the bottom four.<\/p>\n 16. Wests Tigers (18 points)<\/p>\n Played 19, Won 7, Lost 12, Points Differential -208<\/p>\n Still to play:<\/p>\n R22: Eels (home) LR23: ByeR24: Dragons (home) WR25: Roosters (away) LR26: Cowboys (away) LR27: Panthers (away) L<\/p>\n Best finish:\u00a08th<\/p>\n Predicted finish: 15th<\/p>\n The season that fell off a cliff just keeps getting worse after a week from hell that ended with a 46-point drubbing from Canberra. Despite all the promise for the first two months of the season, the Tigers will do well to avoid finishing in the bottom two.<\/p>\n 17. St George Illawarra Dragons (10 points)<\/p>\n Played 18, Won 2, Lost 16, Points Differential -267<\/p>\n Still to play:<\/p>\n R22: Dolphins (home)\u00a0LR23: Sharks (home)\u00a0LR24: Tigers (away) LR25: Bulldogs (away) \u00a0LR26: Sea Eagles (away) LR27: Eels (home) L<\/p>\n Best finish:\u00a016th<\/p>\n Predicted finish: 17th<\/p>\n The loss to the Titans means the Dragons will almost certainly \u2018win\u2019 the wooden spoon. The rest of 2026 is all about building for 2027 under newly-confirmed head coach Dean Young. Even one more win from here would be a success with the Tigers in Round 24 the most likely moment for it to happen.<\/p>\n