{"id":842562,"date":"2026-08-03T23:06:15","date_gmt":"2026-08-03T23:06:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/842562\/"},"modified":"2026-08-03T23:06:15","modified_gmt":"2026-08-03T23:06:15","slug":"afl-2026-power-rankings-after-round-21","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/842562\/","title":{"rendered":"AFL 2026, Power Rankings after Round 21"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Welcome back to the Power Rankings.<\/p>\n<p>The virtually-certain minor premiers look unstoppable. And running through their challengers, there\u2019s only one team without a clear flaw.<\/p>\n<p>Watch every match of every round of the AFL Premiership Season LIVE and ad-break free during play on FOX FOOTY, available on Kayo Sports | New to Kayo? <a href=\"https:\/\/kayosports.com.au\/en-AU\/welcome\/afl?extcamp=fsaeditoriallinkafl-edt-fsp-lnk-awr-grc-afl-kyo&amp;channel=fsa&amp;campaign=fsacontra\" title=\"kayosports.com.au\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">Join now and get your first month for just $1<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><img class=\"i-amphtml-fill-content i-amphtml-replaced-content\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/poster-fallback.png\"\/><\/p>\n<p>See our ranking of every AFL club from best to worst after Round 21 below!<\/p>\n<p>How do the Power Rankings work? We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier and\/or improve going forward. It\u2019s a little bit \u2018who\u2019s hot and who\u2019s not\u2019; part predictive, part analysis of what\u2019s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we\u2019d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.<\/p>\n<p>All times AEST.<\/p>\n<p>See the Fox Footy Power Rankings after Round 21.Source: FOX SPORTS<\/p>\n<p>1. FREMANTLE (18-2, 147.3%)<\/p>\n<p>Last week: Ranked 1st, def Western Bulldogs by 37 points<\/p>\n<p>The Dockers actually have some interesting decisions to make over the next three weeks, even though the games kinda don\u2019t matter. They can\u2019t be resting players for this week\u2019s trip to the MCG &#8211; they need to take advantage of a rare visit to the Grand Final\u2019s home venue, and they still need one more win to officially clinch the minor premiership anyway. But in Rounds 23 and 24, when they\u2019re presumably irrelevant games in a competitive sense, how do the Dockers keep their motivation levels high? And how many players do they manage? You can tell, based on how they\u2019ve treated the likes of Hayden Young thus far, that Justin Longmuir won\u2019t be conservative. And if you\u2019re worried about rust in the qualifying final, you don\u2019t want guys having two or three weeks off. It\u2019s all a good test of Longmuir\u2019s coaching acumen.<\/p>\n<p>This week: Melbourne at the MCG, Saturday 1:15pm<\/p>\n<p>Longmuir: &#8220;There&#8217;s bigger fish to fry&#8221; | 09:21<\/p>\n<p>2. HAWTHORN (14-5-1, 123.7%)<\/p>\n<p>Last week: Ranked 3rd, def North Melbourne by 16 points<\/p>\n<p>It still feels like nobody is talking about Hawthorn as the Dockers\u2019 biggest challenger, but when you run through everyone\u2019s flaws, it sure seems like Sam Mitchell\u2019s men look the best? Even if they lose to Brisbane this Friday night they should make the top four, and probably with a favourable finals bracket, with a qualifying final vs Sydney appearing pretty likely. That gives them a great chance of a home prelim. Home ground advantage is also on their side more generally as an MCG tenant. And they\u2019re the only team that can both compete with Fremantle offensively while still being elite defensively; the Hawks are third behind the Crows in points allowed, but their underlying metrics like inside 50s allowed and points from turnover are better. And doesn\u2019t it just sound right, narratively, that Fremantle\u2019s second Grand Final would feature the same opponent as their first?<\/p>\n<p>This week: Brisbane at the Gabba, Friday 7:40pm<\/p>\n<p>Aussies pump Ireland in historical clash | 02:03<\/p>\n<p>3. BRISBANE LIONS (13-7, 114.8%)<\/p>\n<p>Last week: Ranked 2nd, lost to Carlton by 76 points<\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s their flaw in the premiership race? Quite clearly, their defence. Part of Saturday night\u2019s problems were down to personnel but that can\u2019t be the only reason they allowed seven million points to Carlton. Last year they were borderline in the famous Fox Footy premiership window, sitting sixth for points allowed, and allowed a massive score in their first final to prove defence was still an issue&#8230; before winning three straight finals and the flag to make the point moot. Nobody has ranked outside the top six and won the flag since 1999, when the Kangaroos ranked 10th. Right now the Lions are a woeful 13th. We\u2019re not going to give up on them because of just one game; but their actual problem isn\u2019t about just one game. In their current state, at some point in September they will get exposed defensively by a really good attack, and it will end their season. Something must change.<\/p>\n<p>This week: Hawthorn at the Gabba, Friday 7:40pm<\/p>\n<p>Stengle and Hill officially depart clubs | 00:57<\/p>\n<p>4. GEELONG (12-8, 117.2%)<\/p>\n<p>Last week: Ranked 5th, def Collingwood by 25 points<\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s their flaw in the premiership race? The main one would be the absence of their two best players &#8211; but their ladder position is also going to make things difficult. The Cats might even be the second-best team in the comp, particularly when you consider their numbers against the best sides. But even an elite team is unlikely to beat four contenders in a row, which they\u2019ll need to do if they can\u2019t crack the top four. (And even if they squeak into fourth, they\u2019re gonna have to play Freo away in their qualifying final, at least without Max Holmes&#8230; though at least they\u2019d be on a path to play Hawthorn or Sydney in a prelim which sounds OK?) Throw in a defence that has been extremely leaky at times &#8211; they\u2019re OK overall but have allowed the fifth-most shots on goal, which means any team that kicks particularly straight can take advantage &#8211; and there\u2019s just enough holes in their resume. Having said all that, they\u2019ve definitely got a better chance of winning the flag than most people were giving them three weeks ago. A Cats-Freo Grand Final match-up definitely wouldn\u2019t shock us.<\/p>\n<p>This week: Essendon at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm<\/p>\n<p>Geelong climb into the TOP 6 | 03:19<\/p>\n<p>5. SYDNEY SWANS (15-5, 129.5%)<\/p>\n<p>Last week: Ranked 4th, def St Kilda by 19 points<\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s their flaw in the premiership race? Well, this one\u2019s pretty easy, especially after the horrific injury for Will Edwards who has been quietly fantastic in their back six. While the Swans rank fifth for points conceded they\u2019re a bit flattered by a few abnormally low scores kicked against them &#8211; they\u2019ve allowed 13 goals or more in seven of their past eight matches. And of course, there\u2019s the matter of their 2-5 record against the top seven. Always a problem come finals time when you can\u2019t consistently beat good teams, because the finals is where all the good teams are.<\/p>\n<p>This week: Port Adelaide at the SCG, Saturday 4:15pm<\/p>\n<p>Swans survive major upset scare | 03:37<\/p>\n<p>6. ADELAIDE CROWS (13-7, 117.6%)<\/p>\n<p>Last week: Ranked 6th, def Essendon by 72 points<\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s their flaw in the premiership race? It\u2019s still all about their ball movement, which limits their attacking prowess against the best defences. If they\u2019re going to beat elite teams in September they\u2019re basically gonna have to scrap their way there, having scored an average of 74 points in their games against the rest of the top seven &#8211; and never more than 87. They rank just 15th for going from defensive 50 to forward 50 and while finals games are usually often a bit scrappier, meaning perfect end-to-end ball movement is at a premium, that\u2019s a real problem that\u2019s been hanging over their heads for a couple of years now. The Crows can make the top four, which would certainly help, but even that best-case scenario probably has them in a semi-final against someone like Brisbane or Geelong. Would you trust them to win that AND an away prelim?<\/p>\n<p>This week: Richmond at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:35pm<\/p>\n<p>Crows move into top 4 with Dons win | 02:45<\/p>\n<p>7. MELBOURNE (13-7, 107.8%)<\/p>\n<p>Last week: Ranked 7th, def Gold Coast by 9 points<\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s their flaw in the premiership race? Well, as it stands they\u2019re the favourite for 7th, and they very much feel like the clear seventh of seven. They\u2019re very good offensively, but not elite. They\u2019ve become pretty good defensively, but definitely aren\u2019t elite. And it\u2019s still just a bit hard to wrap our heads around the idea of the Demons as a genuine flag contender given our priors. They can absolutely win a couple of finals, maybe even sneak into prelim final weekend if everything goes right, but it\u2019d be crazy if they went any further than that. But the Grand Final IS at the MCG, so they\u2019ve got that going for them&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>This week: Fremantle at the MCG, Saturday 1:15pm<\/p>\n<p>Dimma&#8217;s worst run continues vs Dees | 02:11<\/p>\n<p>8. COLLINGWOOD (11-8-1, 105.6%)<\/p>\n<p>Last week: Ranked 8th, lost to Geelong by 25 points<\/p>\n<p>Craig McRae has done an incredible job just getting the Magpies to this point, turning a team that won just five of its first 13 matches into a brief top-six threat, especially given the injury plague they\u2019ve been playing through. With Brisbane and Hawthorn still to come &#8211; heck, even West Coast away is a danger game, given how close the Eagles got to spoiling Pendles\u2019 big day &#8211; they\u2019re surely not escaping the wildcard from here and that\u2019s what they are. A pretty good list, currently only good because of its availability limitations, being squeezed for every drop of talent it\u2019s got. They can absolutely win what looks like a seemingly inevitable wildcard final against the Bulldogs, and then they\u2019d probably get Brisbane, Adelaide or Geelong away (away*, in the Cats\u2019 case) in an elimination final. Good luck.<\/p>\n<p>This week: West Coast at Optus Stadium, Sunday 4:10pm<\/p>\n<p>Johnson&#8217;s bold Pendles call | 02:34<\/p>\n<p>9. WESTERN BULLDOGS (12-8, 94.8%)<\/p>\n<p>Last week: Ranked 9th, lost to Fremantle by 37 points<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s definitely no point panicking just yet, but if the Bulldogs can\u2019t nab their 13th win of the year this Thursday night against North Melbourne, it could be squeaky bum time. While the machinations required for the Bulldogs to miss the finals with 12 wins are tricky, they\u2019re within the realms of possibility. The Dogs would have to lose to the Roos, Blues and Demons, and then two of these happen: St Kilda beats Carlton, Richmond and Gold Coast; Carlton beats St Kilda OR a Fremantle side resting their best players; GWS beats Gold Coast, West Coast and Adelaide (away). We\u2019d suggest the Bulldogs are better off if Carlton beats St Kilda because the Saints should definitely win their last two, so that\u2019s your rooting interest on Sunday night sorted. Or, you know, just beat North, like you always do!<\/p>\n<p>This week: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm<\/p>\n<p>Bevo weighs in on tanking | 01:31<\/p>\n<p>10. CARLTON (10-10, 97%)<\/p>\n<p>Last week: Ranked 12th, def Brisbane by 76 points<\/p>\n<p>There are a couple of games every season where you\u2019re watching and just laughing to yourself at the absurdity of it. (Often they involve Carlton losing, so this would&#8217;ve been a nice change for their fans.) It\u2019s still worth repeating how incredible their current situation is &#8211; they are one game clear inside the top 10, just 12 weeks after being equal-last with Essendon and Richmond. Gold Coast was fourth at that time, and is now 14th (which is more about them than the Blues, but anyway). We\u2019re still unsure who we\u2019re going to tip in Sunday night\u2019s mini elimination final against St Kilda but it\u2019s hard to argue with nine wins from their past 11 games&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>This week: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 7:20pm<\/p>\n<p>11. ST KILDA (9-11, 104.3%)<\/p>\n<p>Last week: Ranked 10th, lost to Sydney by 19 points<\/p>\n<p>If the Saints play finals, they\u2019ll do it without having beaten a top-10 team, which will definitely get a run in the build-up to their wildcard game. That\u2019s a bit unfair because if they finish 10th they\u2019ll almost certainly have done it by beating Carlton and GWS &#8211; the direct competitors for that spot &#8211; twice each. They will deserve to be best-of-the-rest. And then they\u2019ll get a shot at Melbourne, Geelong, Adelaide or Brisbane in that wildcard game&#8230; and probably lose, but still, they\u2019ll have earned the chance!<\/p>\n<p>This week: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 7:20pm<\/p>\n<p>AFLW stars call for more double headers | 01:19<\/p>\n<p>12. GWS GIANTS (9-11, 99%)<\/p>\n<p>Last week: Ranked 11th, def Port Adelaide by 12 points<\/p>\n<p>They\u2019re not quite in no man\u2019s land, but they\u2019re in that awkward spot where you\u2019re in the finals race, but you\u2019re kinda not, even though it\u2019s definitely feasible that you\u2019ll get there. Under the top eight system they could\u2019ve just given up and started planning for 2027 but now they&#8217;re either being given hope or false hope, depending on your perspective. Looking at their injury list there are so many listings of \u2018season\u2019 that it\u2019s hard to be optimistic even if they sneak into 10th; plus a definitive result of not making finals can make tough list decisions easier to accept internally.<\/p>\n<p>This week: Gold Coast at Manuka Oval, Sunday 1:10pm<\/p>\n<p>GWS Giants keep wildcard hopes alive | 01:00<\/p>\n<p>13. PORT ADELAIDE (6-14, 95.1%)<\/p>\n<p>Last week: Ranked 13th, lost to GWS by 12 points<\/p>\n<p>They did well to avoid winning against the Giants as they\u2019re now almost locked into the bottom five. It means they\u2019re still eligible for the (admittedly unlikely) scenario where they get a free end-of-first-round pick for their pick being moved back by someone making a bid. It\u2019s unlikely because Dougie Cochrane still looks like the certain No.1 selection, despite a quiet six-disposal SANFL debut on the weekend. Plus, Richmond now being 17th is going to make it much harder for them to get Pick 1, given the potential scenario where Zak Butters does the team thing and asks to take his talents to Punt Road.<\/p>\n<p>This week: Sydney at the SCG, Saturday 4:15pm<\/p>\n<p>14. GOLD COAST SUNS (7-13, 94.7%)<\/p>\n<p>Last week: Ranked 15th, lost to Melbourne by 9 points<\/p>\n<p>The Suns aren\u2019t \u2018lose 10 games in a row\u2019 bad, even though they\u2019ve lost 10 games in a row &#8211; becoming the first team in 99 years to do that AND finish a round on top of the ladder in the same season. They keep just falling short against mid-table sides; so their true performance level is around 11th or 12th-best, but they\u2019ve had a very tough draw. Damien Hardwick was, broadly speaking, correct when he said this is probably just a down year for the Suns and the strength of the list overall means they\u2019ll bounce back. The Fremantle comparison is reasonable. But the Fremantle comparison also means we need to question Hardwick, just as Longmuir was being questioned coming into 2026 &#8211; if the Dockers hadn\u2019t taken this giant leap forwards, and remained a 7th to 10th type of team, his job would\u2019ve been on the line. Hardwick isn\u2019t going any time soon, because his pedigree gives him more job security than most. But if the Suns don\u2019t play finals in 2027, he\u2019ll have footy\u2019s hottest seat entering 2028 &#8211; if he\u2019s still sitting in it at all.<\/p>\n<p>This week: GWS at Manuka Oval, Sunday 1:10pm<\/p>\n<p>Hardwick frustrated by Dees loss | 05:38<\/p>\n<p>15. NORTH MELBOURNE (8-12, 89.3%)<\/p>\n<p>Last week: Ranked 14th, lost to Hawthorn by 16 points<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019ll say it until people stop saying the opposite &#8211; North Melbourne has progressed this year. Their percentage of 89.3 would be their best since 2019\u2019s 99.5; they\u2019ve barely even been above the low 70s this decade! Yes, they\u2019ve taken advantage of an easy draw. Between 2020 and 2025 it was not possible for North Melbourne to have an easy draw because they were the easy draw! If they are still mediocre next year then sure, we can talk about Alastair Clarkson\u2019s job, but it\u2019s crazy to do it right now.<\/p>\n<p>This week: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm<\/p>\n<p>16. WEST COAST EAGLES (4-16, 70.8%)<\/p>\n<p>Last week: Ranked 16th, lost to Richmond by 11 points<\/p>\n<p>Our view that goalkicking is, broadly speaking, random is being severely tested by Jake Waterman\u2019s yips. Obviously some players are better kicks than others but over a longer period, and certainly on the team level, it balances out. Waterman, sadly, has now had a long period costing West Coast games &#8211; David King estimated they\u2019ve lost three times this year due to his misses. That might sound harsh, and he\u2019s doing a lot right to generate the chances in the first place; plus it\u2019s better this is happening now, instead of a year where the Eagles were trying to push for the finals. But Waterman\u2019s emotional reaction when kicking an easy one at one stage against Richmond showed he knows how badly things are going. We hope he can find a fix.<\/p>\n<p>This week: Collingwood at Optus Stadium, Sunday 4:10pm<\/p>\n<p>Tigers go above Bombers after gutsy win | 02:33<\/p>\n<p>17. RICHMOND (3-17, 62.8%)<\/p>\n<p>Last week: Ranked 18th, def West Coast by 11 points<\/p>\n<p>This week: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:35pm<\/p>\n<p>18. ESSENDON (2-18, 64.4%)<\/p>\n<p>Last week: Ranked 17th, lost to Adelaide by 72 points<\/p>\n<p>This week: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm<\/p>\n<p>In the end, the Tigers\u2019 head-to-head win over the Bombers looks set to decide the wooden spoon, which is probably the fairest result (even if Essendon\u2019s two wins are better than Richmond\u2019s other two wins). As we\u2019ve mentioned before this isn\u2019t a year where you\u2019re desperate to have Pick 1 over Pick 2, and Adem Yze definitely needed the win, so the Tigers were totally reasonable to consider the short-term over the long-term with Sunday\u2019s win. Not that they had a huge say in it, because they gave West Coast enough chances&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Welcome back to the Power Rankings. The virtually-certain minor premiers look unstoppable. And running through their challengers, there\u2019s&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":842563,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[560],"tags":[638,64,63,55,639,85],"class_list":["post-842562","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-afl","tag-afl","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-australian-football-league","tag-australianfootballleague","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/842562","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=842562"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/842562\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/842563"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=842562"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=842562"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=842562"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}