{"id":891061,"date":"2026-09-13T23:50:18","date_gmt":"2026-09-13T23:50:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/891061\/"},"modified":"2026-09-13T23:50:18","modified_gmt":"2026-09-13T23:50:18","slug":"the-economic-puzzle-behind-giant-companies-doomsday-warnings-about-ai","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/891061\/","title":{"rendered":"The economic puzzle behind giant companies\u2019 doomsday warnings about AI"},"content":{"rendered":"

September 14, 2026 \u2014 5:00am<\/p>\n

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Artificial intelligence researchers are not only racing to develop super-intelligent models, they\u2019re also vying to out-do each other in making ever more apocalyptic predictions.<\/p>\n

But do all these warnings about the dangers of AI from big AI firms and their staff strike you as a bit rich?<\/p>\n

\"ResearchersResearchers from Anthropic said the company was worried about the threat AI posed to humanity.AP Photo\/Patrick Sison<\/p>\n

Last week the top scientist at OpenAI<\/a> warned \u201cno one is prepared for the consequences of a continued rapid rise in machine intelligence,\u201d then days later Anthropic researchers<\/a> claimed the AI giant was worried the technology could wipe out humanity.<\/p>\n

These are merely the latest cases of AI doom-saying. We\u2019ve also been told by AI firms that there should be a global freeze<\/a> on development of the most powerful systems, or that some of their models are too dangerous to publicly release<\/a>.<\/p>\n

While some of these claims are probably just hype, many of the people making these warnings no doubt mean it.<\/p>\n

Even so, there is a glaring tension: the people who are raising the alarm are often employed by (or have recently quit) the very companies that are driving the AI craze.<\/p>\n

Related Article\"The<\/a><\/p>\n

If AI firms hold genuine concerns about the future of humanity, thanks to a technology they are rushing to develop, surely they would be the best people to do something about it by tapping on the brakes, right?<\/p>\n

But we know the firms won\u2019t voluntarily do this, because there\u2019s just too much money to be made from the AI mania. Anthropic is reportedly eyeing a stockmarket float next month, and there have been unverified reports of a $US2 trillion ($2.8 trillion) valuation. There have also been unconfirmed reports OpenAI is also keen for a $US1 trillion valuation when it ultimately floats.<\/p>\n

Economics and other social sciences have a phrase for describing this sort of puzzle \u2013 where businesses often do things even if they know it\u2019s self-destructive. It\u2019s known as a \u201ccollective action problem.\u201d It\u2019s a useful way to look at the AI mania and what might be done to contain the risks, if policymakers can act quickly and decisively enough.<\/p>\n

Collective action problems are situations where businesses would be better off working together \u2013 such as agreeing to pause the development of these high-risk AI models \u2013 but no one wants to do so out of fear of losing the competitive race. They\u2019re a downside of competition, and we\u2019ve seen them appear in all sorts of situations before.<\/p>\n

Related Article\"Data<\/a><\/p>\n

During the banking royal commission in 2018, for example, there were cases where banks continued to engage in dubious practices<\/a> because they were afraid of losing business to rivals. The solution was for the government to step in and ban the dodgy practice, to save the firms from themselves.<\/p>\n

In the AI race, greater regulation would also surely help to deal with some of the more catastrophic (if unlikely) risks AI insiders are warning of. But it\u2019s much harder to put the brakes on AI development than it is to ban banks from selling certain products.<\/p>\n

One reason is harder is that it\u2019s not only AI companies that are competing with each other, but also nations. So even if one country were willing to rein in its AI sector, it might not actually do so if rival nations don\u2019t also agree to tap the brakes.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a diabolically tricky problem. Technology billionaire Bill Gates has said<\/a> there will need to be some sort of international organisation for \u201cdealing with AI\u201d, perhaps similar to the regime for inspecting nuclear weapons, or regulating international aviation.<\/p>\n

\"BillBill Gates has drawn comparisons between regulating AI and the regime for inspecting nuclear weapons.Getty Images for Bloomberg Philanthropies<\/p>\n

Independent economist Chris Richardson says the type of co-operation needed to deal with AI risks could be \u201cspectacularly hard.\u201d He compares it to dealing with climate change \u2013 something the world\u2019s been grappling with for decades. Worryingly, AI is moving much faster than climate change.<\/p>\n

\u201cMost of the nations and businesses regard themselves as highly competitive with each other,\u201d Richardson says. \u201cTo solve a global problem, you need some degree of global cooperation, and we are just not good at that.\u201d<\/p>\n

UNSW Scientia Professor of economics Richard Holden says there are examples of ways to address a collective action problem, and he believes much of this could be done in the US, because it\u2019s leading on AI frontier model development.<\/p>\n

Related Article\"A<\/a><\/p>\n

While he\u2019s sceptical of some of the AI researchers\u2019 more outlandish claims, he says policymakers can respond to collective action problems by either regulating, or encouraging co-operation to head off the risks.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt could be \u2018stop racing too fast and releasing things before they\u2019ve been vetted properly,\u2019 or it could be encouraging people to share information with each other, share information with third parties,\u201d Holden says.<\/p>\n

AI firms have every incentive to tell dramatic stories about how amazing their product is, and we need to be sceptical about wild claims about the risks to humanity from their technology. Some of this is self-serving hype.<\/p>\n

But if there\u2019s even slim chance these doomsday warnings are correct, then there should be greater regulating or vetting of the most advanced AI models, to limit the risk of some unintended disaster. Economics and common sense tell us the companies can\u2019t be counted on to slow down by themselves.<\/p>\n

The Business Briefing newsletter delivers major stories, exclusive coverage and expert opinion. Sign up to get it every weekday morning<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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\"ClancyClancy Yeates<\/a> is deputy business editor. He has covered banking and financial services, and was previously national business correspondent in the Canberra bureau.Connect via X<\/a> or email<\/a>.From our partners<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"September 14, 2026 \u2014 5:00am Save You have reached your maximum number of saved items. Remove items from…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":891062,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[256,254,255,64,63,105],"class_list":["post-891061","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-artificial-intelligence","tag-ai","tag-artificial-intelligence","tag-artificialintelligence","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-technology"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/891061","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=891061"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/891061\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/891062"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=891061"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=891061"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=891061"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}