As we all know, Ant would go on to be picked first overall by the Minnesota Timberwolves<\/a>, and soon bloomed into a bona fide superstar and one of the best players in the sport.<\/p>\n Many would claim that Ant has significantly exceeded expectations, even considering the high pre-draft praise and excitement about his ceiling. I wouldn\u2019t argue too hard against that. Most would agree that he has left the \u201crealistic\u201d or \u201csweet spot\u201d comparisons of Victor Oladipo, DeMar DeRozan, and Zach LaVine in the dust. Is there any way that the projections were misinformed or unjustified? The red flags were certainly there, but perhaps scouts and fans were too hasty in taking them at face value. Given all the information we had access to pre-draft, is there a way to explain his current success?<\/p>\n All this is to say that, although hindsight is 20\/20, was Ant perhaps underrated by many as a prospect? That is what I will be making the case for. By taking a look at the scouting reports and draft profiles, we can see exactly where assessments fell short and use evidence and data to paint a different picture of Anthony Edwards, the prospect.<\/p>\n Ant\u2019s physical profile was universally viewed as a remarkable combination of positional size, explosive power, and quick-twitch burst. Standing at 6\u20195 with a 6\u20199 wingspan and weighing a hefty 225 lb, while boasting a 41.5-inch vertical according to BleacherReports\u2019 Jake Fischer, he was unequivocally an athletic specimen; an elite NBA guard\u2019s frame with the power and mass of a running back is extraordinarily rare even among the best of the best, and it allowed him to rise for athletic finishes and dunks frequently (27 dunks in the 2020 season). However, even with respect to the athleticism, I feel some of the nuance regarding Ant was neglected in pre-draft discussions.<\/p>\n The prevailing sense was that he was vertically explosive, big, and fast, which helps him finish at the rim and in transition. However, scouts were still understandably concerned about his ability to score efficiently at the next level. After all, even given these extreme athletic traits, he posted a mere 51.7% true shooting percentage at Georgia, landing in the 13th percentile positionally. So how do you explain his massive improvements as a scorer? It\u2019s easy to chalk it up to any number of factors, but the most important one is a part of his athleticism that tends to fly under the radar, even today.<\/p>\n Prior to the draft, the P3 Peak Performance Project measured Ant\u2019s eccentric force production in the 98th percentile (FYI, eccentric force is the force produced by a muscle during the stretching\/lengthening phase, used for deceleration movements). They note that, crucially, this is a trait shared by James Harden and Luka Don\u010di\u0107, players who excel at scoring using change-of-direction, stop-start moves – which is also something that Ant improved at by leaps and bounds, and was key to his ascension into one of the league\u2019s premier scorers.<\/p>\n While Ant didn\u2019t enter the league with Luka-level polish skill-wise or decision-making-wise, the athletic foundation for his current dynamic skillset was already there. Using repeated bursts and sharp brakes is a proven formula for efficient self-created volume scoring at the highest level, and Ant had brakes of the highest caliber on an extremely powerful engine.<\/p>\n While this was already observable during his explosive, fluid downhill forays and several of his off-the-dribble jumpers, most scouts and fans seemed more enamored with his north-south and vertical traits. Part of the reason for this is that the sheer level of shooter Ant has become is, by any stretch of the imagination, a surprise, and not many thought it likely that these qualities could become the basis of an elite, efficient pull-up 3-point shooting game, hence the comparisons to players like DeRozan and even optimistic ones like Wade, whose deceleration qualities are often overlooked.<\/p>\n Ant\u2019s jump shot, which is arguably his most deadly weapon today and a focal point of his skill set, was a question mark going into the draft. His raw three-point percentage at Georgia was certainly uninspiring (29%, 10th percentile positionally), but scouts noted that the mechanics generally passed the eye test, and it was evident that he was able to shoot off the dribble with very little daylight off a bevy of moves.<\/p>\n A free throw percentage of 77% and 60% on non-dunk rim attempts also indicated some level of touch, which pointed towards eventual improvements in jump shot efficiency. Still, becoming a good 3-point shooter, let alone one of the very best in the world, was, nevertheless, a \u201cmaybe\u201d even in an ideal situation.<\/p>\n However, it\u2019s important to draw attention to the sheer volume of shot-creation load-bearing Ant pulled off, which is a quality that tends to get underrated. The 18-year-old managed to get up 13.5 3-point attempts per 100 possessions (92nd percentile, around 52% of which were unassisted), on a 45 offensive load (95th percentile).<\/p>\n His ability to shoulder a large offensive burden by generating self-created threes on demand was extremely high. In fact, it\u2019s historically unique for a player of Ant\u2019s level of slashing ability: Ant was the only freshman in Barttorvik\u2019s entire database (which begins in 2008) to post more than 12 3-point attempts per 100 while also dunking 27 times over the course of the season. A special intersection of youth, 3-point creation, and athletic finishing – foreshadowing a similarly unique status in the NBA today.<\/p>\n
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