{"id":828566,"date":"2026-07-28T07:09:11","date_gmt":"2026-07-28T07:09:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/828566\/"},"modified":"2026-07-28T07:09:11","modified_gmt":"2026-07-28T07:09:11","slug":"rba-says-iran-impact-on-housing-market-worse-than-expected","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/828566\/","title":{"rendered":"RBA says Iran impact on housing market worse than expected"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">The housing market has been weaker than the Reserve Bank anticipated since war in the Middle East began, raising fresh concerns over the path ahead for homeowners and borrowers when it comes to interest rates.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Speaking in Sydney on Tuesday, governor Michele Bullock said the property market has been a standout poor performer in the economy since United States-Israel coordinated attacks on Iran began.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">\u201cWe had expected conditions to ease in response to the changed outlook for monetary policy and the rise in the cash rate earlier this year, but the housing market has eased by more than we had anticipated,\u201d Ms Bullock said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">The governor said both general softening and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.com.au\/news\/budget-2026-major-changes-to-negative-gearing-cgt-discount-in-huge-housing-shakeup\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">policy changes introduced in the May budget<\/a> reflected the easing.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">While easing this year has been modest following a period of strong growth, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.com.au\/insights\/proptrack-home-price-index-june-2026\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">median price of a home in Australia in June<\/a> was only $6000 higher than in February, with annual growth having dropped from 9.1% to 5.8%, the Home Price Index shows.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Ms Bullock acknowledged price declines had been largely concentrated in the Sydney and Melbourne markets, where prices in June were down 0.5% and 0.4% in the cities respectively.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"styles__StyledImage-sc-17n6uwl-1 hlcJVa wp-post-1149182 wp-image-1149185\"  src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg xmlns=&quot;http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg&quot; viewBox=&quot;0 0 800 450&quot;%3E%3C\/svg%3E\"  alt=\"\" loading=\"eager\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Home values are falling in Australia&#8217;s priciest city. Picture: Getty<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Despite, this the RBA is confident households can hold on through the bumpiest year since Covid.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">\u201cOur estimates suggest only a small share of borrowers are facing difficulty with their loan repayments,\u201d Ms Bullock said. \u201cIt indicates financial stability risks are contained and borrowers in aggregate have built up considerable savings buffers over the years.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">While the bank expects housing prices to be affected when interest rates rise, Ms Bullock reiterated her long-held argument that monetary policy does not target housing prices.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">\u201cRather, what matters for monetary policy is how changes in housing prices affect household spending, investment decisions and inflation,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"styles__StyledImage-sc-17n6uwl-1 hlcJVa wp-post-1149182 wp-image-1149186\"  src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg xmlns=&quot;http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg&quot; viewBox=&quot;0 0 800 450&quot;%3E%3C\/svg%3E\"  alt=\"\" loading=\"eager\"\/><\/p>\n<p>The RBA is closely watching spending and investment decisions. Picture: Getty<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">As the RBA\u2019s monetary policy board prepares to hand down the next interest rate decision in two weeks\u2019 time, forecasting is continuing to prove challenging.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.com.au\/news\/make-or-break-data-next-week-will-lock-in-rbas-next-move-as-unemployment-holds-steady\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">The labour market has eased more<\/a> than the Reserve Bank expected over recent months, and Ms Bullock also noted the unemployment rate has risen \u201csomewhat more\u201d than predictions.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">\u201cFive months have passed since the conflict began and while there are now some signs of the impact on inflation activity, conditions can change quickly,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">\u201cThe key question in the period ahead is whether the tightening in monetary policy earlier in the year is sufficient.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"styles__StyledImage-sc-17n6uwl-1 hlcJVa wp-post-1149182 wp-image-1149184\"  src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg xmlns=&quot;http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg&quot; viewBox=&quot;0 0 800 450&quot;%3E%3C\/svg%3E\"  alt=\"\" loading=\"eager\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock says the housing market is weaker than the bank had expected it to be. Picture: Oliver Contreras \/ AFP<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Ms Bullock\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.com.au\/news\/rba-warns-middle-east-pressures-are-harming-housing-market\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">concerns were flagged in minutes from the RBA\u2019s May interest rate decision meeting<\/a>, which revealed the housing market has been the first area to feel the effects of rate rises in February and March.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Since then, the cash rate was raised to 4.35%, with further tightening still on the table for 11 August.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Westpac is the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.com.au\/news\/major-bank-drops-new-expectation-for-2027-rate-cuts\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">only one of the nation\u2019s big four banks expecting a rate hike<\/a>, with Commonwealth Bank, National Australia Bank and ANZ expecting the bank will still need more time to assess the effects of earlier tightening.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">The Australian Securities Exchange shows markets had been pricing in a 43% chance of a cash rate increase on 24 July, with that number dropping to 28% on 27 July.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The housing market has been weaker than the Reserve Bank anticipated since war in the Middle East began,&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":828567,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[64,63,99,164],"class_list":["post-828566","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-business","tag-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/828566","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=828566"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/828566\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/828567"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=828566"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=828566"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=828566"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}