{"id":905990,"date":"2026-09-26T08:34:15","date_gmt":"2026-09-26T08:34:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/905990\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T08:34:15","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T08:34:15","slug":"ufc-vegas-121-preview-rosas-jr-vs-barcelos-main-co-main-event-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/905990\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC Vegas 121 preview: \u2018Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos\u2019 main, co-main event predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Vegas 121<\/a> mixed martial arts (MMA) event, which is set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., Sept. 26, 2026) on Paramount+<\/a> from inside Meta Apex<\/a> in Las Vegas, Nevada. UFC Vegas 121 features a bantamweight main event between 135-pound standouts Raul Rosas Jr. and Raoni Barcelos, a five-round showdown that could shake up the division Top 10<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Before we dive into the main and co-main event, which includes the 135-pound collision between Top 5 women\u2019s bantamweight contenders<\/a> Norma Dumont and Ail\u00edn Perez, check out Andrew Richardson\u2019s \u201cX-Factor\u201d breakdown for the rest of the UFC Vegas 121 main card by clicking here<\/a>. Get all the latest \u201cRosas Jr. vs. Barcelos\u201d odds and betting props courtesy of FanDuel right here<\/a>. For complete UFC Vegas 121 live results and play-by-play click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"Tim<\/a>\"MMA<\/p>\n

135 lbs.: Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos<\/p>\n

Raul \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o Problema\u201d Rosas Jr.
Record: 12-1 | Age: 21 | Betting line: -165
Wins: 2 KO\/TKO, 6 SUB, 4 DEC | Losses: 0 KO\/TKO, 0 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 5\u20199\u201d | Reach: 67\u201d | Stance: Switch
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 1.34 | Striking accuracy: 42%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 1.24 | Striking Defense: 52%
Takedown Average: 6.10 (54% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 25%
Current Ranking: No. 12<\/a> | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Rob Font<\/p>\n

Raoni Barcelos
Record: 22-5 | Age: 39 | Betting line: +135
Wins: 8 KO\/TKO, 3 SUB, 11 DEC | Losses: 1 KO\/TKO, 1 SUB, 3 DEC
Height: 5\u20197\u201c | Reach: 67\u201d | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.65 | Striking accuracy: 51%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.24 | Striking Defense: 60%
Takedown Average: 2.51 (31% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 87%
Current Ranking: No. 13<\/a> | Last fight: Split decision win over Montel Jackson<\/p>\n

Raul Rosas Jr. is just 21 years old but already 12-1 in MMA and 6-1 under the UFC banner. \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o Problema\u201d is not ranked in the official Meta Rankings but the media has him ranked one spot above Raoni Barcelos at No. 12, for whatever that\u2019s worth (hint: not much). Rosas Jr. is fairly-one dimensional fighter, relying on his wrestling to neutralize his opponents while hunting for the submission, leading to six taps in 12 wins. After watching Gable Steveson get knocked into the shadow realm<\/a> last weekend in Los Angeles, I don\u2019t expect Rosas Jr. to start experimenting with his standup \u2014 and why should he? He\u2019s comfortably outwrestled seven of his eight opponents and needs just three takedowns in this fight to move into No. 3 all-time in the bantamweight record book. That said, he\u2019s up against a fellow wrestler ranked No. 8 all-time in takedowns who will be looking for a couple of takedowns of his own.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019ve got to be ready for short notice fights, be willing to take risks, and this Saturday, make a big statement for sure,\u201d Rosas Jr. told Full Send MMA<\/a>. \u201cNot just a win, but I\u2019ve got to make a statement. If by 25 I accomplish everything that I want to accomplish in my career, I\u2019m just going to step back from the sport. The goal is to get the belt and then defend it a couple of times, try to challenge myself, go up a weight class, maybe two, and after I\u2019m done, like, I run out of goals, that\u2019s when I\u2019m just gonna quit. It could be 26, 27, 28, but I\u2019m just saying whenever I\u2019m done with my goals, that\u2019s when I\u2019m gonna step out of the game.\u201d<\/p>\n

Raoni Barcelos went from promising prospect, to middling bantamweight, to red-hot veteran over the last eight years. He\u2019s currently the winner of five straight, upsetting 135-pound wunderkind Payton Talbott while also turning away former champion Cody Garbrandt, among others. Like Rosas Jr., Barcelos relies heavily on offensive wresting and averages 2.5 takedowns per fight (compared to 6.1 for his opponent). There\u2019s no question Barcelos has faced tougher competition throughout his career, going head-to-head against the likes of Umar and Said Nurmagomedov, as well as grizzled veterans like Ricky Simon and Chris Gutierrez. If there\u2019s a critique to be made, it\u2019s that Barcelos has only finished one fight over the last seven years, not a great sign for a fighter who is pushing 40 years old and still ranked outside the Top 10.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt doesn\u2019t scare me,\u201d Barcelos said about his opponent\u2019s youth during the UFC Vegas 121 media day<\/a>. \u201cI think after the Payton Talbott fight, I just became more and more confident in myself, seeing what I could do. Raul is tough and he\u2019s going to keep growing. There are a lot of other great fighters for him to fight. There are a lot of other great fights for him but this is my moment. I really believe this is my moment and my time. I think building a story is what brings you fans. I really have a story, and I think people are noticing that. I think I\u2019ve been gaining more fans, and I\u2019m going to gain even more fans. It\u2019s really cool to see that and just keep going with what I\u2019m doing.\u201d<\/p>\n

Barcelos is the more experienced, well-rounded fighter and I would pick him in a three-round fight. But neither combatant has gone five rounds under the UFC banner and I can\u2019t pick a 39-year-old veteran over a 21-year-old dynamo, especially when both fighters are going to be wrestling for the majority of the fight.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Rosas Jr. def. Barcelos by unanimous decision<\/p>\n

\"Tim<\/a>\"MMA<\/p>\n

135 lbs.: Norma Dumont vs. Ail\u00edn Perez<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Immortal\u201d Norma Dumont
Record: 13-3 | Age: 35 | Betting line: +130
Wins: 0 KO\/TKO, 2 SUB, 11 DEC | Losses: 1 KO\/TKO, 0 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 5\u20197\u201c | Reach: 67\u201d | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.85 | Striking accuracy: 50%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.33 | Striking Defense: 64%
Takedown Average: 1.43 (57% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 71%
Current Ranking: No. 2 | Last fight: Unanimous decision loss to Joselyne Edwards<\/p>\n

Ail\u00edn \u201cFiona\u201d Perez
Record: 13-2 | Age: 31 | Betting line: -155
Wins: 4 KO\/TKO, 2 SUB, 7 DEC | Losses: 0 KO\/TKO, 1 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 5\u20195\u201c | Reach: 66\u201d | Stance: Switch
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 2.88 | Striking accuracy: 56%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 1.58 | Striking Defense: 56%
Takedown Average: 4.90 (49% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 72%
Current Ranking: No. 4 | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Macy Chiasson<\/p>\n

Norma Dumont is coming off a loss but still ranked No. 2 at 135 pounds. That\u2019s because she was defeated by the No. 1 contender, Joslyne Edwards, at UFC Vegas 116 back in April. That snapped a six-fight winning streak for the \u201cImmortal\u201d bantamweight, who is now 16 fights into her pro MMA career without a single knockout. In fact, the Brazilian has yet to finish a fight by any method in 12 trips to the Octagon and she hasn\u2019t secured a stoppage since strangling Erica Leidianny Ribeiro on the regional circuit back in 2017. The only thing that matters, at least in terms of the big picture, is wins and losses and Dumont is 9-3 under the UFC banner and included on the very short list of women\u2019s bantamweight title contenders. She\u2019s a low output striker with solid offensive wrestling but comes into this co-main event contest as the slight underdog, likely due to her age and skill set.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s a fight that literally has a personal anger, a personal issue, that the two of us have against each other,\u201d Dumont told MMA Fighting<\/a>. \u201cIt\u2019s a fight that we\u2019re going to deliver a lot. I\u2019m excited, I really want it. I think it\u2019s going to be fun. She has mental problems. This girl really has mental problems. She has this little game of trying to get people worked up. But, honestly, it\u2019s very insignificant, so it makes absolutely no difference to me. Ever since she signed the contract, I\u2019m going to focus on beating her on the 26th. I don\u2019t need to say anything else; I don\u2019t need to fall for her bait or play along with the little things she likes to do. She\u2019s already not someone who has much shame about anything, neither in her personal life nor anything else, so now that the contract is signed, I already have my date to beat her; I have my time to do what I need to do, what I want to do without getting arrested, so it makes absolutely no difference to me what she does outside of the fight.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ail\u00edn Perez is ranked lower than Norma Dumont but is still the odds-on betting favorite. Probably because Perez is a takedown machine and currently sitting at No. 2 all-time for takedowns in the women\u2019s bantamweight division. Her striking is serviceable but it\u2019s really just an excuse to set up her takedowns and when she\u2019s on, she\u2019s virtually unstoppable. Just ask Ashlee Evans-Smith, who was taken down 10 times in her UFC Vegas 117 loss back in summer 2023. Ordinarily when you have a battle of wrestlers, it boils down to which combatant has the better defense. Dumont was taken down six times in a loss to Macy Chiasson and got outwrestled by Ketlen Vieira before losing to Joselyn Edwards \u2014 a bantamweight thoroughly handled and beaten by Perez (who also beat Chiasson). MMA math? Perhaps, but Dumont has two finishes in 13 wins and zero knockouts, so her path to victory remains limited.<\/p>\n

\u201cI feel ready, and not just to fight for the belt, but also to be the backup,\u201d Perez told Hablemos MMA<\/a> in Spanish. \u201cI\u2019m ready to replace Kayla or Amanda should the UFC need someone in November. Kayla is coming off neck surgery, and Amanda is older now. What happens is someone gets hurt in the weight cut, or something happens, Ailin Perez will be ready. I came to get a title shot. I came for that. But if I don\u2019t get it, then it will be in the next fight. I have faith that I will get it, and I\u2019m playing all my cards. I\u2019m not just winning, but also growing my name. I have the respect of the people, and I\u2019ve earned that. Like always, I lay it all on the line, and whatever happens, happens. I\u2019ll be ready.\u201d<\/p>\n

Dumont is older and more limited in her attack. I think this is a one-sided fight.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Perez def. Dumont by unanimous decision <\/p>\n

\"Anton<\/a>\"MMA<\/p>\n

Let’s play: Numbered UFC event or Fight Night?<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

The Paramount deal killed PPVs, eliminated the need to truly promote numbered events, and guaranteed the UFC billions. Dana White routinely said money makes fighters lazy, but is the opposite happening now for the UFC?<\/p>\n

This has been trending badly since the ESPN deal, but I’d argue it’s even worse now. Here’s a test: A year ago, would you have properly guessed which were numbered events or fight nights in this current stretch of headliners?<\/p>\n

Buckley vs. Malott<\/p>\n

Allen vs. Duncan<\/p>\n

Silva vs. Wang<\/p>\n

Rosas vs. Barcelos<\/p>\n

Van vs. Pantoja<\/p>\n

Silva vs. Delgado<\/p>\n

Hooker vs. Parnasse<\/p>\n

Nurmagomedov vs. Song<\/p>\n

Hernandes vs. Rodrigues<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Rec 7CommentsThin Stroke Comment Icon BubbleReplyRead 12 replies<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t forget to check out the rest of the UFC Vegas 121 main card predictions RIGHT HERE<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Vegas 121 mixed martial arts…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":905991,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[570],"tags":[64,63,786,40762,785,85,1396,179146,19457,7990,1647],"class_list":["post-905990","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mma","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-fighting","tag-latest-ufc-mma-news","tag-mma","tag-sports","tag-ufc-news","tag-ufc-on-paramount","tag-ufc-predictions","tag-ufc-previews","tag-upcoming-ufc-events"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/905990","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=905990"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/905990\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/905991"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=905990"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=905990"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=905990"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}