{"id":889164,"date":"2026-09-12T08:56:16","date_gmt":"2026-09-12T08:56:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/889164\/"},"modified":"2026-09-12T08:56:16","modified_gmt":"2026-09-12T08:56:16","slug":"the-issue-why-australia-could-soon-build-its-first-refinery-since-the-1960s","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/889164\/","title":{"rendered":"The Issue: Why Australia could soon build its first refinery since the 1960s"},"content":{"rendered":"

Australia is more likely to build a new oil refinery than most people realise, according to one of the country\u2019s leading energy analysts. <\/p>\n

The assessment, from Sydney based MST Financial\u2019s Saul Kavonic, comes six weeks after the Federal and Western Australian governments announced an initial study into construction of a large-scale petrol refinery. <\/p>\n

\u201cI think there\u2019s a very real chance that Australia builds a new refinery,\u201d Kavonic says. <\/p>\n

Know the news with the 7NEWS app: Download today Arrow<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cThe risk and conflict scenarios ahead of us are different. They\u2019re elevated now. There\u2019s now strong national security reasons to have sovereign supply chains, particularly in fuels.\u201d <\/p>\n

If the refinery proceeds, it would be the first built in Australia since the 1960s and would reverse a two decade trend of refinery closures. <\/p>\n

From eight refineries, the country now has just two – Queensland\u2019s Ampol refinery and Victoria\u2019s Viva energy plant. <\/p>\n

\"SaulSaul Kavonic speaks with The Issue. Credit: 7NEWS<\/p>\n

Kavonic spoke with 7NEWS podcast The Issue just before Iranian backed Houthi militants seized a strategic port city and a key island to give them a new opportunity to threaten oil traffic through the Red Sea.<\/p>\n

With the six-month disruption of the Strait of Hormuz unresolved, conflict is now an issue in both of the region\u2019s two main channels for oil exports.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is no unscrambling of this egg,\u201d according to Kavonic. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe Strait of Hormuz will never operate the way it has in the past.\u201d <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

As well, he regards the Russia Ukraine war is problem for global oil supplies that will grow with time. <\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re seeing Ukraine make big advances in its drone strike capabilities. and that\u2019s seeing them launch a continued succession of attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, in particular refining infrastructure, going deeper and deeper into Russian territory,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s impacting Russia\u2019s exports of both fuel and ultimately crude to the point that Russia is now exporting about 10 per cent or 1 million barrels a day less.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"TheThe Strait of Hormuz will never operate the same, Kavonic says. (AP PHOTO) Credit: AAP<\/p>\n

On how this trend will develop in coming months, Kavonic expects: \u201cUkraine\u2019s campaign against Russia\u2019s energy infrastructure to scale up and increase\u201d.<\/p>\n

Australia\u2019s trend away from refining oil has left the country exposed to global events. Saul Kavonic clearly believes 2026 could be the year that reverses it.<\/p>\n

You can catch more of The Issue on Listnr<\/a> or watch full episodes on our YouTube channel.<\/a><\/p>\n

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