{"id":829292,"date":"2026-07-28T15:17:14","date_gmt":"2026-07-28T15:17:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/829292\/"},"modified":"2026-07-28T15:17:14","modified_gmt":"2026-07-28T15:17:14","slug":"victorian-school-disengagement-report-estimates-33-billion-cost-to-state-economy-over-students-lifetimes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/829292\/","title":{"rendered":"Victorian school disengagement: Report estimates $33 billion cost to state economy over students\u2019 lifetimes"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Jackson<\/p>\n

July 29, 2026 \u2014 12:05am<\/p>\n

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The 26,457 Victorian year 8 students who are disengaged from school this year will cost the state economy $33 billion over the course of their lives, research has estimated.<\/p>\n

One in three students are not engaged in their schooling during years 7 to 9, which costs the state 5 per cent of GDP and each household more than $13,000, according to a report by the Institute for Educational Reform released on Wednesday.<\/p>\n

\"InstituteInstitute for Educational Reform chair David Loader with students.Simon Schluter<\/p>\n

The figure includes students who are absent from school and those who are present but falling behind in class because of disengagement, as well as those who are gifted but disengaged.<\/p>\n

It estimates the potential lost personal income, productivity and taxes, as well as the social costs including through the health and justice systems, over the 45-year working life of those students. It also accounts for students who regain focus in later life.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe cost is $33 billion because once these kids become adults and enter the workforce, about a quarter never enter the workforce in a formal way,\u201d said former NSW Treasury chief economist Stephen Walters, who calculated the figure. \u201cAnd of the rest who do work over their lives, a lot of it is intermittent.<\/p>\n

Related Article\"Hesther<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cSo what that leaves over the 45 years or so of their working lives is a big forgone income because they could have been working at a higher level.\u201d<\/p>\n

Walters has estimated this cost for the first time at a state level, finding the biggest losses come from low wages and missed productivity rather than the excess burden on the Victorian taxpayer or forgone taxes.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe social costs outweigh the direct fiscal costs by a factor of five to one,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s a massive social benefit [to students being engaged] because it generates income in the economy \u2013 that generates investment, it generates more jobs.\u201d<\/p>\n

Australian students are estimated to miss about four weeks of schooling a year on average, adding up to a year between the first day of school and the end of year 10.<\/p>\n

Related Article\"Jiress<\/a><\/p>\n

In Victoria, attendance rates for years 7 to 10 dropped from 92.4 per cent in 2016 to 86.9 per cent in 2025.<\/p>\n

The scale of disengagement also appears in the state government\u2019s Attitudes to School Survey<\/a>, released in March, which showed 50.2 per cent of students in years 7 to 9 had a sense of belonging in their school, and only 52.8 per cent said their teachers made them interested in learning.<\/p>\n

Institute for Educational Reform chair David Loader, a former principal of 32 years, said the cost was a wake-up call that leaving behind students in their middle years was a missed opportunity. \u201cIf they were more involved, our community would benefit enormously,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Giving principals more autonomy to speak up about fixes in schools and ensuring teachers had the time and resources to focus on individual students were part of the solution, Loader said. However, he acknowledged there wasn\u2019t a silver bullet.<\/p>\n

As a principal, Loader introduced residential education programs including at MLC, where year 9 students live together in Marshmead in East Gippsland for eight weeks, and at Wesley College, where students go to Clunes, north of Ballarat. He said these programs helped students gain personal growth outside academic learning in years when they were at risk of disengagement at school.<\/p>\n

\u201cA school that\u2019s helping young people to grow as opposed to a school that\u2019s focused on a number at year 12 is a very different thing,\u201d he said. \u201cThat\u2019s the cultural change we\u2019re looking for \u2013 we no longer look at students as a number, but we look for personal growth.\u201d<\/p>\n

A Victorian government spokesperson did not directly respond to questions about student disengagement in the classroom but acknowledged that regular attendance was critical to success.<\/p>\n

Related Article\"Mimi<\/a><\/p>\n

Since 2023, Victoria\u2019s year 12 completion rates have grown to 97 per cent, up 5 percentage points, and the year 10 to 12 retention rate of 85 per cent is the highest in eight years. The vocational major<\/a> is also reshaping the pathways students take to the workforce.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve made a record investment in student mental health, putting mental health workers in every public school,\u201d the government spokesperson said.<\/p>\n

\u201cVictoria\u2019s school attendance rates continue to improve, thanks to the exceptional efforts of teachers and school leaders who\u202fwork hard to ensure every student is engaged in their learning and feels like they belong at their school.\u201d<\/p>\n

Opposition education spokesperson Brad Rowswell blamed Education Minister and now Premier Ben Carroll for \u201cdeclining school attendance, falling student engagement, collapsing teacher morale, and serious safety concerns in early childhood services\u201d.<\/p>\n

Start the day with a summary of the day\u2019s most important and interesting stories, analysis and insights. Sign up for our Morning Edition newsletter<\/a>. <\/p>\n

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\"JacksonJackson Graham<\/a> is an education reporter at The Age. He was previously an explainer reporter.Connect via email<\/a>.From our partners<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"July 29, 2026 \u2014 12:05am Save You have reached your maximum number of saved items. Remove items from…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":829293,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[64,63,99,164],"class_list":["post-829292","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-business","tag-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/829292","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=829292"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/829292\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/829293"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=829292"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=829292"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=829292"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}