{"id":890675,"date":"2026-09-13T16:00:18","date_gmt":"2026-09-13T16:00:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/890675\/"},"modified":"2026-09-13T16:00:18","modified_gmt":"2026-09-13T16:00:18","slug":"human-vs-chatgpt-in-nfl-week-1-betting-picks-from-bears-and-packers-to-texans-and-lions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/890675\/","title":{"rendered":"Human vs ChatGPT in NFL Week 1 betting picks, from Bears and Packers to Texans and Lions"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

I\u2019m not sure why I keep doing this to myself, but I\u2019ve decided to spend the NFL season<\/a> going head-to-head with ChatGPT in a battle of betting picks.<\/p>\n

Each week, I\u2019ll make my five best NFL bets. Then ChatGPT will make its five best bets from the same odds board. We\u2019ll track both records throughout the season and let the results determine who actually knows what they’re talking about.<\/p>\n

2026 NFL SEASON PREDICTIONS: DIVISION WINNERS, PLAYOFF TEAMS AND SUPER BOWL PICK REVEALED<\/a><\/p>\n

I expect ChatGPT to wipe the floor with me. It has access to more information than any human could process, while I have a long and proud history of giving people reasons to bet against me<\/a>. If it can\u2019t beat me, all those people predicting AI will take over the world are clearly wrong.<\/p>\n

\"OpenAI\u2019s <\/p>\n

The Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers and Washington Commanders headline a human-vs.-ChatGPT NFL betting showdown with 10 total Week 1 picks. (Kurt “CyberGuy” Knutsson)<\/p>\n

The lines used will be the best available numbers when the picks are made. I reserve the right to complain that I was on the right side and just got unlucky, but the record will count the same either way. If ChatGPT gets one wrong, however, it wasn\u2019t unlucky. It was just wrong. No moving the goalposts for the robot.<\/p>\n

First up: my five picks. Then, ChatGPT\u2019s five picks.<\/p>\n

Dan’s CardChicago Bears -3 (-106)Jaguars\u2013Browns Under 40\u00bd (-110)Washington Commanders +5\u00bd (-106)Raiders\u2013Dolphins Under 41 (-110)Green Bay Packers ML (+110)1. Chicago Bears -3 (-106)<\/p>\n

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)<\/p>\n

Dan’s analysis:<\/p>\n

I don’t love laying three on the road in Week 1 but the Bears are a team on the rise that came within a play of reaching the NFC Championship last year. The Panthers made the playoffs, but they weren’t all that good and are due for negative regression.<\/p>\n

GPT\u2019s analysis:<\/p>\n

Solid price on the better team, and Chicago\u2019s offense should match up well with Carolina\u2019s zone-heavy defense. The concern is laying a full field goal on the road with several Bears carrying injury questions.<\/p>\n

2. Browns\u2013Jaguars Under 40\u00bd (-110)<\/p>\n

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)<\/p>\n

Dan’s analysis:<\/p>\n

Simple: where are the points going to come from? Deshaun Watson and the Browns? Well, maybe, but only if it’s Watson throwing pick-6s or turning the ball over deep in his own territory. I also like getting a few unders on the card because Week 1 unders are 52-28 (65%) over the past five seasons, including a 12-4 mark last year.<\/p>\n

GPT\u2019s analysis:<\/p>\n

Cleveland\u2019s quarterback and offensive-line uncertainty create a very low scoring floor; the danger is Jacksonville or its defense producing most of the points.<\/p>\n

3. Washington Commanders +5\u00bd (-106)<\/p>\n

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)<\/p>\n

Dan’s analysis:<\/p>\n

I’m expecting a big bounce-back from Jayden Daniels<\/a> and the Washington Commanders this season and I think it starts in Week 1. The addition of Stefon Diggs gives the team another weapon and it’s going to matter against Philadelphia. The Eagles, conversely, seem primed for a step back and I’m concerned about Jalen Hurts leaning on DeVonta Smith as his No. 1 receiver.<\/p>\n

CONTROVERSIAL PREDICTIONS AND RANKINGS OF ALL 32 NFL STARTING QBS JUST IN TIME FOR REGULAR-SEASON KICKOFF<\/a><\/p>\n

GPT\u2019s analysis:<\/p>\n

This is the pick I like least. ESPN\u2019s FPI still favors Philadelphia by 4.8 points, which creates only a thin numerical edge on Washington +5\u00bd, but its weakened offensive line against Philadelphia\u2019s defensive front could overwhelm that advantage.<\/p>\n

4. Dolphins\u2013Raiders Under 41 (-110)<\/p>\n

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)<\/p>\n

Dan’s analysis:<\/p>\n

I don’t have a lot to say here because it’s roughly the same as the Browns-Jaguars analysis. I don’t see either team scoring much, especially with Malik Willis and Kirk Cousins<\/a> guiding these two offenses.<\/p>\n

\"Kirk <\/p>\n

Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Kirk Cousins leads a new-look offense in 2026. (AP Photo\/David Becker)<\/p>\n

GPT\u2019s analysis:<\/p>\n

Strong pick\u2014Brock Bowers\u2019 absence and Miami\u2019s unsettled offense give both teams low scoring floors.<\/p>\n

5. Green Bay Packers ML (+110)<\/p>\n

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)<\/p>\n

Dan’s analysis:<\/p>\n

I almost feel like a sucker taking this bet because it feels like the most obvious play on the card. But how can I not jump on the better team as an underdog against a team starting another new quarterback this season? I think Kevin O’Connell is an excellent coach and Kyler Murray<\/a> will thrive under him, but I think it will take a few weeks to come together.<\/p>\n

GPT\u2019s analysis:<\/p>\n

Packers moneyline is my favorite pick on your card and our only overlap. ESPN\u2019s FPI favors Green Bay outright, although the absences of Micah Parsons and Josh Jacobs make it far from comfortable.<\/p>\n

GPT’s CardHouston Texans +1\u00bd (-108)Tampa Bay\u2013Cincinnati Under 50\u00bd (-108)Detroit Lions -7 (-106)Los Angeles Chargers -9 (-110)Green Bay Packers ML (+110)<\/p>\n

For full transparency, I used GPT-5.6 Sol Max mode, fed it the OddsChecker board as it appeared Saturday at 6 p.m. ET and gave it the following prompt:<\/p>\n

“I\u2019m writing an article in which I go head-to-head with you, ChatGPT, on NFL bets. Here\u2019s how it will work: Pick your five best bets for Sunday based on the odds provided. No bet can be priced worse than -120. Review every spread, total and moneyline that falls within those parameters and determine whether it belongs among your five picks. Explain exactly why you\u2019re selecting each of the five bets. Also explain exactly why you’re passing on the eligible bets you don’t select.”<\/p>\n

THESCORE BET PROMO CODE: GET A $1000 BET RESET AHEAD OF THE OPENING NFL SUNDAY OF THE 2026 SEASON<\/a><\/p>\n

GPT took nearly 20 minutes to produce these five picks:<\/p>\n

1. Houston Texans +1\u00bd (-108)<\/p>\n

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)<\/p>\n

GPT\u2019s analysis:<\/p>\n

Houston\u2019s defense is healthy and has repeatedly troubled Josh Allen. ESPN\u2019s FPI projects Buffalo by only one point\u2014still a Houston cover\u2014while most ESPN and NFL.com panelists picked Houston outright. I prefer the points over Houston\u2019s moneyline at +105 because a one-point Buffalo win cashes the spread.<\/p>\n

Projection: Houston 21, Buffalo 20<\/p>\n

Dan’s analysis:<\/p>\n

I hate this pick. Sorry, but I just can’t bet against Josh Allen and the Bills, especially in Week 1. Houston won nine straight games to end the 2025 regular season, but they mostly beat up on bad teams and, yes, they beat the Bills but it was a home game on a short week. Even their playoff win was against a mediocre Pittsburgh team.<\/p>\n

\"Josh <\/p>\n

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is still looking for his first Super Bowl appearance. (Cooper Neill\/Getty Images)<\/p>\n

2. Buccaneers\u2013Bengals Under 50\u00bd (-108)<\/p>\n

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)<\/p>\n

GPT\u2019s analysis:<\/p>\n

Fifty-one points is a demanding Week 1 threshold. Both defenses added personnel, both starting quarterbacks barely played during the preseason and Tampa Bay\u2019s receiving depth is compromised. ESPN analyst Ben Solak recommended the same under at the worse price of -112.<\/p>\n

Projection: Cincinnati 26, Tampa Bay 23<\/p>\n

Dan’s analysis:<\/p>\n

I don’t hate this look at all. As mentioned, unders are typically hot in Week 1 and this game screams OVER given the two offenses. Usually when a pick seems obvious, take the other side. In this case, that’s the under. Good pick, GPT.<\/p>\n

3. Detroit Lions -7 (-106)<\/p>\n

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)<\/p>\n

GPT\u2019s analysis:<\/p>\n

Detroit averaged 28.3 points last season and has recently been the league\u2019s most productive home offense. New Orleans brings weak pass protection, has ruled out Cameron Jordan and lists Alvin Kamara as questionable. Exactly seven pushes, so I would not play -7\u00bd.<\/p>\n

Projection: Detroit 31, New Orleans 20<\/p>\n

Dan’s analysis:<\/p>\n

Well, this is the other side of the obvious coin. I feel like the public is going to hammer Detroit. I wouldn’t be confident betting against the Lions, but I don’t love laying the seven, either. I’d avoid this one, personally.<\/p>\n

4. Los Angeles Chargers -9 (-110)<\/p>\n

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)<\/p>\n

GPT\u2019s analysis:<\/p>\n

ESPN\u2019s FPI projects a 9.6-point margin, and four of NFL.com\u2019s five projected scores cover -9. Arizona allowed 35.2 points per game over its final nine games last season and now has two secondary starters out.<\/p>\n

Projection: Chargers 30, Arizona 17<\/p>\n

Dan’s analysis:<\/p>\n

Again, I just hate laying these huge numbers in Week 1. The public loves big favorites and we just don’t know enough about these teams to lay more than a touchdown. This is an avoid for me.<\/p>\n

5. Green Bay Packers ML (+110)<\/p>\n

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)<\/p>\n

GPT\u2019s analysis:<\/p>\n

ESPN\u2019s FPI gives Green Bay a 56.8% win probability, while +110 requires only a 47.6% win probability. Jordan Love finished 2025 third in Total QBR. The moneyline also strictly improves upon Green Bay -\u00bd at +106: It pays more and pushes on a tie.<\/p>\n

Projection: Green Bay 24, Minnesota 23<\/p>\n

Dan’s analysis:<\/p>\n

Well, since I also made this bet, I’m obviously a fan. Great job, GPT. Or, more likely, terrible job since my picks are notoriously bad.<\/p>\n

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP<\/a><\/p>\n

But we\u2019ll see. Check back next week to see how we both did. Follow along throughout the season as we try to answer the most important question currently facing the United States of America: Who is better at betting the NFL, humans or robots?<\/p>\n

Dan Zaksheske is a reporter at OutKick.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"I\u2019m not sure why I keep doing this to myself, but I\u2019ve decided to spend the NFL season…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":890676,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[559],"tags":[64,63,5004,593,300794,85,41162,40293],"class_list":["post-890675","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nfl","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-chatgpt","tag-nfl","tag-outkick-sports","tag-sports","tag-sports-gambling","tag-trending-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/890675","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=890675"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/890675\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/890676"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=890675"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=890675"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=890675"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}