{"id":888666,"date":"2026-09-11T22:48:26","date_gmt":"2026-09-11T22:48:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/888666\/"},"modified":"2026-09-11T22:48:26","modified_gmt":"2026-09-11T22:48:26","slug":"friday-mlb-home-run-picks-braves-austin-riley-among-best-bets-for-sept-11","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/888666\/","title":{"rendered":"Friday MLB home run picks: Braves’ Austin Riley among best bets for Sept. 11"},"content":{"rendered":"

The 2026 MLB regular season is winding down, and this is one of just three Fridays remaining before the action moves to the playoffs. I’m still dumbfounded that\u00a0Blue Jays<\/a> superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr<\/a>. has yet to homer at home this season in 241 at-bats. And outside of the playoffs, he hasn’t homered in Toronto since last Aug. 17. Guerrero isn’t a 40-homer hitter but is usually good for 25-30.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Sadly, I just can’t recommend playing him tonight at +640 with the Orioles<\/a> in Toronto. First off, Guerrero has a single homer this month in 35 at-bats. And secondly, he has only one career dinger in 24 career at-bats against Baltimore starter Kyle Bradish<\/a>. This is a big series, though, as it could have major ramifications in the AL Wild Card race. Regarding MLB prop betting<\/a>\u00a0tonight, sadly none of the top hitter-friendly parks (Colorado, Sacramento, Cincinnati) are hosting games so I’m looking elsewhere. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Bet home run props at DraftKings, where new users get $200 in bonus bets with a $5 wager:<\/a><\/p>\n

Those who want to get into\u00a0MLB betting<\/a>, particularly home run prop betting, need to take a look at what I’m playing for Friday’s games. Over the past four MLB<\/a> seasons, I’m up $1,681 on MLB picks. You can find more of my picks\u00a0at SportsLine<\/a>, and in the\u00a0member-exclusive SportsLine Discord server<\/a>, a community of sports betting<\/a> enthusiasts and SportsLine experts.<\/p>\n

Last Friday, my home run picks were the Braves<\/a>‘ Matt Olson<\/a> at +520 and Yankees<\/a>‘ Jazz Chisholm<\/a> at the same number. At one point, Olson looked like he might win the season-long home run crown, but he’s in a major power slump and was 0-for-4 in that Friday game in Philadelphia. Chisholm, one of the top projected free-agent position players set to hit the market but now on the injured list, also had an 0-fer in San Diego. Rare I don’t get at least one guy at Over 1.5 total bases. Remember, all my HR plays mean I like Over 1.5 total bases even better at the\u00a0best sports betting apps<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Bet home runs at BetMGM Sportsbook, where new users can get up to $1,500 in bonus bets here:<\/a><\/p>\n

Top MLB home run picks for Friday, Sept. 11Austin Riley, Braves (+490, FanDuel)<\/p>\n

It’s a huge NL East series opener tonight as Philadelphia visits Atlanta for a 7:15 ET first pitch and if the Phillies<\/a> have any shot of catching the Braves for the division title, they probably have to sweep. I think they lose tonight against Chris Sale<\/a>, so forget about that. Winds are forecast to be blowing out around 7 mph at Truist Park.<\/p>\n

I’m such a sports statistics nerd sometimes that it was bugging me wondering if I had used a player from the same team as the top option in this story all season — the answer is no, I haven’t. I mention this because as noted above, I picked Atlanta’s Matt Olson last week and that was a bust — back to him in a bit. But the Braves and especially Austin Riley are forcing my hand tonight because so many of their hitters have excellent histories against Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola<\/a>, who takes the hill.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Nola (6-10, 4.76 ERA) has been the weak link of the Philly rotation much of the season, but the right-hander was always too good to struggle that much and the 33-year-old has turned it around. Nola has given up two earned runs or fewer in six straight outings to lower his season ERA from 5.55. Nola has still been homer-prone in that stretch, they have just been solo shots generally. The gopherball has clearly been his bugaboo overall as he’s allowed 32 on the year, third-most in the majors.<\/p>\n

Having spent his career with the Phillies, it’s no surprise that Nola has faced Atlanta more than any other club with 40 starts (37 dingers allowed). The Braves’ Riley had a disappointing first half of the season in slugging .329 with nine homers in 95 total games. Post-break, Riley is slugging .434 with seven homers in 50 games. And he eats Nola’s lunch with six homers, five doubles and a .676 slugging percentage.<\/p>\n

There are a few other options to consider for Atlanta tonight, including Olson (four homers, three doubles in 48 at-bats vs. Nola) and Ronald Acuna Jr<\/a>. (four homers, seven doubles in 62 at-bats).<\/p>\n

Bet on home run props and more at FanDuel Sportsbook and get up to $350 in bonus bets:<\/a><\/p>\n

Jackson Chourio, Brewers (+398, DraftKings)\u00a0<\/p>\n

Cincinnati visits Milwaukee for an NL Central series opener at 7:40 p.m. ET, and it’s an Apple TV exclusive. I wish this were at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, but American Family Field ranks among the 2026 park leaders for home-run rate too. And there are no weather worries under that retractable roof. The team tries to open it when possible and might tonight as weather looks lovely.<\/p>\n

It’s possible the Brewers clinch the NL Central title — again, not happy about it as a Cubs<\/a> fan — by Sunday but they still have to push for the NL’s top seed, and it appears it’s down to them and the Dodgers<\/a> now. While I despise the Brewers, I would like to see them get home-field advantage in a possible NLCS against anyone but the Cubs. That franchise deserves a World Series crown.<\/p>\n

And the Brew Crew aren’t going anywhere soon because they have one of the NL’s most promising young hitters in 22-year-old outfielder Jackson Chourio. He’s set career highs in homers (23) and slugging (.491) despite missing a chunk of the early season injured. He enters with dingers in back-to-back games, and it be fun to see Chourio and Cubs star outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong<\/a> try to one-up each other in the NL Central the rest of the decade.<\/p>\n

The Reds<\/a> start disappointing lefty Andrew Abbott<\/a> (6-10, 4.43 ERA), and he has surrendered 22 dingers — including four in the past two games. Abbott has been worse away, allowing 13 of those 22. Chourio only has 10 at-bats off him but is batting .300 with two homers and three walks. The righty masher actually has more homers off righties this year with 16, but that’s simply because he sees so many of them. Pretty much all of his other hitting splits are better against southpaws.<\/p>\n

Also consider catcher\/DH William Contreras<\/a> at +510 as he’s 7-for-22 off Abbott with two homers and a double.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The 2026 MLB regular season is winding down, and this is one of just three Fridays remaining before…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":888667,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[558],"tags":[16074,37578,4996,64,228183,63,1186,615,5158,180605,5257,458313,44664,10998,71770,1187,7312,5159,591,50475,300373,48834,9925,50476,102024,2704,50484,2365,306889,7304,85,5161,15146,122831],"class_list":["post-888666","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-aaron-nola","tag-andrew-abbott","tag-atlanta-braves","tag-au","tag-austin-riley","tag-australia","tag-baltimore-orioles","tag-betting","tag-chicago-cubs","tag-chris-sale","tag-cincinnati-reds","tag-home-run-picks-september-11","tag-jackson-chourio","tag-jazz-chisholm","tag-kyle-bradish","tag-los-angeles-dodgers","tag-matt-olson","tag-milwaukee-brewers","tag-mlb","tag-mlb-best-bets","tag-mlb-home-run-props","tag-mlb-odds","tag-mlb-picks","tag-mlb-player-props","tag-mlb-props","tag-new-york-yankees","tag-pete-crow-armstrong","tag-philadelphia-phillies","tag-ronald-acuna","tag-ronald-acuna-jr","tag-sports","tag-toronto-blue-jays","tag-vladimir-guerrero-jr","tag-william-contreras"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/888666","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=888666"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/888666\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/888667"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=888666"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=888666"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=888666"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}