{"id":880498,"date":"2026-09-05T04:18:22","date_gmt":"2026-09-05T04:18:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/880498\/"},"modified":"2026-09-05T04:18:22","modified_gmt":"2026-09-05T04:18:22","slug":"elon-musk-predicts-humanoid-robots-will-hit-one-billion-in-10-years-and-outproduce-all-humans","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/880498\/","title":{"rendered":"Elon Musk predicts humanoid robots will hit one billion in 10 years and outproduce \u2018all humans\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

Elon Musk has predicted there will be at least one billion humanoid robots within the next decade that will be more productive than \u201call humans combined\u201d.<\/p>\n

The world\u2019s richest person predicts the productivity of a single humanoid robot will be at least five times that of an ordinary human. Robots are then predicted to start manufacturing other robots, creating a \u201crecursive effect\u201d. <\/p>\n

\u201cSo it starts off very slowly but then grows at an explosive rate,\u201d the SpaceX and Tesla CEO told the 2026 G20 summit in North Carolina via video link.<\/p>\n

\u201c10 years from now, I would say there are well over a billion humanoid robots. The productivity per robot will be probably five times that of a human.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Bali<\/p>\n

Mr Musk said he believes this to be a \u201cconservative estimate\u201d and said he would be \u201cwilling to put serious money betting on that there will be at least a billion robots in 10 years, and those robots will be at least five times the output of a human\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cMeaning that the billion humanoid robots will be more productive than all humans combined,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Mr Musk said he believes the usefulness of robots will depend on three factors: how good the AI software is, how good the AI chip in the robot is, and how good the electromechanical dexterity of the robot is, particularly the hands.<\/p>\n

\u201cAll three of those things are improving exponentially. The usefulness of the robot is those three things multiplied by each other,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Global humanoid robot shipments totalled roughly 19,100 units in the first half of 2026, more than triple the 5,100 units shipped in the same period last year, according to data from Smart Analytics Global.<\/p>\n

The research firm expects shipments will rise to around 60,000 units this year and hit half a million by 2030.<\/p>\n

Chinese humanoid robot makers made up more than 97 per cent of global shipments, with Shanghai-based Agibot claiming the top market share with 8,400 of global shipments, followed by Hangzhou-based Unitree Robotics at 5,900 units.<\/p>\n

Tesla is launching its own humanoid robot, Optimus, which has been pitched as an all-purpose humanoid robot designed to perform unsafe, repetitive or boring tasks. <\/p>\n

It\u2019s aiming to produce one million of the robots per year, with Mr Musk previously saying Optimus could eventually account for about 80 per cent of Tesla\u2019s value. <\/p>\n

It comes after Chinese humanoid robots smashed records set by humans at the World Humanoid Robot Games in Beijing this month.<\/p>\n

The five-day games saw two robots run faster than Usain Bolt\u2019s 9.58-second world record in the 100 metres sprint. <\/p>\n

Tiangong Ultra, developed by the Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Centre, ran 100 metres in 9.39 seconds, while Honor\u2019s Lightning finished in 9.47 seconds.<\/p>\n

The results marked an improvement from last year\u2019s inaugural games, where Tiangong Ultra won the 100m race in 21.50 seconds.<\/p>\n

\"Robot<\/p>\n

AI to boost global economy by up to $30 trillion, Musk says<\/p>\n

Speaking at the G20 summit, Mr Musk said humanoid robotics would mark an \u201cincredible change\u201d. <\/p>\n

\u201cI think AI will probably increase the global economy by 20 to 30 per cent, that\u2019s my rough estimate. Meaning in the order of $20 to $30 trillion per year,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cAI will be able to do anything digital, anything that does not require shaping of atoms by hand, probably by the end of next year.\u201d<\/p>\n

Mr Musk said AI was already incredibly good at software and it was getting to the point where AI would be \u201cStockfish-level good\u201d, a chess program that can beat the world\u2019s best chess players easily.<\/p>\n

\u201cAt this point, you could run Stockfish on your phone and beat Magnus Carlsen at chess,\u201d he said<\/p>\n

\u201cAt some point next year is my prediction, AI software will be so good that it will be Stockfish-level good, meaning that it is impossible for a human to compete in writing software with AI. AI will just crush all humans at software.\u201d<\/p>\n

Mr Musk expects AI will be \u201cextremely good, possibly Stockfish-level\u201d at anything digital in 12 to 18 months.<\/p>\n

Read related topics:Elon Musk<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Elon Musk has predicted there will be at least one billion humanoid robots within the next decade that…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":880499,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[438918,449859,449789,449808,449807,449850,449835,419136,449841,449821,449794,365771,449862,449829,449844,449833,10968,449801,449783,35242,26455,210419,449825,449855,449846,449858,449849,449854,449838,449843,414469,449814,449797,435421,256,306460,449818,406933,449860,449788,449819,385460,449827,449832,449793,254,255,449836,449831,449803,65779,64,63,3686,449799,32092,103125,407638,2458,379391,3120,449800,449853,5305,380463,449816,8852,449823,35816,449834,449796,54429,33904,449845,449786,45755,103126,449847,428372,330032,13322,449791,449839,155207,31659,449842,449824,112794,449787,44377,449812,3146,17895,449828,449864,449792,42830,182271,449856,8247,393979,449863,449802,105,3122,449815,449826,449820,408518,449784,449851,449795,449822,449840,215379,377510,449861,449805,382511,402635,406840,390234,449785,407258,449809,449798,449790,449817,449804,54798,449806,449837,378564,364611,449852,380902,449810,449857,449811,17160,449848,186955,449830,93466,223610,449813,1547,378052],"class_list":["post-880498","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-artificial-intelligence","tag-s-100m-record","tag-s-9-58-second-world-record","tag-s-best-chess-players","tag-s-huge-prediction","tag-s-inaugural-games","tag-s-lightning","tag-s-richest-person","tag-s-value","tag-stockfish-level-good","tag-20-to-30-trillion","tag-000-units","tag-10-years","tag-100-metres","tag-100-units","tag-12-to-18-months","tag-20-to-30","tag-10968","tag-2030-chinese-humanoid-robot-makers","tag-21-50-seconds-a-chinese-robot","tag-35242","tag-26455","tag-210419","tag-9-39-seconds","tag-9-47-seconds-the-results","tag-900-units-tesla","tag-a-conservative-estimate","tag-a-recursive-effect","tag-a-billion-humanoid-robots","tag-a-billion-robots","tag-a-chess-program","tag-a-human","tag-a-single-humanoid-robot","tag-a-staggering-amount","tag-about-80","tag-ai","tag-ai-software","tag-all-humans","tag-all-three","tag-an-incredible-change","tag-an-all-purpose-humanoid-robot","tag-an-explosive-rate","tag-an-improvement","tag-an-ordinary-human","tag-anything-digital","tag-around-60","tag-artificial-intelligence","tag-artificialintelligence","tag-at-least-five-times-that","tag-at-least-five-times-the-output","tag-at-least-one-billion-humanoid-robots","tag-atoms","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-beijing","tag-canggu","tag-cent","tag-chess","tag-chinese-humanoid-robots","tag-data","tag-each-other","tag-elon-musk","tag-finns-beach-club","tag-five-times-that","tag-global-economy","tag-global-shipments","tag-half-a-million","tag-hand","tag-hangzhou-based-unitree-robotics","tag-honor","tag-humanoid-robot-shipments","tag-humanoid-robotics","tag-humanoid-robots","tag-humans","tag-its-new-tiny-humanoid-robot-dance-squad-mr-musk","tag-its-own-humanoid-robot","tag-last-year","tag-magnus-carlsen","tag-more-than-97","tag-more-than-triple","tag-mr-musk","tag-musk","tag-my-prediction","tag-my-rough-estimate","tag-next-year","tag-north-carolina","tag-one-billion","tag-one-million","tag-optimus","tag-other-robots","tag-records","tag-repetitive-or-boring-tasks","tag-robot","tag-robots","tag-roughly-19","tag-serious-money","tag-shanghai-based-agibot","tag-shaping","tag-shipments","tag-smart-analytics-global-the-research-firm","tag-software","tag-some-point","tag-spacex-and-tesla-ceo-elon-musk","tag-stockfish","tag-technology","tag-tesla","tag-the-100-metres-sprint","tag-the-100m-race","tag-the-2026-g20-summit","tag-the-5","tag-the-ai-chip","tag-the-ai-software","tag-the-beijing-humanoid-robot-innovation-centre","tag-the-billion-humanoid-robots","tag-the-electromechanical-dexterity","tag-the-end","tag-the-first-half","tag-the-g20-summit","tag-the-global-economy","tag-the-hands","tag-the-next-decade","tag-the-order","tag-the-point","tag-the-productivity","tag-the-robot","tag-the-robots","tag-the-same-period","tag-the-spacex-and-tesla-ceo","tag-the-top-market-share","tag-the-usefulness","tag-the-world","tag-the-world-humanoid-robot-games","tag-this-month-the-five-day-games","tag-this-point","tag-this-year","tag-those-robots","tag-those-things","tag-those-three-things","tag-three-factors","tag-tiangong-ultra","tag-tourists","tag-two-robots","tag-unsafe","tag-up-to-30-trillion","tag-usain-bolt","tag-video-link","tag-world-robot-gamesai","tag-year","tag-your-phone"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/880498","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=880498"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/880498\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/880499"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=880498"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=880498"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=880498"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}