To date, the world has failed to tackle<\/a> climate change head-on. We must now focus on limiting the magnitude and duration of \u201covershoot<\/a>\u201d \u2013 how much global temperatures exceed the 1.5\u00b0C limit. Every fraction of a degree our planet warms, and every year spent there, will inflict irreversible ecological damage.<\/p>\n A new report<\/a>, developed by my research team at Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, asks a simple question: what can Australia do to limit this overshoot?<\/p>\n A worrying future<\/p>\n Our latest research<\/a> suggests the world can still limit peak warming to about 1.7\u00b0C, reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions in the 2060s, and bring warming back below 1.5\u00b0C by 2100. But only if governments take urgent and ambitious action.<\/p>\n Fossil fuels \u2013 including oil, coal and gas \u2013 account for more than 75%<\/a> of global greenhouse gas emissions. To curb climate change, we must rapidly transition away from their use. Australia committed to this goal at COP28<\/a> in 2023, at COP30 by signing the Bel\u00e9m Declaration<\/a> and at the Santa Marta conference<\/a> in April 2026.<\/p>\n In Australia, we\u2019ve had too many reminders of what\u2019s at stake. The horrific Black Summer fires<\/a> of 2019\u201320. Repeated record floods, including across Queensland and northern New South Wales following the 2017 Cyclone Debbie<\/a>. Not to mention the mass bleaching of the Great Barrier<\/a>, Ningaloo<\/a> and Scott<\/a> reefs.<\/p>\n Now, a potentially record-shattering El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> is forming. Research suggests<\/a> it could temporarily push global warming towards 1.7\u00b0C or even 1.8\u00b0C in 2027, likely bringing extreme heat<\/a> and drought conditions to Australia.<\/p>\n Our new report<\/a> shows Australia can realistically meet our climate targets. But that demands we urgently adopt an ambitious emissions pathway<\/a>, built on the Paris Agreement.<\/p>\n A Paris-aligned emissions pathway would require Australia to transform its energy system.<\/p>\n Fossil fuels<\/p>\n Fossil fuels supply about 90%<\/a> of our country\u2019s raw energy and make up a large share<\/a> of our greenhouse gas emissions. Australia is also one of the world\u2019s biggest fossil fuel exporters, producing roughly 4.5%<\/a> of global carbon dioxide emissions.<\/p>\n To achieve our suggested pathway, Australia\u2019s net emissions would need to fall 55% below 2005 levels \u2013 the year on which Australia\u2019s national targets<\/a> are based \u2013 by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050. <\/p>\n But under current policies, Australia will barely meet its 2030 target of a 43% reduction<\/a>. Worryingly, this means we will likely arrive at 2050 with 245 million tonnes of residual emissions still to be offset \u2013 more than half of today\u2019s net emissions. Australia would also need its coal and liquefied natural gas production to drop by about 80% and 25%, respectively, by 2035. Coal exports would have to fall by 95% before 2040.<\/p>\n Renewables<\/p>\n Decarbonisation<\/a> \u2013 switching from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources such as wind and solar \u2013 is critical to staying below the 1.5\u00b0C limit. <\/p>\n To achieve this, electricity must make up 50% of Australia\u2019s national energy demand by 2035, up from 25% in 2025. However, current policies would only deliver 33% by 2035, so the 35% by 2035<\/a> electrification goal Australia and Turkey are putting forward at this year\u2019s COP31 summit is simply business as usual.<\/p>\n Achieving these reductions would require major policy changes. <\/p>\n For starters, the current non-binding target of 82% renewables<\/a> by 2030 \u2013 which Australia is likely to miss<\/a> according to the Australian Energy Market Operator \u2013 must be strengthened and made binding. This would make it possible to speed up the renewables rollout, potentially reaching 96% renewables by 2035.<\/p>\n The Safeguard Mechanism<\/a> \u2013 a federal government policy that sets legally binding pollution limits on industrial facilities \u2013 must be properly enforced. In 2025, industrial emissions appeared to fall by just 2.3%<\/a> \u2013 less than half the 4.9% annual decline<\/a> needed. What\u2019s more, data from the 196 facilities covered by the Safeguard Mechanism in both 2023\u201324 and 2024\u201325 shows their combined emissions dropped by just 0.4%. That\u2019s because the mechanism effectively offers companies unlimited offsets<\/a> that decrease their net emissions. <\/p>\n The moment to fix this is the 2026\u201327 Safeguard Mechanism review<\/a>, which is currently receiving stakeholder feedback.<\/p>\n In the oil-dominated transport sector, there are calls for the government to end<\/a> new petrol and diesel car sales by 2035. However, it has no current plan or policies to electrify heavy vehicle freight. Emissions from mining \u2013 one of the few industries where fossil fuel use is still rising \u2013 could be pulled down to zero by 2045 if we replace diesel with electricity in trucks, equipment and processing. Scrapping the diesel rebate and other fossil fuel subsidies would also help.<\/p>\n Walking the talk<\/p>\n An Australian fossil fuel phase-out would be a signal of genuine leadership, particularly among our Pacific neighbours<\/a> already grappling with rapidly rising seas<\/a>.<\/p>\n Yet, the Albanese government has approved 37<\/a> new, expanded or extended fossil fuel projects since coming to power. It has 42 more in the pipeline for approval. <\/p>\n This goes directly against the International Court of Justice which, in its 2025 advisory opinion on climate change, found licensing new fossil fuel projects can constitute an \u201cinternationally wrongful act<\/a>\u201d.<\/p>\n Australia is set to lead talks<\/a> at COP31 in November and has vowed to continue the push<\/a> for a fossil fuel transition. However, we cannot demand that others respect climate targets we ourselves are failing to meet. <\/p>\n We already have a pathway to keep global warming below 1.5\u00b0C. What\u2019s missing is the political will to take it. \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Bill Hare<\/a>, Adjunct Professor of Energy, Murdoch University<\/a>, CEO, Climate Analytics<\/p>\n This article is republished from The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"This article was originally published by The Conversation. Author: Bill Hare, Murdoch University Within the next five years,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":895169,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[64,63,44],"class_list":["post-895168","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-australia","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/895168","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=895168"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/895168\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/895169"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=895168"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=895168"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=895168"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"Out](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/gettyimages-2154580748.jpg\" "\\"Out")
\u00a0The path forward<\/p>\n![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/fossil-fuel-demand-reduces-almost-to-zero-by-2050-under-the-australian-fossil-fuel-phaseout-ffpo-sce.png\" "\\"fossil-fuel-demand-reduces-almost-to-zero-by-2050-under-the-australian-fossil-fuel-phaseout-ffpo-scenario\\"")
<\/p>\n![\"Solar](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/gettyimages-1450272068.jpg\" "\\"Solar")
\u00a0Policy must keep up<\/p>\n![\"The](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/1789638983_162_count.gif\")
<\/p>\n![\"The](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/gettyimages-2267974913.jpg\" "\\"The")
<\/p>\n