![](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/jp-1730786685-rotated.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nPublished On 21 Sep 202621 Sep 2026<\/p>\n
Australia will see more deaths than births by the 2060s, hitting a milestone already surpassed by advanced economies including Japan, Germany and France, according to a government report.<\/p>\n
In its latest Intergenerational Report released on Monday, Australia\u2019s Treasury forecast that the country\u2019s population will hit 39.3 million by 2065-66, 1.8 million lower than projected in its last outlook in 2023.<\/p>\n
Recommended Stories list of 4 itemsend of list<\/p>\n
The Treasury said it expects population growth to average 0.9 percent annually over the next four decades, compared with 1.4 percent over the prior 40 years.<\/p>\n
The number of Australians aged 85 or older is projected to triple by 2065-66, with immigration accounting for all population growth as the fertility rate falls to 1.34, the Treasury said.<\/p>\n
Despite plunging birthrates, the Treasury said it expects the economy to more than double in size by the mid-2060s, citing productivity gains due to artificial intelligence and greater workforce participation by women and older Australians.<\/p>\n
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said that while Australia\u2019s economy faces serious risks due to the demographic shift, it also holds \u201csubstantial\u201d advantages compared with its peers.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe report confirms Australia is better placed and better prepared to deal with rapid change than most countries, but despite our advantages we cannot be complacent,\u201d Chalmers said in a statement accompanying the report.<\/p>\n
The outlook comes as Australia, whose economic growth is largely dependent on migration-driven population growth, grapples with deteriorating living standards amid a long-term slowdown in labour productivity.<\/p>\n
Australia\u2019s 20-year average for annual productivity growth fell to 0.8 percent in 2023-24, compared with 1.8 percent in 2003-04, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.<\/p>\n
Greater labour productivity allows an economy to produce more goods and services with the same amount of man-hours, raising economic growth and boosting living standards.<\/p>\n
The Business Council of Australia on Monday expressed scepticism about the assumptions in the government\u2019s economic outlook, saying it \u201ccannot be taken for granted\u201d that long-term productivity growth will rise to 1.2 percent due to AI.<\/p>\n
The council, which represents more than 120 of Australia\u2019s largest companies, said real gross domestic product per person is almost $2,000 lower today than expected under the 2023 forecast, due to weak productivity growth.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is not a problem that starts 40 years from now \u2013 Australians are already paying the price for our failure to lift productivity through lower living standards,\u201d Business Council Chief Executive Bran Black said.<\/p>\n
\u201cEvery man, woman and child in Australia is almost $2,000 worse off because we haven\u2019t achieved the path anticipated in the 2023 Intergenerational Report.\u201d<\/p>\n
Tim Robinson, a research fellow at the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, said that while AI may improve Australia\u2019s lagging productivity, the \u201cextent and timing\u201d of the potential gains are uncertain.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019ve had a flat level of labour productivity for around a decade. Without it, the Australian economy can\u2019t grow as fast without running into inflation issues, and people\u2019s living standards don\u2019t improve by as much as they did in the past,\u201d Robinson told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf the Australian economy achieves the productivity growth assumed in the Intergenerational Report, that would be a marked turnaround,\u201d Robinson said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Number of Australians aged 85 or older projected to triple by 2065-66, according to government forecast. Published On…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":900188,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[77,64,63,6073,5923,164,44],"class_list":["post-900187","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-australia","tag-asia-pacific","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-business-and-economy","tag-demographics","tag-economy","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/900187","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=900187"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/900187\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/900188"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=900187"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=900187"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=900187"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}