Here are\u00a0five takeaways\u00a0from Honeywood\u2019s Australia briefing at the Glasgow conference:<\/p>\n
1. Refusal rates turn student visas into a \u201clottery\u201c<\/p>\n
Honeywood highlighted the current reality for two major source countries \u2013 around\u00a019% visa approval\u00a0for\u00a0Nepal and around\u00a049% visa approval\u00a0for\u00a0India.<\/p>\n
Those numbers sit on top of what he described as\u00a0\u201cthe world\u2019s highest non\u2011refundable student visa application fees\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cBear in mind, these young people are having to pay\u00a0AUD $2,500<\/a> non\u2011refundable application fee, and it\u2019s like a\u00a0lottery ticket\u00a0for some of them,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cObviously that means that for a number of countries,\u00a0particularly for Latin America, they\u2019re just\u00a0not applying to come to Australia, unfortunately.\u201d<\/p>\n 2. Commencement data shows one strong pillar, and several that are weakening<\/p>\n As Australia operates under a National Planning Level<\/a> for new international students, it can still point to headline growth in higher education, but Honeywood\u2019s breakdown of commencements shows a much more uneven landscape.\u00a0Total commencements in 2025 were 474,255, down from an all\u2011time peak of\u00a0564,952 in 2024.<\/p>\n Drawing on\u00a02019\u20132026 (year\u2011to\u2011date May)\u00a0data, he noted that\u00a0higher education\u00a0is\u00a0tracking steady on last year\u00a0and sits around\u00a013% above 2019. In contrast,\u00a0ELICOS\u00a0is\u00a0down 19% on last year\u00a0and\u00a056% below 2019.<\/p>\n VET\u00a0commencements are\u00a0down 14% year\u2011on\u2011year\u00a0and\u00a013% below 2019.\u00a0Schools\u00a0are\u00a0down around 13% on the previous year\u00a0and\u00a027% down on 2019, and account for just\u00a02% of Australia\u2019s international enrolments, compared with\u00a022% in New Zealand.<\/p>\n For Honeywood, English language enrolments are the key early\u2011warning signal.<\/p>\n \u201cEnglish language, which we often call the\u00a0canary in the coal mine\u00a0in Australia\u2026 that\u2019s down particularly [badly].\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cIf you come in to do English language for 20 weeks in our country, do you want to pay\u00a0$2,500, which is the equivalent of\u00a0five weeks of English language study, for a non\u2011refundable application fee?\u201d<\/p>\n 3. A new national \u201cframework\u201d will hard\u2011wire skills\u2011based allocations<\/p>\n Australia is also in the middle of re\u2011articulating its\u00a0national vision\u00a0for international education. Within that framework will sit\u00a0four pillars, one of which is\u00a0transnational education (TNE)\u00a0\u2013 an area where Australia is now rapidly expanding, particularly in India. <\/p>\n But perhaps the most structurally significant change is the creation of a\u00a0new arm\u2019s\u2011length government body \u2013 the Australian Tertiary Education Commission<\/a> (ATEC).<\/p>\n \u201cWe now have a\u00a0new government body, which, at arm\u2019s length from our minister, will be in future determining\u00a0individual institution allocations\u00a0to international students, and that will be partly based on\u00a0skill needs for Australia.\u201d<\/p>\n In practice, that could mean a rebalancing away from some traditional high\u2011volume disciplines.<\/p>\n \u201cTraditionally, many Chinese students come and do a\u00a0bachelor of business accounting\u00a0in our country. We may well find that we move away from bachelor of business and more to\u00a0allied health, IT, engineering \u2013 skills to build infrastructure.\u201d<\/p>\n Honeywood is pushing Canberra to remember Australia\u2019s longstanding regional role.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s one thing for us to do skills for Australia, but for decades we\u2019ve actually done skills that our\u00a0neighbouring countries need\u00a0for their young people when they go home. So let\u2019s not turn our back on the social good of teaching skills that other countries need, rather than just ourselves.\u201d<\/p>\n 4. More visa tightening is \u201cin the wind\u201d, especially on dependants and course\u2011hopping<\/p>\n \u201cWe will have\u00a0further tightening of visa processing\u00a0to reduce our\u00a0net overseas migration,\u201d said Honeywood.<\/p>\n One likely move is restrictions on\u00a0dependants, mirroring recent UK policy<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cThis could include, following the UK\u2019s piece,\u00a0no dependants\u00a0being able to come on student visas. That hasn\u2019t been announced yet, but let\u2019s just say it\u2019s\u00a0in the wind, except for research and PhD scholarship students.\u201d<\/p>\n The Australian\u00a0r<\/a>ecently reported<\/a>\u00a0that the government is also considering blocking students from moving from higher education into the vocational education and training (VET) sector, as well as broader measures to limit \u201cvisa hopping\u201d and onshore pathways to migration.<\/p>\n A spokesperson for the Department of Home Affairs told The PIE News that \u201cthe government is considering a range of reforms to the migration system to ensure it continues to operate in the national interest\u201d and said that \u201cany changes will be announced in due course\u201d.<\/p>\n 5. Yet Australia still leans into post\u2011study work and two\u2011way regional ties<\/p>\n Despite the tightening mood, Honeywood was keen to stress that not everything is heading in a negative direction, \u00a0pointing in particular to\u00a0increased engagement with Southeast Asia as a priority region, with students from these countries\u00a0shielded from the sharpest visa fee hikes\u00a0and seeing only a modest $50 increase.<\/p>\n He also pointed to\u00a0ongoing support for post\u2011study work rights, which remain a core part of Australia\u2019s offer and are still comparatively generous among major destination countries.<\/p>\n \u201cWe do have the ongoing support for\u00a0post\u2011study work rights, and it\u2019s probably\u00a0the most generous at the moment\u00a0with the big countries. So typically, it\u2019s about a\u00a0three\u2011year post\u2011study period\u00a0which you can work full\u2011time after you graduate.\u201d<\/p>\n Honeywood also highlighted Australia\u2019s commitment to\u00a0two\u2011way mobility\u00a0and regional engagement through the\u00a0New Colombo Plan, which sends around\u00a014,000 young Australians each year\u00a0to study in Indo\u2011Pacific universities.<\/p>\n He described it as \u201ca wonderful initiative that sends about\u00a014,000 young Australians each year\u00a0to study in Indo\u2011Pacific universities\u201d and focuses on which ensuring a\u00a0two\u2011way mobility flow.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Here are\u00a0five takeaways\u00a0from Honeywood\u2019s Australia briefing at the Glasgow conference: 1. 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