{"id":848022,"date":"2026-08-08T13:44:35","date_gmt":"2026-08-08T13:44:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/848022\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T13:44:35","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T13:44:35","slug":"the-one-wish-willow-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/848022\/","title":{"rendered":"The One Wish Willow Economy"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-71429\" src=\"https:\/\/awealthofcommonsense.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-06-134424.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"381\" height=\"392\"  \/><\/p>\n<p>Obsession is one of the best movies of the decade.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s also one of the best stories in recent film history.<\/p>\n<p>Writer-director Curry Barker is 26 years old. The budget for the movie was just $750k. It\u2019s made almost $500 million in worldwide box office.<\/p>\n<p>I love that fact that a low-budget indie flick can feel so high quality. I love a great movie with a bunch of relatively unknown actors who feel like they\u2019re going to be stars.<\/p>\n<p>And I love the premise of the movie.<\/p>\n<p>The plot is about a guy who makes a wish that a girl who is out of his league will love him.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-71430\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-07-31-232047.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"993\" height=\"560\"  \/><\/p>\n<p>That wish comes with some scary unintended consequences.<\/p>\n<p>I won\u2019t spoil it but this is the kind of movie you need to watch at least twice to fully appreciate it.<\/p>\n<p>My finance brain immediately had me wondering about the unintended consequences if people got to make their economic wishes come true.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s give it a shot:<\/p>\n<p>I wish for 3% mortgage rates again.<\/p>\n<p>Done. Now here\u2019s a recession that causes unemployment to spike, income growth to slow and a stock market crash. Good luck borrowing money.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s like waking up one day with duct tape covering your door.<\/p>\n<p>I wish prices would go back to 2019 levels.<\/p>\n<p>Done. The economy will now go through a period where prices fall but consumers delay spending, revenues drop, profits take a hit and GDP declines, leading to an economy with severe deflation.<\/p>\n<p>For a highly indebted country, deflation actually\u00a0increases the debt burden.<\/p>\n<p>That deflation is also accompanied by a 30% haircut in your wages.<\/p>\n<p>Don\u2019t even think about asking for a raise or going to boy\u2019s night out.<\/p>\n<p>I wish housing prices would fall to become more affordable.<\/p>\n<p>Done. Here\u2019s a massive financial crisis where banks are failing, employees get laid off and lending standards make it nearly impossible to borrow money.<\/p>\n<p>Household wealth drops precipitously, especially for the middle class, who have the bulk of their net worth tied up in their primary residence.<\/p>\n<p>Housing prices are lower but few people who need financial relief can now afford to buy one even at depressed levels.<\/p>\n<p>I wish for income inequality to improve.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>This one already happened.<\/p>\n<p>Income inequality improved substantially coming out of the pandemic:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-71463\" src=\"https:\/\/awealthofcommonsense.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-06-172837.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1071\" height=\"717\"  \/><\/p>\n<p>The lowest wage cohorts experienced the fastest wage growth.<\/p>\n<p>The Covid stimulus led to a tight labor market. That increased wages substantially, especially at the lower end of the wage spectrum.<\/p>\n<p>And people hated it.<\/p>\n<p>Why?<\/p>\n<p>Because it also led to a 9% inflation rate and a cumulative 30% increase in consumer prices.<\/p>\n<p>Economic sentiment in the 2020s looks like this because of the inflation:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-71451\" src=\"https:\/\/awealthofcommonsense.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-06-165704.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"397\" height=\"446\"  \/><\/p>\n<p>I wish the stock market would fall 50% so I could buy stocks on sale.<\/p>\n<p>Take your pick of the economic environment that has caused stocks to fall this far in the past 100 years:<\/p>\n<p>The Great Depression<br \/>\nThe 1937 depression echo-crash<br \/>\nThe 1973-74 great inflation<br \/>\nThe 2000-2002 bursting of the dot-com bubble<br \/>\nThe 2007-2009 Great Financial Crisis<\/p>\n<p>Don\u2019t get me wrong. Young people should be especially open to stock market declines.<\/p>\n<p>You just need to understand that the biggest stock market crashes typically happen because the economy is in a very bad place.<\/p>\n<p>One minute you\u2019re in love, the next minute you\u2019re eating dead cat sandwiches.<\/p>\n<p>Obviously, there are other ways to\u00a0get better economic outcomes without a pandemic, recession or financial crisis.<\/p>\n<p>But just know that economic outcomes do not play out in a vacuum. There are trade-offs to consider.<\/p>\n<p>The economy in the 2010s was one of slow GDP growth, low inflation, stagnating wages, a high-ish unemployment rate and 0% rates.<\/p>\n<p>The economy in the 2020s has seen higher GDP\u00a0 growth, higher inflation, higher wage growth, low unemployment and higher rates.<\/p>\n<p>If you want higher wage growth you have to deal with higher inflation.<\/p>\n<p>If you want higher economic growth or a better labor market you have to deal with higher borrowing rates.<\/p>\n<p>If you want a girl who shows total devotion you might have to sit through her dark Hansel and Gretel poem in front of all your friends at a party.<\/p>\n<p>Careful what you wish for.<\/p>\n<p>Michael and I talked about Obsession, unintended economic consequences and and much more on this week\u2019s Animal Spirits video:<\/p>\n<p>\ufeff<\/p>\n<p>Subscribe to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@TheCompoundNews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">The Compound<\/a> so you never miss an episode.<\/p>\n<p>Further Reading:<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/awealthofcommonsense.com\/2026\/03\/the-worst-asset-class-for-the-next-5-years\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">The Worst Asset Class For the Next 5 Years<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Now here\u2019s what I\u2019ve been reading lately:<\/p>\n<p>Books:<\/p>\n<p>Podcast book tour:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Obsession is one of the best movies of the decade. It\u2019s also one of the best stories in&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":848023,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[64,63,99,164],"class_list":["post-848022","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-business","tag-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/848022","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=848022"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/848022\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/848023"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=848022"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=848022"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=848022"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}