{"id":831390,"date":"2026-07-29T14:01:17","date_gmt":"2026-07-29T14:01:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/831390\/"},"modified":"2026-07-29T14:01:17","modified_gmt":"2026-07-29T14:01:17","slug":"afl-2026-the-ladder-is-lying-about-geelong-cats-premiership-chances-first-crack-analysis-video-latest-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/831390\/","title":{"rendered":"AFL 2026: The ladder is lying about Geelong, Cats premiership chances, First Crack analysis, video, latest news"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The AFL ladder isn\u2019t telling us the full truth, and one big lie has become glaringly obvious. <\/p>\n<p>And it\u2019s set to throw a spanner in the September works, as Saints great Leigh Montagna explained on Wednesday night. <\/p>\n<p>Watch The 2026 AFLW Australia v Ireland International LIVE &amp; Free on Kayo Freebies Sat 1 Aug | <a href=\"https:\/\/kayosports.com.au\/en-AU\/welcome\/freebies?extcamp=fsaeditoriallinkafl-edt-fsp-lnk-awr-grc-afl-kyo&amp;channel=fsa&amp;campaign=fsacontra\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Register free now, no credit card required.<\/a><\/p>\n<p><img class=\"i-amphtml-fill-content i-amphtml-replaced-content\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/poster-fallback.png\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Entering Round 21, reigning grand finalist Geelong sits ninth on the ladder with a modest 11-8 record. <\/p>\n<p>And if it were any other year than this one, the footy landscape would be in meltdown over the underperforming Cats. <\/p>\n<p>Thursday night\u2019s Collingwood-Geelong clash would have been billed as critical for Chris Scott\u2019s mob, sitting outside the top eight. <\/p>\n<p>But any concerns over the Cats\u2019 flag candidacy have been masked by the expanded finals format, with Scott\u2019s men a near certainty to play finals. <\/p>\n<p>Still, the overwhelming evidence suggests Geelong is far better than the ninth-best team. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cSometimes, I think the ladder can lie,\u201d Montagna began on Fox Footy\u2019s First Crack Preview. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cAnd I could make a case that the Cats are still the second-best team in this competition, and probably the side that the premiership contenders won\u2019t want to face.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>MORE COVERAGE:<\/p>\n<p>MIDWEEK TACKLE: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxsports.com.au\/afl\/afl-trade-news-2026-tackle-the-headline-verdicts-on-seven-recruits-midweek-tackle-opinion-latest-news\/news-story\/c02104e3dd5d3a85d8036407dc8fc976\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Blues truth in undeniable Curnow reality; star\u2019s \u2018startling\u2019 fall-off \u2014 AFL\u2019s best, worst recruits graded<\/a><\/p>\n<p>ANALYSIS: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxsports.com.au\/afl\/department-of-trade\/afl-trade-news-rumours-whispers-2026-20-unsigned-names-flying-under-the-radar-christian-salem-jake-rogers-riley-hardeman-archie-perkins\/news-story\/7f223f50dd1eb3aae9114f03b4aa2bc4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">These 21 unsigned players are flying under the AFL trade radar. They can be \u201827\u2019s best bargains<\/a><\/p>\n<p>TRADE WHISPERS: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxsports.com.au\/afl\/department-of-trade\/afl-trade-news-rumours-whispers-2026-zac-bailey-adelaide-offer-same-length-as-brisbane-deal-max-ramsden-and-jack-scrimshaw-linked-to-north-melbourne-calsher-dear-future\/news-story\/4f47d511a1e6ff3750609b11868ae591\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Vic contender \u2018among clubs circling\u2019 Hawk; Pies lead race for top pick<\/a><\/p>\n<p>RD 21 TEAMS: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxsports.com.au\/afl\/afl-teams-round-21-2026-team-news-and-lineups-for-round-21-full-squads-ins-and-outs-selection-and-team-changes-latest-news\/news-story\/f29872b45081aa5a0d5151126e0e89bf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Cats\u2019 shock call on star, Danger decision as Pies get big early return for top-six eliminator<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Biggest 2026 recruits ANALYSED | 07:19<\/p>\n<p>Against the competition\u2019s top nine teams this season, Geelong has played 11 games for seven wins and four losses. <\/p>\n<p>And in those 11 matches, the Cats have ranked first for scoring, third for points against, first for ball movement, first for defending ball movement, and first for inside-50 differential. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cAs we get to finals, we want to start drilling down on the best versus the best, because that is the true indicator of how your football stacks up,\u201d Montagna said. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cOnly (the Cats) and Fremantle have a winning record against the top nine. Every other team has got a 50-50 record or worse. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cYou can see that their profile is the best in the competition &#8211; it\u2019s actually better than the Dockers\u2019 profile.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Leigh Montagna explains why the AFL ladder is lying to us.Source: FOX SPORTS<\/p>\n<p>Three of Geelong\u2019s four losses to top-nine opposition have come by incredibly slim margins; falling to Hawthorn by a point, Adelaide by a point, Fremantle by nine points. <\/p>\n<p>But despite the Cats\u2019 fearsome credentials against top teams, it\u2019s unlikely to make a difference in the premiership race if they can\u2019t clinch a top-six finish to avoid playing an extra final. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt all comes down to having to win this game against Collingwood, because they had to run the table,\u201d Montagna said. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cOnce they went on that run and lost some games, and they lost Jeremy Cameron, for them to finish in the top six &#8211; where we know you have to be to win the flag &#8211; they had to win their last six. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cThey\u2019ve ticked off two, against St Kilda and Melbourne, (and) this is the third. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cTheir last three have got some of the bottom teams, which I think they\u2019ll take care of business against, and then I think again we\u2019ll be talking about them as a premiership contender.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The dual All-Australian holds faith in the Cats to win it all even if they finish fifth or sixth. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cI still think so. I think that it gives them a really good chance,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cAnd depending on who finishes fourth, what it might look like &#8211; they\u2019ll take care of the wildcard team in the second week of finals. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cAnd then who knows what it could look like for the Cats.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Reid&#8217;s brilliance under the microscope | 03:11<\/p>\n<p>Montagna also singled out coach Chris Scott\u2019s recent moves to aid the side in recent weeks. <\/p>\n<p>Shannon Neale\u2019s role has been tweaked, while two forwards &#8211; after VFL stints &#8211; are back in the fray and paying dividends. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cI love what Chris Scott has been able to do with this team (after) losing two of your four best players in Max Holmes and Jeremy Cameron,\u201d Montagna said. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cHe\u2019s had to make some adjustments, and what he\u2019s done with Neale I think has been significant. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cNeale has always been the athlete that can get high up the ground &#8211; he\u2019s decided to play him deeper, particularly last week against Melbourne. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cAnd he\u2019s brought back the three musketeers. He\u2019s now got (Gryan) Miers, (Brad) Close and (Shaun) Mannagh back in this team and back in really good form.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Hawthorn&#8217;s crazy 2027 possible team | 03:52<\/p>\n<p>That trio has collectively nailed the \u2018money kick\u2019 over the past three seasons &#8211; ranking third, fourth and eighth respectively for marks from inside-50 kicks throughout that period. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe most important kick in footy \u2026 this sort of stuff going inside 50 is what separates them from the rest of the competition,\u201d Montagna added. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cBetween the three of them (against the Demons) they had 10 score assists. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cAnd what it allowed was Shannon Neale to get the most looks inside 50 he\u2019s had for the season &#8211; he had nine targets inside 50, 10 of his 13 disposals were inside 50. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cI just think it\u2019s a really nice look about them, so I love the way Chris Scott has been able to manufacture the new makeshift forward line, and I think it\u2019s going to hold them in really good stead. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s going to be a massive game (on Thursday night), and if they take care of Collingwood, just watch out, because they\u2019ll run the table, and they\u2019ll be in red-hot form.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The AFL ladder isn\u2019t telling us the full truth, and one big lie has become glaringly obvious. And&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":831391,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[560],"tags":[638,64,63,55,639,85],"class_list":["post-831390","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-afl","tag-afl","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-australian-football-league","tag-australianfootballleague","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/831390","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=831390"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/831390\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/831391"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=831390"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=831390"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=831390"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}