Rotoworld Football Show: Run-first Chiefs + Biggest Week 1 surprises, disappointments<\/a><\/p>\nEach week, I\u2019ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.<\/p>\n
2026 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)<\/p>\n
WEEK 3: 4-6<\/p>\n
SEASON TOTAL: 14-16 (47% hit rate)<\/p>\n
BOD Formula and Philosophy<\/p>\n
If you\u2019ve read my earlier articles, then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, \u201cWho is playing a bad offense?\u201d Yet, when I did a deep dive this offseason, I discovered that the stats most commonly connected to top 10 fantasy defenses were first downs allowed, points per game allowed, and third-down conversion rate allowed. So even though I love defenses who get pressure, defenses who can also get off the field quickly tend to be the best fantasy defenses. Perhaps this isn\u2019t a shock, but maybe we\u2019re not really paying attention to the relevant stats when predicting fantasy defensive performance.<\/p>\n
The next four most predictive defensive stats were pressure rate, passes defended, turnover rate, and explosive play rate allowed (plays over 20+ yards). With that in mind, I decided to update my Best Overall Defense (BOD) formula to include just these seven stats. I doubled the weight of the first three stats, which are more predictive, and have a single weight for the other four stats. I also incorporate Vegas\u2019 implied team total in the algorithm every week, and when we get opponent stats, I will include fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses as part of the equation since fantasy points are the strongest predictor of fantasy points.<\/p>\n
I\u2019ll obviously have to make adjustments to the algorithm each week to account for injuries or weather issues, but I try not to rank too much on \u201cgut feel\u201d or concerns about wind, etc.<\/p>\n
With that out of the way, onto the rankings.<\/p>\n
FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC\u2019S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.<\/p>\n
2026 Week 4 DST RankingsRankTier One DSTsOpponent1Minnesota Vikingsvs MIA2Seattle Seahawksvs LAC<\/p>\n
The Vikings are the class of the field across the board through three weeks. So far, they rank first in third-down conversion rate, second #2 in points per game, second in pressure rate, and fourth in turnover rate. Now, they are going to get a Dolphins offense that just lost their best player in De\u2019Von Achane. I just can\u2019t see any way this doesn\u2019t work out swimmingly for the Vikings. <\/p>\n
I know the Seahawks let us down against Marcus Mariota on Sunday, but this defense has an elite floor. Through three weeks, they are first in first downs allowed per game, second in third-down conversion rate, third in points per game, and third in pressure rate. That last one is important against a brutal Chargers offensive line that is also missing starters. We should check back in and see if safeties Julian Love and Ty Okada are both out again, but this Chargers offense has looked in disarray so far this season. Justin Herbert doesn\u2019t look comfortable and is making bad reads, so I\u2019m going to have confidence in playing an angry Seahawks defense.<\/p>\n
RankTier Two DSTsOpponent3Pittsburgh Steelersat CLE4Baltimore Ravensvs TEN5Kansas City Chiefsvs LV6Buffalo Billsvs NE7Cleveland Brownsvs PIT8Chicago Bearsvs NYJ<\/p>\n
The Steelers are more consistently good rather than elite, but that could be enough this week against Deshaun Watson and the Browns. I know Cleveland has won two straight games, but the Panthers (without Jalen Coker) and the Bucs are not top-tier NFL teams. The Steelers may not be elite either, but so far this season, they are top-10 in points per game, third-down conversion rate, first downs allowed per game, and turnover rate. I expect TJ Watt and the pass rush to have a solid day against a bad Browns offensive line, so I\u2019m happy to use the Steelers in what might be an ugly game. What\u2019s more, Browns guard Teven Jenkins (back) and center Elgton Jenkins (concussion) were listed as \u201cDNP\u201d on Monday\u2019s estimated practice report. If the Browns offensive line is even more short-handed, that\u2019s a big win for the Steelers.<\/p>\n
I know we want to play the Ravens against Tennessee. However, we do also need to acknowledge that, through three games, the Ravens\u2019 only top-10 category on my sheet is passes defended. Otherwise, this is a middle-of-the-pack defense getting boosted mostly by opponent strength since the Titans\u2019 16 implied point total is the lowest on the slate. Yet, all that said, I\u2019m still going to use the Ravens this week, especially since the Titans lost their starting guard, Fernando Carmona, in Week 3 against the Giants. <\/p>\n
The Chiefs quietly have a solid defensive profile. Through three games, they are fourth in points per game, fifth in turnover rate, and sixth in passes defended. I don\u2019t love the matchup against a Raiders team that got Brock Bowers back last week, but Ashton Jeanty was also seen getting his ankles worked on, and he doesn\u2019t look 100% right now. I expect the Chiefs to be able to score against this Raiders defense, so the Raiders will need Jeanty at 100% to even have a chance here. <\/p>\n
I know this might feel like a risk because this Bills defense hasn\u2019t had great fantasy weeks so far this season, but they have been improving in their new defensive scheme. The Bills rank 6th in Pressure rate and third in passes defended so far this season. Greg Rousseau has 6 sacks in three games and is thriving in the new scheme. That could be big against a Patriots offensive line that is banged up and struggling. The Bills are a bad defense in terms of allowing 1st Down conversions, but they are playing at home with a chance to take a stranglehold on the AFC East against a Patriots team that won\u2019t have A.J. Brown again. That\u2019s a gamble I\u2019ll take.<\/p>\n
The Browns will also be in play against the Steelers on Thursday Night Football even though their only top-10 mark on my sheet is in pressure rate, where they rank 5th. Still, that\u2019s a good place to have talent when you are facing immobile Aaron Rodgers. I think this game will just be relatively ugly, which makes me feel like the Browns have a solid floor here. <\/p>\n
In previous articles, I have said that we don\u2019t want to target the Jets offense so much. They have only one turnover in three games; however, I think a lot of that had to do with facing the Titans and a struggling Packers team. After giving up four sacks total in the first two games, Geno Smith was sacked 5 times against the Lions in Week 3 when the Jets had to play in a shootout. Now the Jets will try to keep pace with the Bears without Breece Hall, who has a thigh injury, and also maybe without Adonai Mitchell again with his finger in a cast. The Lions finished 11th with 7 fantasy points last week, and I think this Bears defense can top that.<\/p>\n
RankTier Three DSTsOpponent9Detroit Lionsat CAR10Jacksonville Jaguarsvs CIN11Tampa Bay Bucsvs GB12San Francisco 49ersvs DEN13New York Jetsat CHI14Green Bay Packersat TB15Los Angeles Ramsat PHI16Arizona Cardinalsat NYG17Atlanta Falconsvs NO<\/p>\n
I\u2019ve moved the Lions up thanks to a wave of Carolina injuries. Starting guard Damien Lewis is out with a UCL tear, and WR Jalen Coker is banged up with a recurring quad issue that could cost him a week or two. Detroit\u2019s own defensive numbers are shaky with a bottom-of-the-league points per game and third-down rate, but their pass rush is real and had five sacks last week. Carolina\u2019s protection just collapsed further, with their fourth offensive line injury of the season, so while the matchup is doing the heavy lifting here, not the underlying stats, I\u2019m OK with the ranking. <\/p>\n
The Jaguars have elite core numbers this season. They are first in points per game allowed, second in turnover rate, third in third-down Conversion rate, and also top-10 in pressure rate. The issue here is that the matchup against the Bengals isn\u2019t good. Cincinnati has an implied team total of 26.5 points, so the Jags being this high is basically pure defensive quality overriding a tough matchup on paper. <\/p>\n
The Bucs are a mediocre defense that will have an undrafted rookie quarterback potentially giving them short fields. That being said, this Packers offense is a mess. They can\u2019t run the ball without Josh Jacobs, and they have lost multiple offensive linemen to injury. The Bucs are Top-10 in first downs allowed per game and third-down conversion rate, and I\u2019m not sure they\u2019re any worse than the Falcons, who just delivered a top-ten performance against the Packers on Thursday night. <\/p>\n
This whole section of my rankings I hate. I just don\u2019t trust any of these defenses. Nick Bosa (calf) being out again is a major loss for the 49ers, and their run defense has been middling all year. Denver isn\u2019t the pushover the implied total suggests since they just beat the Rams 30-26, although the underlying offensive process was shakier than the final score. Bo Nix had his worst completion rate of the season against the Rams, and the Broncos are 24th in EPA per play on offense. Maybe that will make the 49ers playable?<\/p>\n
The Jets\u2019 defensive numbers are real. They\u2019re 2nd in yards allowed, tied for 7th in sacks, and top ten in third-down conversion rate and first downs per game allowed. I know Case Keenum just played a clean, turnover-free 247-yard game against the Eagles, so this may not be an \u201ceasy matchup versus a backup QB,\u201d but I don\u2019t expect Keenum to play that well again, and I think this Jets defense is solid. <\/p>\n
The Packers have no top-10 marks anywhere. They are bottom-3 in points per game, third-down conversion rate, and turnover rate, making this the weakest underlying profile in the top 20. The ranking is entirely matchup-driven, but we can\u2019t ignore the matchup. With Baker Mayfield out with a dislocated thumb, undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels will start for Tampa Bay. Vegas has the Bucs\u2019 implied total at 18.75, which is the third-lowest on the slate. I still don\u2019t trust this Packers defense enough to rank them higher, but I can\u2019t put them too much lower either.<\/p>\n
I don\u2019t love the Rams here, but the Eagles did not look good on Monday Night Football. So far this season, the Rams are first in passes defended (4.33) and aren\u2019t allowing many big plays, which is helping them overcome the loss of Myles Garrett. However, they also blew a huge lead to the Broncos on Sunday Night Football, and I just don\u2019t have much confidence in playing the Rams in a tough spot. <\/p>\n
The Cardinals are second in passes defended and are top five in third-down conversion rate, but are otherwise fairly average on defense. The only reason they are here is that Jameis Winston is starting at quarterback for the Giants and Malik Nabers doesn\u2019t seem to be 100% right now. <\/p>\n
The Falcons are first in pressure rate and top-10 in third-down conversion rate and 1st Downs allowed per game. Still, A.J. Terrell is on the IR, James Pearce is suspended, and I don\u2019t love this defense overall. Their Week 3 win was impressive but sits next to two rough weeks. I have them here because I expect New Orleans to be without RB Travis Etienne and potentially offensive tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. Those are injuries we need to keep an eye on. <\/p>\n
RankTier Four DSTsOpponent18Philadelphia Eaglesvs LAR19Houston Texansvs DAL20Las Vegas Raidersvs KC21Cincinnati Bengalsat JAX22Los Angeles Chargersat SEA23Denver Broncosat SF24New York Giantsat ARI25New Orleans Saintsvs ATL<\/p>\n
Defenses ranked this low may be intriguing, but I can\u2019t consider playing them outside of the deepest formats.<\/p>\n
The Eagles and Texans are defenses we generally like but have not had great starts so far. The Eagles don\u2019t have a single takeaway, and the Texans are only top 10 in first downs allowed per game. Add bad matchups to that, and it\u2019s hard to get overly excited about either defense this week.<\/p>\n
People want to play the Colts because they are facing the Commanders, but did we just see what Marcus Mariota did to the Seahawks? He\u2019s a solid NFL starting quarterback, and this Colts defense does not look good. This is not a gamble I want to take. <\/p>\n
The Giants weren\u2019t getting much pressure to begin with this season, and I can\u2019t see that getting better with Brian Burns now out for the season. <\/p>\n
I guess the consensus still wants to pick on this Falcons offense, but not me. In Week 3, with Michael Penix back under center, the Falcons scored 35 points and gained 500 yards of offense against the Packers. They turned the ball over one time and didn\u2019t allow any sacks. I know the Packers defense isn\u2019t great, but I\u2019m not sure the Saints are so much better. They\u2019re 25th in points per game, 25th in third-down conversion rate, 26th in turnover rate, and 28th in pressure rate. I know it\u2019s only been three games, but that\u2019s not a profile that fills me with a ton of confidence against a Falcons offense that looked far more explosive with Michael Penix under center. I\u2019m going to be fading the Saints this weekend.<\/p>\n
RankTier Five DSTsOpponent26New England Patriotsat BUF27Las Vegas Raidersvs KC28Washington Commandersvs IND29Tennessee Titansat BAL30Carolina Panthersvs DET31Miami Dolphinsat MIN32Dallas Cowboysat HOU<\/p>\n
As always, I can\u2019t recommend playing any defense that you see here in Tier 5.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"It was a bad week for fantasy defenses if you were trying to attack bad or backup quarterbacks.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":910170,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[559],"tags":[64,63,593,85],"class_list":["post-910169","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nfl","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-nfl","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/910169","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=910169"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/910169\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910170"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=910169"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=910169"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=910169"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}