{"id":904062,"date":"2026-09-24T19:08:24","date_gmt":"2026-09-24T19:08:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/904062\/"},"modified":"2026-09-24T19:08:24","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T19:08:24","slug":"australia-intergenerational-report-we-dont-need-more-babies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/904062\/","title":{"rendered":"Australia intergenerational report: We don\u2019t need more babies"},"content":{"rendered":"

September 25, 2026 \u2014 5:00am<\/p>\n

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The worry around falling fertility makes sense \u2026 sort of. Deaths in Australia are projected to outnumber births by the 2060s: the first time such a turning point has been forecast in the government\u2019s intergenerational report (a document which has been released at least every five years for the past three decades laying out what the next 40 years might look like).<\/p>\n

One forecast in the latest report is that the country\u2019s population growth will slow. We will, however, offset some of the drop-off through migration. But neither more babies nor higher migration are things we should be focused on.<\/p>\n

\"MoreMore babies is not the solution to Australia\u2019s problems, but it could happen if we focus on the right issues.Shutterstock<\/p>\n

Like most attempts at crystal-balling, exact details and timelines laid out in the intergenerational report are unlikely to play out. But we are grappling with an ageing population \u2013 and several other countries around the world have already given us glimpses of what this might look like.<\/p>\n

There are several things that understandably might scare us about having a bigger share of older Australians. First, there will be growing demands for health and aged care that come with older bodies and minds \u2013 and a very possible shortage of working age Australians able to supply this care by working as nurses and aged care workers.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s also a tricky thing for the nation\u2019s budget. While superannuation should help Australians pay for some of this care when the time comes, there will inevitably be people who, for various reasons, need extra support.<\/p>\n

Related Article\"This<\/a><\/p>\n

Meeting the higher demand for these services also means the government will need to spend more money on building hospitals and care facilities. At the same time, a shrinking share of the population being working-age will likely leave the government struggling to rake in enough money (through things such as income tax) to pay for everything from schools to hospitals.<\/p>\n

The trade-off, then, would be to either ramp up taxes or cut back government spending. There are probably sensible ways to do both of these things. But both come with substantial costs.<\/p>\n

One of the \u201csolutions\u201d often discussed is population growth. While increasing migration is controversial, there are fewer people opposed to \u201cnatural\u201d population growth: that is, population growth through Australians having babies (at a high enough rate, usually 2.1 children per woman, to exceed the number of deaths, and not including migration).<\/p>\n

Australia\u2019s fertility rate \u2013 the expected births per woman \u2013 last peaked in 2008 at 2.02, but by 2024, it had plunged to a record low of 1.48. And the latest intergenerational report predicts it will keep dropping, hitting 1.34 by 2066<\/a> \u2013 substantially down from the 1.62 births per woman forecast around this period in the 2023 intergenerational report.<\/p>\n

Of course, we should be paying attention to our fertility rate \u2013 but not necessarily because it is the solution to our ageing population problem.<\/p>\n

Yes, having more children could be a relatively \u201cimmediate\u201d fix, giving us more young people to do caring jobs and help pay the taxes to fund the services we\u2019ll need. But of course, the unfortunate (and, in other ways: fortunate) reality is that we all age.<\/p>\n

\"CountriesCountries such as Japan are already facing the challenges that come with an ageing population.Getty Images<\/p>\n

This means that relying on population growth indefinitely is unrealistic. As the study of economics reminds us, resources (everything we consume and use) are scarce, meaning constantly striving for more people to live on Earth will put more pressure on existing resources.<\/p>\n

Despite our leaps forward in technologies such as renewable energy generation and recycling, Australians (and, in fact, most populations around the world) still do more damage to the environment than we can offset. Adding more people without turning this trend around risks us causing more (potentially irreversible) damage to the environment, which in turn, will hurt us.<\/p>\n

Related Article\"Treasurer<\/a><\/p>\n

That doesn\u2019t mean we shouldn\u2019t think about Australia\u2019s fertility rate and what it tells us. Part of the reason Australians are having fewer children, for example, is almost certainly that cost of living pressures have risen for younger Australians and that they have struggled to reach a point of financial security where they feel comfortable enough to have a child (or multiple children).<\/p>\n

One of the problems we should be trying to solve is intergenerational equity: making sure younger Australians have a fair opportunity to generate their own wealth, get into home ownership if they want to (or be able to rent securely), and earn enough to support themselves (and potentially a family).<\/p>\n

The government\u2019s recent changes to the capital gains tax discount and negative gearing are good starting points. Despite the outcry they\u2019ve generated about slowing (and falling) property prices, they have helped to bring home ownership slightly closer within reach for many who have been locked out as house prices climbed faster than their wages.<\/p>\n

It has also helped to make our tax system more efficient. Rather than unnecessarily rewarding investment spending on existing housing (which does not add to the country\u2019s productivity), it makes it relatively more attractive to put money into things (such as new housing, or investment in businesses) that help us get more out of our people.<\/p>\n

Related Article\"Treasurer<\/a><\/p>\n

With or without an ageing population (although a greying population does make it more crucial), and with or without a growing population, productivity growth is the thing we need to focus on. If we can increase our productivity \u2013 our ability to make and do more with the resources we have \u2013 we have a much better shot at continuing to be able to provide the services that will be in demand over the decades to come.<\/p>\n

The intergenerational report is optimistic \u2013 probably overly so \u2013 about Australia\u2019s economic position.<\/p>\n

We do have a younger population compared to many similar countries, meaning we\u2019re not staring down the barrel of the \u201cageing population\u201d gun as inescapably as some other places such as Japan, which are already struggling heavily.<\/p>\n

We\u2019re also lucky in that we\u2019ve taken up technologies that can harness renewable energy sources such as solar at a rate that is among the highest in the world. That means that energy shortages and cost surges might not hit us as hard, even as geopolitical conflict and dwindling fossil fuel reserves reduce the supply of traditional power sources.<\/p>\n

\"TheThe optimistic assumptions for productivity growth in the latest intergenerational report partly rely on uptake of AI.Bloomberg<\/p>\n

But it\u2019s probably overly optimistic for the government to assume, as it has done in its latest intergenerational report, that our yearly productivity growth will hit 1.2 per cent given it has been 0.8 per cent over the past two decades<\/a> and even lower \u2013 0.3 per cent \u2013 over the past 10 years.<\/p>\n

Part of that optimism is based on the assumption that Australians will take up artificial intelligence and that it will noticeably boost our ability to do our work (therefore making us more productive).<\/p>\n

It seems risky, though, to rely on it as a driver of productivity growth. While some businesses and workers report benefits from using AI in their work, there\u2019s undoubtedly also people who are having to deal with problems such as the uptick in \u201cAI slop\u201d (nonsensical or low-quality content produced by AI) which, in some cases, is slowing down our work or reducing the quality of the goods and services we produce.<\/p>\n

Related Article\"I<\/a><\/p>\n

Some of these problems might improve over time as we figure out the best uses for AI and the technology itself improves. But we\u2019re also, rightly, facing ethical dilemmas about how fast we should allow the technology to progress, with some of the leaders of the biggest AI companies<\/a> calling for a freeze on its development.<\/p>\n

The government has taken some important steps in boosting the country\u2019s productivity, but it shouldn\u2019t pat itself on the back with its latest intergenerational report.<\/p>\n

We should also keep in mind that population growth \u2013 whether through migration or births \u2013 is not the problem (or the solution) we should be focused on. It\u2019s a symptom of the challenges we face, and could well ease once we fix the real problem: productivity rather than reproductivity.<\/p>\n

The Business Briefing newsletter delivers major stories, exclusive coverage and expert opinion. Sign up to get it every weekday morning<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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\"MillieMillie Muroi<\/a> is the economics writer at The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age covering workplace and economics. She was formerly an economics correspondent based in Canberra\u2019s Press Gallery and the banking writer based in Sydney.Connect via X<\/a> or email<\/a>.From our partners<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"September 25, 2026 \u2014 5:00am Save You have reached your maximum number of saved items. Remove items from…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":904063,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[64,63,44],"class_list":["post-904062","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-australia","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/904062","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=904062"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/904062\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/904063"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=904062"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=904062"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=904062"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}