Reserve Bank deputy governor Andrew Hauser is adept at saying many compelling things, but without revealing much.<\/p>\n
That was how I felt when I listened back to my January interview with him, and it was again my takeaway from Sarah Ferguson’s questioning of Hauser on 7.30 last night.<\/p>\n
There was a lot of forceful commentary from Hauser about how inflation was Australia’s biggest economic challenge and the RBA’s number one focus but, as is usually the case from Australian central bankers, no firm guidance on what that meant for interest rates.<\/p>\n
Understandably, Hauser rejected Ferguson’s assertion that an interest rate hike was “inevitable”, but he also appeared subtly keen to buy the RBA some extra time to assess whether another rate hike was needed.<\/p>\n
Hauser said the bank had, to this point, exercised some patience in tackling inflation to try to hold on to as much of the post-COVID employment gains as possible.<\/p>\n
“If at some point it becomes clear that that is not a feasible path, we’ll take another path,” he said.<\/p>\n
“What would that be?” asked Ferguson.<\/p>\n
“Well we would raise interest rates further than otherwise we would need to do so.<\/p>\n
“We’re not at that point yet, but some of these upside risks to inflation are certainly on our mind and I come back from the US a bit more worried about them than I did when I went.”<\/p>\n
Loading…<\/p>\n
The response allows the RBA board room to make a decision either way when it next meets at the end of this month.<\/p>\n
It could hold rates, saying it’s still not at the point at which domestic inflation pressures and expectations look like they’re getting out of hand.<\/p>\n
It could also raise them, arguing it had enough evidence to show that another hike was needed to get inflation back to target within a reasonable timeframe.<\/p>\n
As Hauser pointed out, his view is not determinative, as each of the nine board members gets an equal vote.<\/p>\n
We know from earlier this year, when there was a 5-4 decision in favour of one of the three rate hikes, that the board members don’t always agree.<\/p>\n
Markets are currently betting on about a 70% chance the majority of the board will lose patience on September 29 and hike rates.<\/p>\n
I think the true odds are much closer to 50\/50, a view shared by many of the major bank economics teams, although that would leave a November rate hike looking extremely likely.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Reserve Bank deputy governor Andrew Hauser is adept at saying many compelling things, but without revealing much. That…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":885079,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[2001,64,29217,63,99,2003,2005,5284,171,2007,19136,2008,5463,29218,1491],"class_list":["post-885078","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-asx","tag-au","tag-aud","tag-australia","tag-business","tag-dollar","tag-dow-jones","tag-gold","tag-markets","tag-nasdaq","tag-oil","tag-sp","tag-sp-500","tag-usd","tag-wall-street"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/885078","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=885078"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/885078\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/885079"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=885078"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=885078"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=885078"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}