{"id":831374,"date":"2026-07-29T13:53:21","date_gmt":"2026-07-29T13:53:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/831374\/"},"modified":"2026-07-29T13:53:21","modified_gmt":"2026-07-29T13:53:21","slug":"ufc-belgrade-main-card-odds-breakdowns-and-predictions-x-factor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/831374\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC Belgrade main card odds, breakdowns and predictions | X-Factor"},"content":{"rendered":"

This weekend (Sat., Aug. 1, 2026), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will venture forth to Belgrade Arena in Belgrade, Serbia, for UFC Belgrade<\/a>. The Octagon will visit Serbia for the first time, and the promotion is highlighting local talent as best as possible. Serbian knockout artist<\/a>, Uros Medic, will step up to a main event slot for the first time<\/a> opposite heavy-handed slugger, Daniel Rodriguez. In addition, former 205-pound king Jan Blachowicz returns to action against an unexpected foe, and Alexander Rakic will try his hand at Heavyweight.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s dig into the analysis and predictions of the four main card fights leading up to the main event:<\/p>\n

\"SEATTLE,<\/a><\/p>\n

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – MARCH 28: (R-L) Navajo Stirling of New Zealand punches Bruno Lopes of Brazil in a light heavyweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at Climate Pledge Arena on March 28, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Lightweight: Jan Blachowicz (+255)<\/a> vs. Navajo Stirling (-350)
<\/a>Best Win for Blachowicz? Israel Adesanya For Stirling? Ion Cutelaba
Current Streak: Blachowicz fought Bogdan Guskov to a draw last time out, while Stirling has won five straight in the Octagon
X-Factor: Blachowicz is ancient
How these two match up: Despite Blachowicz\u2019s decline, this is still a compelling fight.<\/p>\n

It feels strange to admit that Blachowicz hasn\u2019t won a fight since May 2022. In the four bouts since, the results have been two draws<\/a> and two incredible close decisions<\/a>, any of which could\u2019ve gone Blachowicz\u2019s way with very slight adjustments. Even at 43, Blachowicz is tough as nails, slick on the outside and deceptively strong.<\/p>\n

His gas tank, however, remains a permanent issue.<\/p>\n

Stirling does not have issues with volume. The City Kickboxing-trained striker is high output at every range, smartly making use of his lanky build to relentlessly score points. He\u2019s not a huge hitter, but Stirling has still stopped plenty of his opposition by breaking them down with consistent connections.<\/p>\n

At this stage of the game, Stirling feels very wrong for Blachowicz. He\u2019s going to have a significant edge in speed, and he just sets a much higher pace than the Polish veteran. Unless Blachowicz can find the early knockout, he\u2019s going to fall behind on the scorecards. A few years ago, perhaps Blachowicz wrestles his way to victory like he did versus \u201cStylebender,\u201d but he longer has the gas tank to do so. Also, Bogdan Guskov is quite bad, so for Blachowicz to fight down to his level<\/a> is an ominous sign versus an actually talented prospect.<\/p>\n

Expect a competitive first round before Stirling pulls away.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Stirling via decision<\/p>\n

\"Tim<\/a>\"MMA\"ABU<\/a><\/p>\n

ABU DHABI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES – OCTOBER 25: Aleksandar Rakic of Austria kicks Azamat Murzakanov of Russia in a light heavyweight fight during the UFC 321 event at Etihad Arena on October 25, 2025 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. (Photo by Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Heavyweight: Aleksandar Rakic (-340)<\/a> vs. Marcin Tybura (+250)
<\/a>Best Win for Rakic? Thiago Santos For Tybura? Andrei Arlovski
Current Streak: Rakic has lost four in a row, while Tybura has lost two in a row
X-Factor: This is Rakic\u2019s first bout at Heavyweight
How these two match up: Despite the recent losses, I\u2019m still looking forward to this clash of veterans.<\/p>\n

Prior to his freak knee injury versus Blachowicz (more on that here<\/a>), Rakic appeared to be on the rise to Light Heavyweight gold. His style is very classic European Muay Thai \u2014 short combos and powerful kicks \u2014 paired with smothering wrestling. He was gigantic for 205 pounds, so it\u2019ll be interesting to see how his physicality holds up against men closer to his size.<\/p>\n

Tybura, meanwhile, spent many years as a Heavyweight gatekeeper to the elite, utilizing consistent kickboxing, solid wrestling and a strong gas tank (by big man standards) to routinely wear down prospects. It must be admitted that the cracks are beginning to show at 40 years of age, though upsetting Mick Parkin last year was still a nice feather in his cap.<\/p>\n

Wide odds aside, I\u2019m expecting a competitive fight. Both men are better kickers than boxers, and the wrestling is likely to cancel out to a large extent. As such, I envision a lot of naked kick from either side accompanied by occasional bursts forward. Rakic has the youth and speed advantage, but he\u2019s unfamiliar to Heavyweight fighting and could very likely gas out. Plus, Tybura has decent power, and Rakic\u2019s chin has looked a little shaky in recent years.<\/p>\n

The recipe for an upset is there. Two years ago, perhaps I would\u2019ve picked it! Nowadays, I can\u2019t help but feel Rakic has the quickness to avoid Tybura\u2019s lumbering shots and the youth to exceed his pace down the stretch.<\/p>\n

If he shows up looking like a Jamahal Hill-shaped blob<\/a> at weigh-ins, I change my pick.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Rakic via decision<\/p>\n

\"WINNIPEG,<\/a><\/p>\n

WINNIPEG, MANITOBA – APRIL 17: Robert Valentin of Switzerland poses on the scale during the UFC Fight Night ceremonial weigh-in at Canada Life Centre on April 17, 2026 in Winnipeg, Manitoba. (Photo by Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Middleweight: Robert Valentin (-162)<\/a> vs. Dusko Todorovic (+126)
<\/a>Best Win for Valentin? Julian Leblanc For Todorovic? Michel Pereira
Current Streak: Both men won their last bout
X-Factor: Todorovic is a bit fragile
How these two match up: This is not a great fight, but it should be fun.<\/p>\n

Valentin finally secured his first UFC win last time out, overwhelming Leblanc for a quick tapout. The Swiss finisher is a bit of a wild man, known for his lunging offense and sneaky submission skills. Todorovic is more of a meat-and-potatoes wrestle-boxer. His best success comes from his top game, while he tends to struggle with avoiding his opponent\u2019s swings.<\/p>\n

Valentin is not particularly hard to take down, which is a concern against Todorovic. Conversely, Todorovic is not very hard to hit, which is a concern against Valentin. We\u2019re talking about two flawed fighters, each with the skills to take advantage of their opponent\u2019s weaknesses.<\/p>\n

Does that make the prediction a bit of a crapshoot? Definitely. Even so, I trust Valentin a little more across 15 minutes. He\u2019s the more durable fighter, and his gas tank holds up reasonably well across 15 minutes. Todorovic, conversely, gets hurt often and definitely fades down the stretch in competitive fights. Between the two, Valentin makes for a better nail, so in a fight when both men will play the hammer at some point \u2026<\/p>\n

\u201cRobzilla\u201d gets the job done late in the second.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Valentin via knockout<\/p>\n

\"Tim<\/a>\"MMA<\/p>\n

UFC OKC FIGHT STREAK RESULTS!!! Get your picks in for UFC Abu Dhabi!<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

DDP and Alden Coria helped a lot of folks out last week, including our leader JKWI. I want to shout out Whipcreamfajita for their pick, though. They were the only one who went with Jose Delgado.<\/p>\n

Here’s what they said about that:<\/p>\n

Alright boys, I\u2019m jumping back in. Not playing it safe for an easy dub. Give me Delgado over Bashi. To me, I can see the ceiling for Austin bashi. I doubt he ever breaks into top 10.<\/p>\n

Now it’s time to pick for this weekend’s UFC Abu Dhabi. I’m going with Valter Walker to keep the heel hook streak going!<\/p>\n

UFC Abu Dhabi Main Event On Paramount+<\/a>:<\/p>\n

205 lbs.: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Bogdan Guskov (not Khalil Rountree Jr.<\/a>)<\/p>\n

UFC Abu Dhabi Main Card<\/p>\n

125 lbs.: Steve Erceg vs. Ramazan Temirov
265 lbs.: Rizvan Kuniev vs. Tyrell Fortune
170 lbs.: Islam Dulatov vs. Wellington Turman
155 lbs.: Magomed Zaynukov vs. Damian Rzepecki
170 lbs.: Saygid Izagakhmaev vs. Abubakar Vagaev<\/p>\n

UFC Abu Dhabi \u2018Prelims\u2019 Card <\/p>\n

265 lbs.: Valter Walker vs. Thomas Petersen
155 lbs.: Ismael Bonfim vs. Axel Sola
205 lbs.: Brendson Ribeiro vs. Magomed Tuchalov
155 lbs.: Nurullo Aliev vs. Mike Davis
170 lbs.: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Sam Patterson
205 lbs.: Dustin Jacoby vs. Muhammad Said
135 lbs.: Abdul Hussein vs. Cody Gibson<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Rec 1CommentsThin Stroke Comment Icon BubbleReplyRead 32 replies\"LAS<\/a><\/p>\n

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – AUGUST 09: (L-R) Gilbert Urbina kicks Uros Medic of Serbia in a welterweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on August 09, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Middleweight: Vlasto Cepo (-340)<\/a> vs. Gilbert Urbina (+250)
<\/a>Best Win for Cepo? Erhan Cartal For Urbina? Orion Cosce
Current Streak: Cepo deubts having won two straight, while Urbina has lost two in a row
X-Factor: Urbina is moving up to Middleweight
How these two match up: Strikers collide!<\/p>\n

Serbia\u2019s Cepo is a veteran of Oktagon and has experience in boxing as well. He\u2019s a fast-starter with genuine knockout power, unafraid to throw caution to the wind with a flurry of power punches. Urbina, meanwhile, was absolutely massive at Welterweight and used his range to beat up opponents at distance. It\u2019ll be interesting to see how he adjusts up 15 pounds. Perhaps his chin will hold up better without the weight cut, but he also won\u2019t enjoy his usual height and reach advantages.<\/p>\n

Generally, Urbina\u2019s UFC stint hasn\u2019t been particularly impressive. His most notable skill was being huge for the division, and that will no longer be the case here. I don\u2019t see Cepo as a future contender, but he\u2019s more experienced and has beaten better opposition. Furthermore, in this collision of men who don\u2019t usually see the judges\u2019 scorecards, Cepo is the more prolific knockout artist with fewer finishes against him.<\/p>\n

He\u2019s probably going to put hands on \u201cThe RGV Bad Boy.\u201d<\/p>\n

Prediction: Cepo via knockout<\/p>\n

\u2018X-Factor\u2019 Picks for 2026: 44-21 (1)<\/p>\n

\"Tim<\/a>\"MMATo checkout the latest UFC Belgrade fight card and rumors click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"This weekend (Sat., Aug. 1, 2026), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will venture forth to Belgrade Arena in Belgrade,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":831375,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[570],"tags":[64,63,786,40762,785,85,179146,19458,19457,7990,1647],"class_list":["post-831374","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mma","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-fighting","tag-latest-ufc-mma-news","tag-mma","tag-sports","tag-ufc-on-paramount","tag-ufc-odds","tag-ufc-predictions","tag-ufc-previews","tag-upcoming-ufc-events"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/831374","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=831374"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/831374\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/831375"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=831374"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=831374"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=831374"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}