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LAST SEASON<\/p>\n
After winning 15 playoff games in 2024 and 14 in 2025, the Edmonton Oilers<\/a> entered the 2025-26 season with clear expectations: Stanley Cup or bust. And if that bar wasn\u2019t already high enough, Oilers superstar Connor McDavid turned the heat up even more just days before the season opener by signing a two-year contract extension that maintained his previous $12.5 million cap hit. For the Oilers, the deal was simultaneously a bargain and a warning. McDavid is the NHL\u2019s most talented player and a perennial Art Ross Trophy contender; in a league where the salary cap is increasing at an astronomical rate, he\u2019s hilariously underpaid. By the same token, McDavid is now alarmingly close to becoming an unrestricted free agent, and while he could\u2019ve given the Oilers a much longer commitment, he chose not to.<\/p>\n The Oilers are the only NHL team McDavid has ever known, and while they came oh-so-close to winning it all in back-to-back years, they also appeared to take a small step back in 2025. Above all else, McDavid wants to win, and his extension didn\u2019t exactly provide a resounding vote of confidence in the Oilers\u2019 prospects. Neither did the team\u2019s performance during the 2025-26 season, which McDavid described as \u201caverage\u201d after the Oilers fell to the Anaheim Ducks<\/a> in six games in the first round of the playoffs. Leon Draisaitl put it more bluntly<\/a> in his end-of-year media availability: \u201cI am concerned because we\u2019re not trending in the right direction. We\u2019ve taken big steps backwards.\u201d<\/p>\n McDavid put up 138 points in 2025-26, but for the first time since the COVID-shortened 2020-21 campaign, none of his teammates joined him in reaching the century mark. Draisaitl fell just short at 97, but that was because he missed 17 games to injury; Evan Bouchard set a new career high with 95 points while playing the full 82-game schedule. Zach Hyman also sat out much of the year with various injuries, and McDavid himself was clearly hampered by a significant foot issue during the playoffs. Goaltending remained a significant problem, with all four of the team\u2019s netminders falling short of a .900 save percentage. And while Oilers GM Stan Bowman made numerous moves during the season to try to upgrade the team\u2019s depth, the supporting cast never truly came together.<\/p>\n The Oilers obviously wouldn\u2019t have made it to back-to-back Finals without McDavid, Draisaitl, and Bouchard, but it\u2019s also worth remembering just how dominant their secondary scorers and special teams were in those runs (especially in 2024). Remember, this is a team that converted on 29.3 percent of their power plays and went 94.3 percent on the penalty kill in the same playoff run. <\/p>\n But last year? Edmonton\u2019s PK operated at a pedestrian 77.8 percent success rate during the regular season before allowing eight goals in the playoffs \u2026 on just 16 Ducks power plays. Sure, their own power play is as electric as ever, but the Oilers aren\u2019t going to win many games if they only kill half their penalties.<\/p>\n After their disappointing performance in the 2025-26 season, the Oilers fired head coach Kris Knoblauch and committed to reshaping their defense and goaltending. But is it enough for them to reclaim their title as Western Conference champions, and will it be enough to sway McDavid?<\/p>\n KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES<\/p>\n Additions<\/p>\n Frederik Andersen, G Departures<\/p>\n Darnell Nurse, D (SJ) OFFENSE<\/p>\n The Oilers haven\u2019t made a ton of changes to their offense. Considering that they ranked second in the Western Conference with 282 goals last year, they didn\u2019t really need to. Health permitting, McDavid and Draisaitl will likely both be near the very top of the league\u2019s scoring race, and Zach Hyman remains the ideal winger for No. 97. All three players could feasibly score 50 goals in any given year, and they\u2019re the biggest reasons why the Oilers\u2019 power play consistently ranks near the top of the league.<\/p>\n However, there are very reasonable questions to ask about the long-term viability of Edmonton\u2019s forward group. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is 33, and Hyman just turned 34. Any hint of a decline from either player could spell major trouble for an Oilers team that doesn\u2019t have a ton of other options to play with McDavid and Draisaitl. Of course, Draisaitl himself will turn 31 in October, although he obviously hasn\u2019t shown any signs of slowing down. McDavid will turn 30 in January, but for the Oilers, his age is less of a concern than his contract status.<\/p>\n Edmonton has a handful of promising young wingers who could potentially pick up more slack if Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins begin to slide. Vasily Podkolzin has been found money since arriving from the Vancouver Canucks<\/a> in 2024, fitting in beautifully on a line with Draisaitl and setting career highs with 19 goals and 37 points last year. He\u2019s a good-sized winger who positively influences possession and has a much-needed physical aspect to his game. The Oilers paid a fourth-round pick to get Podkolzin, and they ended up getting that very same pick back from the Canucks \u2026 for one year of Evander Kane. Talk about a steal!<\/p>\n The other burgeoning candidates to skate alongside McDavid or Draisaitl are Matt Savoie and Ike Howard, both of whom had trial runs in the top six last year to varying degrees of success. Savoie played roughly a third of his 5-on-5 minutes on McDavid\u2019s wing, and while his chance generation rates weren\u2019t great, he still managed to put up 18 goals and 37 points as a rookie. Howard featured much less prominently in the Oilers\u2019 lineup but had a highly productive run with the AHL\u2019s Bakersfield Condors as a first-year pro. Expect to see a lot of Howard with McDavid and on the No. 1 PP unit to start the 2026-27 season, especially if Savoie is still recovering from the injury he sustained<\/a> earlier in the summer.<\/p>\n DEFENSE<\/p>\n Edmonton allowed the seventh-most goals in the NHL last year, and while that may have had more to do with their patchy goaltending than anything else, it\u2019s still an indictment on a team that used to consistently rank near the top of the league in virtually every play-driving category, both offensive and defensive. Isolating for 5-on-5 play, the Oilers allowed 27.59 scoring chances per 60 minutes last year, the 12th-most in the league \u2014 more than the Seattle Kraken<\/a>, Columbus Blue Jackets<\/a>, and even the San Jose Sharks<\/a>. The Oilers\u2019 top pairing of Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm remained one of the league\u2019s best last season. But the rest of the team\u2019s defensive group was \u2026 let\u2019s say, volatile. Darnell Nurse ranked third among the Oilers\u2019 regular defenders with a 5-on-5 expected goals percentage of 50.32; everyone else was in the red.<\/p>\n One of Bowman\u2019s top priorities heading into the offseason was to reshape the Oilers\u2019 defense, and after his least productive season in nearly a decade, Nurse was a prime candidate to move. It\u2019s still kind of miraculous that Bowman managed to find a taker for the full freight of Nurse\u2019s contract, which still has four years remaining at a $9.25 million cap hit. The 31-year-old rearguard will now play a featured role with the Sharks, who needed an established veteran to log big minutes as they try to take the next step towards contention; in return for Nurse, the Oilers received a young left-handed D in Shakir Mukhamadullin, as well as collegiate defense prospect Zack Sharp.<\/p>\n The Oilers dealt Nurse to San Jose on July 1, the same day that they signed Ryan Shea to a five-year contract <\/a>in unrestricted free agency. Shea will likely be tasked with absorbing most of Nurse\u2019s responsibilities on the blue line; he\u2019s coming off a breakout year with the Pittsburgh Penguins<\/a> in which he racked up six goals and 35 points in 80 games while averaging 18:53 of ice time. He could very easily end up north of 20 minutes a night with the Oilers.<\/p>\n The biggest wild card in Edmonton is the projected second pairing of Jake Walman and Connor Murphy, both of whom are coming off less-than-ideal seasons. We\u2019ll take a closer look at Walman later, but suffice it to say that his $7 million cap hit through 2033 doesn\u2019t look great; Murphy, meanwhile, just inked a new five-year deal with the Oilers and is more established as a shutdown defender but is coming off a year in which he posted weaker shot suppression numbers than usual. The Oilers are banking a lot on the Walman-Murphy pairing finding success over their first full season together.<\/p>\n GOALTENDING<\/p>\n The Oilers have been aggressive in their attempts to address their goaltending situation over the past 12 months. It\u2019s easy to understand why; if they\u2019d just gotten a few extra saves over the past few years, we\u2019d probably be living in a world where McDavid and Co. had already won the Stanley Cup at least once.<\/p>\n Stuart Skinner\u2019s tenure in Edmonton came to a rather unceremonious end midway through the 2025-26 season when the Oilers packaged him with Brett Kulak and a second-round pick to acquire Tristan Jarry from the Penguins. The move was a bit of a head-scratcher<\/a> at the time, given that Jarry had cleared waivers earlier in the same calendar year, and it quickly devolved into a disaster down the stretch. Jarry posted a miserable .858 save percentage across his first 19 appearances with the Oilers and was relegated to the bench in favour of backup Connor Ingram (who remains a UFA this summer) for five of Edmonton\u2019s six playoff games.<\/p>\n Jarry is under contract through the end of the 2027-28 season at a $5.375 million cap hit, so the Oilers might as well give him another chance. His main competition is UFA acquisition Freddy Andersen, who won the Stanley Cup with the Carolina Hurricanes<\/a> back in June before signing a one-year deal with the Oilers on July 1. <\/p>\n As you may recall, Andersen \u2014 who missed vast swaths of time to injuries throughout his tenure in Carolina \u2014 sat out Games 4 through 6 of the Stanley Cup Final while dealing with a knee issue. Now, the Oilers have confirmed <\/a>that Andersen will miss the entirety of the team\u2019s training camp as he recovers from an injury he sustained during an offseason training session. Not great.<\/p>\n Depending on how long Andersen remains sidelined, the Oilers could start the 2026-27 season with a tandem of Jarry and Devon Levi, the latter of whom was once a highly touted prospect but, if the numbers are any indication, might be a little too small to make it in the NHL. Ultimately, considering how much energy the Oilers have expended trying to fix their goaltending, there are still a ton of question marks in their crease \u2014 but there\u2019s a much bigger one behind the bench.<\/p>\n COACHING<\/p>\n Oh, boy.<\/p>\n When the news first leaked that the Oilers were seriously thinking about replacing Kris Knoblauch with Mike Babcock, the hockey world collectively reacted as though a nuclear bomb had exploded. By the time the team officially named Babcock their new head coach on June 23, the uproar hadn\u2019t exactly dissipated. Babcock spent much of his introductory press conference in Edmonton on the defensive, offering his own explanations (but no apologies) for how things ended with the Blue Jackets and the Toronto Maple Leafs<\/a>.<\/p>\n Babcock has been the subject of allegations of improper coaching techniques and player management for a long time \u2014 Mike Commodore has certainly gone to great lengths to share his feelings on the matter over the years \u2014 but it all truly came to a head after he joined the Blue Jackets in 2023. He lasted just over two-and-a-half months with the team, coaching a grand total of zero games, before resigning at the start of training camp in response to a wave of outrage (and multiple investigations) regarding his conduct towards certain players. At the time, it seemed like the end of Babcock\u2019s run as an NHL head coach.<\/p>\n It\u2019s funny how things can change. After a so-so season and an early playoff exit, the Oilers decided they needed more of a disciplinarian behind the bench, and Babcock was the top name on their list. By most accounts<\/a>, McDavid, Draisaitl, and the rest of the team\u2019s leadership group are on board with the Babcock hiring, and he\u2019s made it more than two months in Edmonton without any alarms going off. Still, two things can be true at once: Babcock has won a lot of big games, including Game 6 of the 2008 Stanley Cup Final and two Olympic gold-medal games; he also hasn\u2019t led his team to a playoff series win since 2013, going one-and-done the last five times. Now, he\u2019ll be the sixth head coach of the McDavid Era, with D.J. Smith and Paul McFarland serving as his assistants.<\/p>\n ROOKIES<\/p>\n Ike Howard is no longer Calder Trophy-eligible by the merest technicality, which means the only true \u201crookie\u201d expected to make the Oilers\u2019 lineup is projected fourth-line center Josh Samanski, who acquitted himself genuinely well during his cup of coffee with the club last season.<\/p>\n Samanski is a good-sized forward from Germany who arguably outplayed the likes of Jason Dickinson and Adam Henrique down the stretch in 2025-26 before notching a goal and an assist in five playoff games. In his 24 appearances with the Oilers during the regular season, Samanski posted strong underlying numbers across the board and managed to pot a couple goals despite bouncing back and forth between center and the wing. Samanski will likely break camp with the Oilers and could be in line for a bigger opportunity, especially with Mattias Janmark still on the mend from shoulder surgery and Trent Frederic coming off an underwhelming first full year in Edmonton.<\/p>\n BURNING QUESTIONS<\/p>\n 1. Can Howard hang with McDavid? The 2025 Hobey Baker Award winner managed just two goals and five points in his 29 games with the Oilers last year, but his 24 goals and 50 points in 47 AHL games painted a much clearer picture of what he\u2019s capable of as a pro. Howard will almost certainly be given the first crack at playing with McDavid this year. If he hits, he could become a Mike Cammalleri type; if not, well \u2026 think Ty Rattie. We\u2019ll see.<\/p>\n 2. Who will drive the bottom six? Jason Dickinson, the Oilers\u2019 projected third-line center, scored just 17 points last year. So did Kasperi Kapanen, who missed exactly half the season due to injury. Frederic, currently slotted in as the team\u2019s No. 4 right wing, managed a total of seven points in 74 games in the first season of his eight-year deal. The Oilers need someone, anyone, to produce in a bottom-six role; as it stands, Nugent-Hopkins is the only player listed on their bottom two lines who surpassed 20 points last year, and he may be in the top six if Savoie isn\u2019t ready to start the year.<\/p>\n 3. Can Jake Walman rebound? After looking rock-solid during the Oilers\u2019 run to the 2025 Stanley Cup Final, Walman was anything but in his 53 games with the club in 2025-26, posting a -17 rating (only Andrew Mangiapane\u2019s was worse) and scoring just 20 points. Walman looked a fair bit better in the playoffs, collecting four assists in six games as one of a select few Oilers to post an expected goals share north of 50 percent at 5-on-5. But for $7 million a year through 2033, the Oilers need Walman to be a high-end No. 3 defender behind Bouchard and Ekholm. Last year, they just couldn\u2019t rely on him to be that player.<\/p>\n PREDICTION<\/p>\n The Oilers are out of excuses. Last year\u2019s 93-point showing just wasn\u2019t good enough, and they\u2019ll need to take full advantage of the greater rest opportunities presented by a longer offseason. McDavid and Draisaitl are still the very best in the game, but come the midway mark of the 2026-27 season, they\u2019ll both be in their 30s. Sidney Crosby was 29 when he won his third Stanley Cup.<\/p>\n There\u2019s a lot to like about a team with this much firepower, but the Oilers are no longer the undeniable two-way force they once were. It\u2019ll be up to Babcock and Co. to figure out how to get them back to that point. A lot hinges on what the new coaching staff can do, and how the players will respond. If everything coalesces, the Oilers might actually stand a chance of winning their first division championship since 1987. If not \u2026 well, Bowman could be in for a much tougher time at the negotiating table with McDavid. <\/p>\n We\u2019ll say the Oilers end up finishing in a divisional playoff spot. They\u2019ll win their first-round matchup \u2014 potentially a rematch with the Ducks \u2014 before bowing out in the Western Conference semifinals.<\/p>\n _____<\/p>\n PRESENTED BY THE DAILY FACEOFF NEWSLETTER<\/p>\n
Devon Levi, G
Ryan Shea, D
Shakir Mukhamadullin, D
Mathieu Joseph, LW<\/p>\n
Jack Roslovic, C (Tor)
Connor Ingram, G (UFA)
Calvin Pickard, G (Minn)
Adam Henrique, C (UFA)
Curtis Lazar, C (UFA)<\/p>\n
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