<\/p>\n
MORE: Home prices fall everywhere except one city<\/a><\/p>\n The appearance came as new data revealed<\/a> the Harbour City\u2019s property market is plunging at a pace not seen in four decades and Australia\u2019s biggest bank dramatically downgraded its property outlook, warning Sydney is facing one of its \u201cquickest and deepest\u201d housing crashes in at least 20 years.<\/p>\n Commonwealth Bank said national home prices are expected to plunge 9 per cent peak-to-trough, with Sydney and Melbourne copping the brunt of the downturn at 13 per cent and 12 per cent drops respectively.<\/p>\n However, Mr Phillips believes the worst of the price slide in Sydney\u2019s eastern suburbs is already over, declaring that the high-end market officially \u201cbottomed out\u201d in mid-July.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re not seeing the market slide anymore in all price ranges, because I think what\u2019s happened is the media\u2019s finally beaten up the market enough that the vendors got in alignment with the buyer pool,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n MORE: <\/a>If you live near this, your home is 40pc less<\/a><\/p>\n \u201cThe buyers have gone, \u2018OK, now the vendors are in alignment, it\u2019s not falling anymore. Let me get on, let\u2019s buy.\u2019 So we are now seeing not price growth, but definitely stability. <\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s a lot more consistent than what it was in, say, May and June, which was probably one of the hardest markets I\u2019ve ever seen.\u201d<\/p>\n Bouris appeared taken aback, saying it was \u201camazing\u201d given what analysts had told him about the wider property market in Australia continuing to fall.<\/p>\n Mr Phillips, whose average sale price sits between $5 million and $7 million, said that while headline figures across Sydney suggest a 5 to 10 per cent drop, the reality on the ground at the upper end of the market has been far steeper.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019ve definitely seen I\u2019d say close to a 15 per cent drop in some prices,\u201d Mr Phillips said, adding that an estimated 80 per cent of home buyers who bought between 2021 and 2026 are currently sitting on paper losses or taking offers lower than what they originally paid.<\/p>\n \u2018Never seen this in 24 years\u2019<\/p>\n Mr Phillips also said there was an unprecedented shift in investor sentiment, driven by buyer frustration with government tax changes and cost-of-living headwinds.<\/p>\n \u201cSomething that I\u2019ve never seen before in my 24 years of selling real estate in the last three months is more people calling saying we\u2019re not buying anymore in Australia. We want to buy outside Australia,\u201d Mr Phillips said.<\/p>\n He said affluent buyers are increasingly looking to relocate or move capital into tax-friendly offshore markets such as Singapore, Europe, New Zealand and Dubai. <\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s actually more people going out than coming in as buyers in the last few months,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cPeople are fed up with the government, I think. Unless a new government comes in and unwinds what\u2019s happening with the budget, it could be pretty disastrous for the investment market.\u201d<\/p>\n Bouris said he had heard similar stories, saying even those whose properties were grandfathered under the current rules are going to see their returns impacted.<\/p>\n \u201cIt just means the tax rate you pay on the gain you make will be less, but at the same time, you\u2019re going to make less gain because everybody\u2019s affected,\u201d Mr Phillips agreed.<\/p>\n He suggested that holding property purely for capital gains may no longer be attractive. <\/p>\n \u201cIf you\u2019re selling a house and \u2026 you own it outright for $10 million, in the next five years, I actually think you\u2019re better off probably putting that money in the bank and getting a guaranteed 6 or 7 per cent,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u2018Probably one of the worst suburbs to invest in\u2019<\/p>\n With decades of experience in the eastern suburbs, Mr Phillips warned that now was a bad time for buyers in certain areas.<\/p>\n He warned those eyeing high-density unit developments or off-the-plan builds in newly rezoned pockets like Bondi Junction and Rose Bay, saying there was a risk of oversupply and exorbitant holding costs.<\/p>\n \u201cBondi Junction is probably one of the worst suburbs to invest in because there\u2019s too many new towers being built,\u201d Mr Phillips cautioned, pointing out that ongoing strata, concierge, and amenity fees in luxury towers can cost owners $20,000 to $30,000 a year just to run.<\/p>\n He dismissed developers\u2019 attempts to justify high asking prices based on soaring land and construction expenses \u2014 a situation he called the \u201creplacement cost fallacy\u201d.<\/p>\n \u201cWe deal with these developers every day saying, \u2018Oh, but this is what I want. I want $8 million because the land\u2019s five, cost me three to build.\u2019 That\u2019s irrelevant. The one down the road just went for seven,\u201d he said. \u201cIn a hot market, you can (back up pricing). But in this market, no.\u201d<\/p>\n Instead, Mr Phillips recommended sticking to established, character assets in areas immune to sweeping rezoning, such as Paddington terraces or art deco apartments. <\/p>\n \u201cYou\u2019re out of the zoning areas,\u201d he said. \u201cThey always rent well. They\u2019re not seasonal.\u201d<\/p>\n A new demographic of buyers moves in<\/p>\n The podcast also shed light on shifting buyer demographics in the eastern suburbs.<\/p>\n Mr Phillips said \u201ccrypto guys\u201d dominated prestige purchases five years ago, and that the latest wave of home buyers is coming from artificial intelligence and tech entrepreneurs \u2014 including a recent $13 million Bronte house sale.<\/p>\n At the same time, wealthy homeowners are changing how they live. Rather than holding onto sprawling $20 million \u201ctrophy homes\u201d that cost $200,000 annually just to maintain, empty-nesters in their late 50s are downsizing much earlier.<\/p>\n \u201cThey\u2019re selling for 10, buying for five \u2026 putting the rest in the bank, paying for kids\u2019 universities,\u201d Mr Phillips said. \u201cPeople are going, \u2018I don\u2019t need to prove anything \u2026 just lock up and leave.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n Looking forward, Mr Phillips expects the market to remain relatively flat, forecasting price movements of \u201cup or down a couple of per cent for the next few years\u201d rather than rapid capital growth.<\/p>\n He also highlighted a potential shadow inventory of unsold homes that could test market stability if relisted simultaneously. In just eight eastern suburbs serviced by his team between June and mid-July, 120 homes were pulled off the market without selling.<\/p>\n For prospective sellers, Mr Phillips offered a simple rule of thumb: \u201cIf you\u2019re selling to get the best price, definitely don\u2019t sell. But if you\u2019ve got a reason to sell \u2014 like upgrading or moving out \u2014 now\u2019s the time to do it.\u201d<\/p>\n