{"id":84054,"date":"2025-08-21T04:02:30","date_gmt":"2025-08-21T04:02:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/84054\/"},"modified":"2025-08-21T04:02:30","modified_gmt":"2025-08-21T04:02:30","slug":"ufc-shanghai-odds-best-betting-props-parlays-and-picks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/84054\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC Shanghai odds: Best betting props, parlays and picks"},"content":{"rendered":"

UFC Shanghai<\/a> goes down this weekend (Sat., Aug. 23, 2025) inside Mercedes-Benz Arena in Shanghai, China. The main event pitches a veteran Light Heavyweight against a young and hungry up and comer with Johnny Walker vs. Zhang Mingyang<\/a>. If Zhang can get a big win, in his home country, he could be knocking on the door of a Top 10 ranking next week<\/a>.<\/p>\n

UFC Shanghai\u2019s co-main event is an intriguing Featherweight tilt. Brian Ortega vs. Aljamain Sterling sees a former Featherweight title challenger take on a former Bantamweight champ, with Sterling making just his third appearance at 145 pounds.<\/p>\n

Rounding out ESPN+\u2018s main card on Saturday is Sergei Pavlovich vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta, Sumudaerji vs. Kevin Borjas and Kiefer Crosbie vs. Taiyilake Nueraji.<\/p>\n

UFC Shanghai\u2019s \u201cPrelims\u201d are headlined by Maheshate Hayisaer vs. Gauge Young. The undercard also has Lone\u2019er Kavanagh vs. Charles Johnson. Kavanagh isn\u2019t the only fighter on the card known for exciting fights, though. UFC Shanghai\u2019s \u201cPrelims\u201d also have space for the likes of Rongzhu, Yizha and Michel Pereira.<\/p>\n

As always, there\u2019s lots to bet on this card and we\u2019ve got odds for all the fights below:<\/p>\n

UFC Shanghai Main Card Money Line Odds<\/p>\n

\"Zhang<\/a><\/p>\n

Zhang Mingyang gets his first main event at UFC Shanghai. Josh Hedges\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Johnny Walker (+270) vs. Zhang Mingyang (-340)<\/p>\n

Yikes, someone must hate Johnny Walker in UFC\u2019s offices.<\/p>\n

Walker has been finished twice in a row, losing by uppercuts from Volkan Oezdemir (see it here<\/a>) and Magomed Ankalaev (see it here<\/a>). The Oezdemir loss was in June 2024. Since then, he has been matched up against killers Bogdan Guskov and Azamat Murzakanov. He withdrew from both of those. In a nod to the Joe Silva era, where every turned down fight brings you a tougher match-up, UFC have now put Walker against the hottest prospect in the division.<\/p>\n

Zhang carved up Anthony Smith in his last fight, making sure Smith got bloodied up before partaking in one of the longest and most saccharine retirement ceremonies UFC has ever conducted (see it here<\/a>). Before that, he plowed through Ozzy Diaz, Brendson Ribeiro and Tuco Tokkos.<\/p>\n

Zhang has been fighting professionally since he was 18 and it wasn\u2019t until 2020 (when he was 22) that he hit his stride. Before 2020, he was 7-6. But, since then, he\u2019s gone undefeated (12-0). All of his career 19 wins are by stoppage (13 T\/KOs, six submissions).<\/p>\n

I have concerns for Walker here.<\/p>\n

In his past two fights he\u2019s not seen the knockout blows coming and he\u2019s been wobbled and\/or put down with every clean shot that has landed. The amount of damage he has taken has made it less easy to enjoy Walker\u2019s mercurial and often silly character. The antics were fun when they were paired with someone who was competitive in his division. However, his shtick is now reading more jester than comedian.<\/p>\n

Walker\u2019s defense against significant strikes is 44 percent. And that\u2019s not good enough in a division where so many guys have one-shot knockout power. Zhang certainly has that and he lands his significant strikes at a way above average 64 percent clip.<\/p>\n

Zhang has only had four UFC fights. You need five for your stats to be considered in UFC\u2019s official stat leader categories. His 64 percent right now would put him second, behind Alex Pereira who has landed 64.4 percent of his significant strikes. Second place on that list right now belongs to Murzakanov, who has landed 58.2 percent. Walker\u2019s accuracy is 53 percent, which is good enough to be sniffing around the Top 10 in that category.<\/p>\n

Zhang\u2019s significant strikes landed per-minute stat is wild. In four contests. he\u2019s landed 10.91 significant strikes per-minute. The current leader in that stat is Carlos Ulberg, who has landed 6.82 significant strikes per-minute across nine tracked contests. The current leader in the stat, for all of UFC, is Joshua Van with 8.8 significant strikes per-minute.<\/p>\n

The most significant strikes Zhang landed in a fight was 63 in his last contest against Smith, which lasted little more than four minutes. Smith\u2019s toughness and ability to not get finished a few minutes earlier is the main reason Zhang landed that many. He needed just 17 significant strikes in each of his prior two bouts to elicit finishes.<\/p>\n

If I were to make a case for Walker, I would lean heavily on his size advantage. He\u2019s four inches taller than Zhang and he has a seven-inch reach advantage. Zhang\u2019s shots are rather loopy, so it might be difficult for him to close distance and land strikes \u2014 especially if Walker keeps him away with front kicks to the body. Walker is also very unpredictable, so there\u2019s a chance he catches Zhang coming in with something like a leaping knee. Walker is also, I presume, spending time with his brother Valter Walker (I\u2019m really clutching at straws now). Maybe his bro has been teaching him that heel hook that he\u2019s so good at?<\/a><\/p>\n

That\u2019s all I have for Walker and none of it really convinces me that Walker is going to be able to resist Zhang\u2019s ferocious fast start and all the power and volume he\u2019ll be throwing. I think Walker is going to go down again and the conversations around his chin are going to get louder.<\/p>\n

Vegas are showing Walker more respect than I was expecting. If I were an oddsmaker, I would have given him +500 or higher chances in this bout. I suppose Zhang\u2019s inexperience at this level is keeping that all in check. As it stands, -340 isn\u2019t that terrible on the moneyline in a fight that I am pretty certain is only going to go one way.<\/p>\n

Even so, there are better options out there.<\/p>\n

The round total is set at 1.5 rounds with the over at +230 and the under at -315. Those are very short odds for this round total. Vegas must think the only way Walker gets a win is with a quick knockout himself.<\/p>\n

Zhang by KO\/TKO\/DQ is a paltry -280. Those odds are too short for me on this kind of bet. Plus, I don\u2019t think it\u2019s out of the question that Zhang gets a submission. I can see him wrenching Walker\u2019s shoulder out of its socket for a kimura or for him to do the classic club-and-sub routine. Zhang by submission is +1200. I\u2019ll revisit that in my long shot section.<\/p>\n

Draft Kings\u2019 same game parlay for this fight has Zhang moneyline, KO\/TKO\/DQ method and under 4.5 rounds for -255. That\u2019s slightly tempting with those odds, but even so, I\u2019m still wary of those submissions.<\/p>\n

For my best bet I\u2019m looking at the winning round. Zhang to win in Round 1 is -160. Winning round, in general, is -200. I\u2019m both confident that this doesn\u2019t get out the first round and that Walker doesn\u2019t stun Zhang, so I\u2019ll go for the longer odds here.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Zhang Mingyang to win in Round 1 (-160)<\/p>\n

\"Brian<\/a><\/p>\n

Brian Ortega probably won\u2019t have to suffer through a stand-up war at UFC Shanghai. Photo by Christian Petersen\/Getty Images<\/p>\n

Brian Ortega (+225) vs. Aljamain Sterling (-278)<\/p>\n

Ortega took another beating last time out. He gave up 106 significant strikes to Diego Lopes and landed 63 on route to a unanimous decision loss. Before that, he submitted Yair Rodriguez, after getting dropped (see it here<\/a>). The Rodriguez fight was a make-up fight after an injury ruined their first attempt in Mexico City. Before that, Ortega was pasted by Alexander Volkanovski in a title fight, where he was hit 214 times. Ortega is most known for that Max Holloway fight where he was hit 290 times and even had Holloway trying to coach him mid-fight on how to guard against being punched in the side of the head.<\/p>\n

Sterling is 1-1 as a Featherweight after making the jump from Bantamweight. He left his old division after Sean O\u2019Malley knocked him out and took his belt in 2023 (see that here<\/a>). In his first 145-pound fight, he smothered Calvin Kattar. In his second, he was just about out-wrestled by Movsar Evloev.<\/p>\n

Thankfully for Ortega, Sterling is not an opponent who is going to beat him up on the feet. Sterling lands 4.41 significant strikes per-minute. That\u2019s a decent number, but Sterling\u2019s shots aren\u2019t that powerful so I\u2019m not expecting to see Ortega wading through most of this fight with that 1,000-yard stare we\u2019ve grown accustomed to seeing from him.<\/p>\n

Sterling is going to try and dominate this fight with takedowns and back control. Ortega probably fancies his chances on the feet, but will also be very confident of surviving on the ground with Sterling and possibly sweeping him and threatening with submissions.<\/p>\n

I think this is going to be a close fight with Sterling\u2019s wrestling and Ortega\u2019s grappling causing a bit of a stalemate. I think Sterling will get Ortega down, but in the scrambles and guard play that ensues, Ortega can do enough to give the judges a hard a time over determining who is winning in those positions.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve been more impressed by Sterling than Ortega lately and I think he had a really good showing against Evloev, who is the Featherweight not enough folks are talking about right now.<\/p>\n

Sterling is a decent-sized favorite in this match-up and I\u2019m somewhat tempted by his moneyline. Though, I am a little wary of that because I think Ortega\u2019s line is suffering from how bad he has looked against fighters who fight nothing like Sterling.<\/p>\n

This is a five-round fight, which feels a little odd to be honest. I think we are likely to go the distance, since I don\u2019t see either of these guys being able to finish this fight with strikes and I think both Sterling and Ortega\u2019s submission defenses are pretty high level.<\/p>\n

Ortega +5.5 at -120 is very tempting. If there\u2019s going to be a submission in this bout, I feel like Ortega might have more chances of pulling it off. His ground game might look pretty elite on Saturday morning, thanks to him being able to plan out moves and flow without his bell being rung constantly. And if we go to the scorecards, after five rounds, I doubt there\u2019s going to be a shutout either way. I think the scores could be all over the place and we might even see a split decision.<\/p>\n

Exact method of victory \u2014 decision is -200. That\u2019s also quite tempting. It\u2019s a toss up for me between Ortega plus the points and this bet. I\u2019ll go with the point spread, believing that Ortega can keep this close and go the distance.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Brian Ortega +5.5 (-120)<\/p>\n

\"Sergei<\/a><\/p>\n

Sergei Pavlovich will continue to try and climb back up the Heavyweight ladder at UFC Shanghai. Photo by Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Sergei Pavlovich (-245) vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+200)<\/p>\n

Pavlovich is coming off a very restrained win over Jairzinho Rozenstruik. The fight was terrible, with Pavlovich deciding to use lay-and-pray for long portions of the fight. That win came after he was frustrated and out-pointed by Alexander Volkov last year. In that fight, Pavlovich had no answer for Volkov\u2019s jab. Before that, he was ended by Tom Aspinall in about a minute (see that here<\/a>) for the interim Heavyweight belt.<\/p>\n

Cortes-Acosta has somehow managed to put together a five-fight win streak and improve his UFC record to 7-1. This has him knocking on the door of UFC\u2019s Heavyweight title picture. Last time out, he took a very close decision over Serghei Spivac. I scored the fight for Spivac. In that fight, Cortes-Acosta was wobbled by a shot and tried to play it off like he was taunting Spivac. Among Cortes-Acosta\u2019s other wins are the departed Robelis Despaigne and Andrei Arlovski and the human punching bag, Lukasz Brzeski.<\/p>\n

This is a tough fight to predict.<\/p>\n

Pavlovich has shown a tendency to fight down to his opposition lately. And Cortes-Acosta has shown an ability to avoid big power punchers with long reaches, while not firing back with much offense of his own. This could lead to a fight that is very similar to the Pavlovich vs. Rozenstruik fight, with Pavlovich looking too cautious to engage (likely due to memories of Aspinall finishing him and Volkov lighting him up). If that happens, then we might just see a leg kick fest and a lot of time spent up against the fence.<\/p>\n

Because of how Pavlovich has looked lately, I think there is value in Cortes-Acosta as the underdog.<\/p>\n

I think the oddsmakers are assuming the Pavlovich we see on Saturday is the same one that went undefeated and earned an interim title shot. I don\u2019t know if that\u2019s the case. This belief has the round total being set at 1.5. With Pavlovich going to decision in his last two fights, and Cortes-Acosta winning half his 14 pro fights by decision, I think that round total is way too low.<\/p>\n

Most people agree with me, the odds on the over are -175. But, that\u2019s still a good bet for me. I just don\u2019t see Pavlovich steamrolling over Cortes-Acosta in this fight and I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if we get a decision after a pretty dull affair.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-175)<\/p>\n

\"Will<\/a><\/p>\n

Will Sumudaerji put on a Fight of the Night at UFC Shanghai. Photo by Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Sumudaerji (-166) vs. Kevin Borjas (+140)<\/p>\n

Sumudaerji managed to earn a split decision over Mitch Raposo in his last fight. Sumudaerji earned the win thanks to his striking, but was taken down a lot. That was his first win since 2021. During his barren spell, he lost a decision to Charles Johnson, was submitted by Tim Elliott and was submitted by Matt Schnell in a \u201cFight of the Year\u201d candidate (see it here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Borjas put in a complete performance to beat Ronald Rodriguez last time out, hurting him on the feet. That was Borjas\u2019 first win inside the Octagon (not including his obligatory Contender Series fight).<\/p>\n

When you think of Sumudaerji, you think of someone who takes a lot of punishment. But that\u2019s really just because of that epic war he had with Schnell. His numbers are pretty surprising. He\u2019s actually got an excellent 60 percent defense against sig. strikes and he only absorbs 2.63 significant strikes per-minute.<\/p>\n

His own striking is pretty potent, too, albeit not terribly accurate (50 percent accuracy on significant strikes). Borjas has been involved in some back and forth brawls in his short UFC career and he\u2019s actually been hit quite a lot. His defense against sig. strikes is 51 percent and he absorbs an above average 5.99 significant strikes a minute. He only lands 5.10. That negative differential is always a red flag for me.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m liking Sumudaerji in this match-up and I think he\u2019s going to be leading the dance on the feet. I don\u2019t think he\u2019ll get a finish, but I think he will pick up a pretty convincing decision here.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Sumudaerji moneyline (-166)<\/p>\n

\"Kiefer<\/a><\/p>\n

Kiefer Crosbie will continue to hunt for his first UFC win at UFC Shanghai. Photo by Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images<\/p>\n

Taiyilake Nueraji (-440) vs. Kiefer Crosbie (+340)<\/p>\n

Crosbie has not looked cut out for UFC life since joining the promotion in 2023. He lost his first fight in the first round to Kevin Jousset, by submission. And he lost his second fight in the first round to Sam Patterson, by submission (see it here<\/a>). In both those fights, he seemed to have a total lack of understanding for fundamental grappling.<\/p>\n

He was supposed to fight veteran Kenan Song at this event. However, Song pulled out so they\u2019ve hooked Taiyilake off the regional circuit to make up the numbers. He\u2019s 11-1 with all his wins being finishes.<\/p>\n

Crosbie is not a very good mixed martial artist. I know next to nothing about Taiyilake, but everything I\u2019ve seen of Crosbie makes me think a hot shot KO artist fighting at home is going to sleep him.<\/p>\n

The round total for this one is 1.5 with the under at -200 and the over at +154. This is a test of how little faith I have in Crosbie. With Taiyilake unproven at this level, I\u2019m tempted to go with the over, thinking Crosbie might be able to survive a few rounds. But, I really do think Crosbie is not cut out for this, so ultimately I\u2019m going to go with the under.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-200)<\/p>\n

\"Maheshate<\/a><\/p>\n

Maheshate will have plenty of crowd support at UFC Shanghai. Photo by Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Maheshate Hayisaer (+110) vs. Gauge Young (-130)<\/p>\n

Maheshate is 2-3 in UFC and is coming off a decision loss to Nikolas Motta. Prior to that he took a split decision win over Gabriel Benitez. His most notable win is a knockout over Steve Garcia (see it here<\/a>) in 2022. That knockout set Garcia on a six-fight win streak that most recently included him dominating Calvin Kattar.<\/p>\n

Young did UFC a solid by coming in on short notice to fight Evan Elder in April. He lost the decision there. His previous experience in UFC was a decision loss to Quillan Salkilld on Contender Series. The UFC are repaying Young with a fight where he will probably spend more flying his corner men out than he will getting paid to actually fight (even with a win bonus).<\/p>\n

Both Maheshate and Young have negative significant striking differentials. Young\u2019s numbers (in particular his 6.53 sig. strikes absorbed per minute) are inflated by him only having two UFC fights, though. In his second fight he gave up 115 strikes. Maheshate is not a threat to throw or land much volume, though. Maheshate has a terrible 29 percent accuracy on significant strikes. That has to be one of the lowest in the promotion.<\/p>\n

I think this could go like Maheshate\u2019s last fight in China, where he was outworked by Motta. Young might not have much upside, but I think he\u2019s going to do enough to get a decision here.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Gauge Young moneyline (-130)<\/p>\n

Betting on sports involves risk, so please only wager amounts you can afford to lose. If you or someone you know if struggling with gambling help can be found with the organizations listed below:<\/p>\n

USA: National Problem Gambling Helpline \u2014 Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER to receive support and learn about available services.UK: GamCare – Call 0808 8020 133 to speak to an advisor about gambling (or visit gamecare.org.uk for live chat and forum options).Canada: Visit responsiblegambling.org for resources on helplines in Canada\u2019s various provinces and territories.Australia\/New Zealand: National Gambling Helpline \u2014 Call (800) 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.<\/p>\n

UFC Shanghai \u2018Prelims\u2019 Under Card Odds<\/p>\n

\"Lone\u2019er<\/a><\/p>\n

Lone\u2019er Kavanagh meets his toughest test at UFC Shanghai. Justin Setterfield\/Getty Images<\/p>\n

Lone\u2019er Kavanagh (-205) vs. Charles Johnson (+170)<\/p>\n

Kavanagh has kept his undefeated record intact through four appearances in the Octagon. He won his Contender Series fight with a first round knockout and then took decisions over Jose Ochoa and Felipe dos Santos. Both those guys are very strong Flyweights (despite the fact dos Santos was shown the door recently).<\/p>\n

Johnson had his four-fight win streak snapped by Ramazan Temirov last time out. Prior to that, he beat Sumudaerji and KO\u2019d Flyweight du jour Joshua Van (see it here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

This could be our \u201cFight of the Night.\u201d Kavanagh\u2019s style is very easy on the eye and Johnson is not adverse to throwing down and having a war.<\/p>\n

Johnson lost to Temirov because he was overpowered in the first two rounds. He almost won it at the end, though, through good cardio, good boxing and a lot of motivation to try and win the fight.<\/p>\n

Kavanagh is not a fighting fire hydrant like Temirov, though. I don\u2019t think he\u2019s going to beast on Johnson and sap his strength early. This could mean Johnson is able to get off to a good start. If that happens, he\u2019s a serious threat to hand Kavanagh his first pro loss.<\/p>\n

I kind of hope that happens, that would give us a great fight. Either way, though, I don\u2019t think there\u2019s too much between who these fighters are right now. I do think Kavanagh has a lot more upside, though.<\/p>\n

The round total is 2.5 and the over is -395. I\u2019m disappointed those odds aren\u2019t longer, so then that bet could bail me out of making a pick here. I\u2019m going to pick Johnson, though, believing he might carry on from that good third round against Temirov and look to start this fight with a fire under him.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Charles Johnson moneyline (+170)<\/p>\n

\"Rongzhu<\/a><\/p>\n

Rongzhu showed up lat time out. Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Rongzhu (-250) vs. Austin Hubbard (+205)<\/p>\n

Rongzhu fought an awesome fight against highly-touted prospect, Kody Steele, last time out. As an underdog, he lit up Steele with his striking and earned \u201cFight of the Night\u201d honors. Before that, he lost to Chris Padilla due to a doctor\u2019s stoppage, after an elbow strike caused his eye to swell shut.<\/p>\n

Hubbard has lost back-to-back split decisions against MarQuel Mederos and Alexander Hernandez. In both those fights, he failed to get out of first gear and really commit to any kind of offense, whether it be striking or his so-called strong suit, wrestling.<\/p>\n

I really like watching Rongzhu fight. He does it with a lot of verve and desire to win. Hubbard does not do that. He always looks like he\u2019s trying to figure out how and why he got here. Hubbard\u2019s lack of conviction is enough for me to fade him here, especially when his striking seems a step below Rongzhu\u2019s and given how good Rongzhu\u2019s takedown defense is (84 percent).<\/p>\n

Best bet: Rongzhu moneyline (-250)<\/p>\n

\"Michel<\/a><\/p>\n

Michel Pereira will look to get his groove back at UFC Shanghai. Alexandre Loureiro\/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images<\/p>\n

Michel Pereira (-265) vs. Kyle Daukaus (+215)<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t know what\u2019s going on with Pereira. His last fight, with Abus Magomedov, may be one of the worst fights of the year. He put on a flashy walkout and then did next to nothing in the fight. Magomedov didn\u2019t do much more than that, but he did wobble Pereira once or twice. Before that Pereira took one of the worst beatdowns I\u2019ve seen in recent memory. That was to Anthony Hernandez, though, so you can forgive some of that.<\/p>\n

Daukus is back with UFC for the first time since 2022, when he lost to Eryk Anders and Roman Dolidze, both by technical knockout. Since then, he\u2019s been a champ in CFFC.<\/p>\n

Oh boy\u2026 what to do with this fight.<\/p>\n

I have serious questions over what Pereira has left in the tank after these two most recent displays. Daukaus isn\u2019t UFC quality, but his length and wrestling might be enough to beat up on an out of sorts Pereira. If Pereira comes out like in the past, full of confidence and willing to blitz with fierce and bizarre striking combos, then I think that all will be too much for the slow and hittable Daukaus.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s just hard to know which Pereira shows up. If it\u2019s the good Pereira, then I think he gets a finish. If it\u2019s the bad Pereira, then I think we are going the distance. The round total is 1.5, which is low. I think I\u2019ll take the over here to try and find that happy medium between the two Pereira\u2019s.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-188)<\/p>\n

\"Yizha<\/a><\/p>\n

Yizha fought well in defeat last time out. Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images<\/p>\n

Yizha (-1200) vs. Westin Wilson (+750)<\/p>\n

Yizha had a war with the very good Gabriel Santos in his last fight. He was second best for that whole fight and lost an obvious decision, but he showed a lot of toughness and grit. He got that Santos fight off a successful run in Road to UFC. That was his second stint on the show. His first run ended with a split decision loss to Jeong Yeong Lee. I think UFC brought him back a second time because he puts on good fights.<\/p>\n

The 36-year-old Wilson got his first UFC win in his last fight (which was over a year ago). He submitted Jeka Saragih with a triangle armbar in the first round (see it here<\/a>). He got that win after being fed into the wood chipper for his first two bouts, with technical knockout losses to Jean Silva and Joanderson Brito.<\/p>\n

Right now Yizha is one of the biggest favorites in UFC history. And a lot of that is down to how ineffective Wilson has been for the bulk of his time in the Octagon. I\u2019ve already written a lot about significant strike differential, but get a load of Wilson\u2019s \u2014 he lands just 1.68 significant strikes per-minute (a very low number) and he absorbs 5.72 per-minute (a very high number). Usually, when it comes to these negative differentials, the numbers are pretty similar (like with Yizha, who lands 2.8 and absorbs 2.83).<\/p>\n

Wilson being this hittable is a big problem in this match-up. Yizha has good boxing and he should be able to find Wilson\u2019s chin. The round total is 1.5 and the under is -175. I\u2019m taking that because I only have that and the moneyline to choose from and no one should ever be betting on -1200 odds.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-175)<\/p>\n

\"Xiao<\/a><\/p>\n

Xiao Long heads into UFC Shanghai off a big win. Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Xiao Long (+110) vs. Su Young You (-130)<\/p>\n

Long\u2019s striking was on point in his last fight. He put down Quang Le in the third round after touching him up throughout the fight (see it here<\/a>). Prior to that he lost a split decision to Chang Ho Lee. Lee looked like a beast when he beat up Cortavious Romious earlier this year.<\/p>\n

You is 2-0 in UFC (not including his two wins on Road to UFC). Last time out, he took a decision over AJ Cunningham. He dominated Cunningham with his wrestling in that bout.<\/p>\n

This is a real coin flip. I like Long\u2019s striking. But, I really like You\u2019s wrestling. I think You is going to be capable of nullifying Long\u2019s striking more than Long is able to nullify his wrestling.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Su Young Yu moneyline (-130)<\/p>\n

\"The<\/a><\/p>\n

The only way is up for Diyar Nurgozhay at UFC Shanghai. Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Diyar Nurgozhay (+140) vs. Uran Satybaldiev (-166)<\/p>\n

Nurgozhay came off his Contender Series win and laid a big ol\u2019 egg in the Octagon for his proper debut. He missed weight for his fight with Brendson Ribeiro and then looked terrible in the fight itself. He was tagged by Ribeiro, who himself has looked terrible more than once in the Octagon, and was then submitted with a kimura (see it here<\/a>). He was a -400 favorite for that fight.<\/p>\n

Satybaldiev lost his UFC debut, too. He was out-worked by Martin Buday (who was recently released after he beat Marcus Buchecha). That was at Heavyweight, on short notice. Satybaldiev vacated his LFA Light Heavyweight title to do that.<\/p>\n

I have very low expectations for both of these guys and this fight itself. I think we could be in for some very lazy and haphazard Light Heavyweight MMA. I suppose you could chalk up both their past performances as \u201cOctagon jitters.\u201d That would be nice, maybe we would get a decent contest out of them here then.<\/p>\n

My bet will be on Satybaldiev and it\u2019s mostly because of his size. He\u2019ll have five inches of reach on Nurgozhay and he\u2019s just a lot thicker. I think that will help drain Nurgozhay in the clinch on route to a decision win.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Uran Satybaldiev moneyline (-166)<\/p>\n

\"Zhang<\/a><\/p>\n

Zhang Mingyang is not getting paid by the hour at UFC Shanghai. Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a couple of long shots for Saturday\u2019s action.<\/p>\n

Johnny Walker vs. Zhang Mingyang \u2014 Fight to End by Submission (+550)<\/p>\n

This fight probably ends in a knockout by Zhang. However, I do think there\u2019s a chance Zhang knocks Walker down and, during Walker\u2019s subsequent flailing around, a submission opportunity could present himself. There\u2019s also the chance that Walker has studied some leg locks under his brother. If Walker has awareness of where he is in his career right now and how much damage he has taken, he would be wise to investigate this as a route to victory (especially against Zhang). Fighters being self-aware is never a sure thing, though. Either way, I\u2019ll take a little punt on this one ending with a tap out.<\/p>\n

Aljamain Sterling to win by Split\/Majority decision (+500)<\/p>\n

I think Sterling vs. Ortega is a very close fight and that it will go the distance, with neither Ortega or Sterling having the skill set that has traditionally caused either man a lot of pain and regret. With this fight going five rounds, there\u2019s a lot of room for scorecards to disagree with each other. Due to how this fight will play out, with scrambles on the ground, reversals, sub attempts from the bottom, etc., there will likely be lots of different ways to interpret who won a given round. All that spells out a likely split or majority decision for me. I think Sterling likely gets that decision, due to how much top and back control time I think he\u2019ll suck up.<\/p>\n

Two-bet parlay: Charles Johnson and Waldo Cortes-Acosta to win (+710)<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve put two underdogs together here. I think Charles Johnson is a very stiff test for the young Lone\u2019er Kavanagh and that we might see Johnson edge past him after a very fun fight. I think Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Sergei Pavlovich might be the opposite of a fun fight. I think there\u2019s a real chance that Pavlovich under performs again and that he gets sucked into a long and boring fight with Cortes-Acosta. If that happens, Cortes-Acosta is just as likely to win as the favored Pavlovich.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

0<\/p>\n

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT MONSTERS!<\/a> Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to Shanghai, China, on Sat., Aug. 23, 2025, with UFC Shanghai: \u201cWalker vs. Zhang\u201d inside Shanghai Indoor Stadium. In the main event, explosive 205-pound standout, Johnny Walker, faces fast-rising knockout artist, Zhang Mingyang, in a high-stakes clash<\/a> scheduled for five, five-minute rounds. In UFC Shanghai\u2019s co-main event, top-ranked Featherweight contenders<\/a>, Brian Ortega vs. Aljamain Sterling, square off, both aiming to solidify their spot in the 145-pound title picture.<\/p>\n

Read More<\/p>\n

Remember that MMAmania.com<\/a> will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Shanghai<\/a> fight card, starting with the ESPN+<\/a> \u201cPrelims\u201d matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 3 a.m. ET, before the main card start time at 6 a.m. ET (also on ESPN+<\/a>).<\/p>\n

To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Shanghai: \u201cWalker vs. Zhang\u201d news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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