{"id":912245,"date":"2026-10-01T12:48:18","date_gmt":"2026-10-01T12:48:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/912245\/"},"modified":"2026-10-01T12:48:18","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T12:48:18","slug":"nfl-week-4-picks-our-experts-face-off-on-steelers-at-browns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/912245\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Week 4 picks: Our experts face off on Steelers at Browns"},"content":{"rendered":"

Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season has plenty of storylines to watch.\u00a0Derrick Henry<\/a>\u00a0is looking to run wild against his former team in the\u00a0Tennessee Titans;<\/a>\u00a0the\u00a0Indianapolis Colts<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Washington Commanders<\/a>\u00a0battle from London; and\u00a0Matthew Stafford<\/a>\u00a0and the\u00a0Los Angeles Rams<\/a>\u00a0look to get back on track vs. the\u00a0Philadelphia Eagles<\/a>.<\/p>\n

This season has been pretty unpredictable so far. Four teams enter Week 4 tied for the best record in their division after last-place finishes in 2025: The Las Vegas Raiders<\/a>, Cleveland Browns<\/a>, New York Giants<\/a> and the New Orleans Saints<\/a>. Which one of these teams could be a legitimate sleeper? And when could we see J.J. McCarthy<\/a> take over at quarterback in New York?\u00a0<\/p>\n

Below, CBS Sports writers Jordan Dajani and Jared Dubin break down the biggest games of the weekend. For clarity, lines for these selections were taken on Sept. 29 over at DraftKings<\/a> Sportsbook.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Advanced data courtesy of CBS Sports Research<\/p>\n

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns (TNF)<\/p>\n

Dajani (Steelers<\/a> -2.5):\u00a0Ready for a crazy stat? The Steelers have lost seven straight road games against the Browns when not starting Ben Roethlisberger<\/a>\u00a0at quarterback. The last non-Roethlisberger Steelers quarterback to win in Cleveland was Tommy Maddox in 2003! Maybe it takes a Hall of Famer like Aaron Rodgers<\/a> to break that streak, even if he lost to Shedeur Sanders<\/a> in Cleveland last year.<\/p>\n

The Steelers are Jekyll and Hyde to me. They registered one of the worst offensive performances I’ve ever seen in Week 2, only to drop 30 points and 411(!) total yards on the Cincinnati Bengals<\/a>\u00a0in Week 3! So, which Steelers team are we going to see on Thursday? I’m not 100% sure, but I will say that the Browns’ 2-1 start is overrated. This offense ranks bottom five in yards per game (266.0), third down percentage (30.6%) and red zone TD percentage (37.5%) this season, and probably should have blown out the Carolina Panthers<\/a>\u00a0last Sunday \u2026 \u00a0Prediction:\u00a0Steelers 21, Browns 17<\/p>\n

Dubin (Steelers -2.5):\u00a0The Browns have won each of their last two games with late scores. However, they have been out-gained in each game this season and have yet to record more than 17 first downs in a given game. I don’t have any confidence that their offense can consistently move the ball against Pittsburgh’s defense. I don’t have much more confidence in Pittsburgh’s offense, which did nothing in its first two games before exploding against the Bengals this past week, but I do have somewhat more confidence in it than in Cleveland’s. \u00a0\u2026\u00a0Prediction:\u00a0Steelers 20, Browns 14<\/p>\n

Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) vs. Washington Commanders (London)<\/p>\n

Dajani (Colts -3.5):\u00a0I think this matchup is about which defense stinks less. The Colts rank worst in total defense (417.3) and third-worst in scoring defense (30.3). The Commanders rank second-worst in scoring defense (30.7) and have allowed the highest opponent passer rating (124.4) and most passing touchdowns (11) this year. Marcus Mariota<\/a> has definitely brought some magic to the lineup, as evidenced by last week’s upset of the Seattle Seahawks<\/a>, but I would argue the Colts are the better team.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Do you remember the last time the Colts played overseas? They defeated the Atlanta Falcons<\/a> in overtime thanks to a ridiculous performance from Jonathan Taylor<\/a>. The star running back rushed 32 times for 244 yards and three touchdowns, while also adding 42 yards as a receiver. He’s already up to 325 total yards and four touchdowns through three weeks. I expect him to show out on Sunday for our friends across the pond.\u00a0 \u2026 \u00a0Prediction:\u00a0Colts 27, Commanders 21<\/p>\n

Dubin (Commanders +3.5):\u00a0Marcus Mariota is a competent enough backup quarterback to keep this game close. He just went and beat the Seahawks, after all, and the Colts have a much friendlier defense. He should be able to keep the chains moving. I’m just not sure that’ll be enough for the Commanders to actually win the game this time around. I think this is a big Jonathan Taylor game, even if Washington has been good on the ground so far and allowed just 44 rushing yards last week against Seattle. Plus. Washington’s pass defense should give Daniel Jones<\/a> and Co. a chance for their best game to date. \u2026\u00a0Prediction:\u00a0Colts 23, Commanders 20<\/p>\n

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)<\/p>\n

Dajani (Bengals -2.5):\u00a0The Jacksonville Jaguars<\/a> have been red-hot and just defeated the New England Patriots<\/a> by a whopping 29 points. As for the Bengals, they just lost to Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers in a thrilling game. We thought the Cincy defense was reborn, only for Rodgers and Co. to drop 30 points on them. This is going to be a popular “upset” pick this week, but I’m actually going to take the Bengals. They are back at home after two road games and have covered the spread in six straight non-divisional contests. This Jaguars team isn’t perfect, and you saw some issues during their Week 2 loss to the Denver Broncos<\/a>. The offensive line could struggle with Dexter Lawrence<\/a> and Jonathan Allen<\/a>, while this secondary will have their hands full with Ja’Marr Chase<\/a> and Tee Higgins<\/a>. Don’t overlook the fact that Joe Burrow<\/a> is 3-0 vs. Trevor Lawrence<\/a> dating back to the 2019 College Football<\/a> Playoff Title game. \u2026 \u00a0Prediction:\u00a0Bengals 24, Jaguars 20<\/p>\n

Dubin (Jaguars +2.5):\u00a0I hate to be the guy that takes what Dajani described as the popular upset pick right after he called people out for it, but I’m going to do just that. The Jaguars should be 3-0 right now, but they fell apart in the second half against the Broncos in Week 2. The offense is firing on all cylinders. The defense has forced six turnovers in three games. Cincinnati’s defensive improvement looked like a mirage in Week 3 against the Steelers and may have just been a function of playing dysfunctional offenses in the Buccaneers<\/a> and the Nico Collins-less Texans<\/a>. I think Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins can put up some points here, but I like the Jags to score even more.\u00a0 \u2026\u00a0Prediction:\u00a0Jaguars 30, Bengals 27<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles<\/p>\n

Dajani (Rams -3):\u00a0The Eagles’ loss to the Chicago Bears<\/a> may stay with me forever. We had a 38-year-old quarterback dicing up a Super Bowl-caliber defense, as Ben Johnson<\/a> put Vic Fangio in a proverbial chokehold on national television. Then, we had a former Super Bowl<\/a> MVP quarterback looking completely lost. All that to say, how am I supposed to back Philly in this spot against an angry team that just lost in primetime?<\/p>\n

If we are being honest with ourselves, the Eagles haven’t looked very good at all this year. They were hardly dominant in the Week 1 victory over the Commanders or Week 2 win against the Titans. Philly is the only team that hasn’t scored in the first quarter this season, and the defense is still waiting to force that first takeaway. The Eagles haven’t even covered the spread this season, so I’ll take the visiting Rams to get back on track.\u00a0 \u2026 \u00a0Prediction:\u00a0Rams 26, Eagles 20<\/p>\n

Dubin (Rams -3):\u00a0The Rams have looked like the Rams we expected for six quarters this season, and very much like a different team for the other six quarters. Meanwhile, the Eagles have looked exactly like the Eagles we expected for eight quarters and like a disaster for four. How does that all net out? I think it nets out with Matthew Stafford having some success through the air against a somewhat surprisingly friendly Eagles pass defense that isn’t getting as much pressure as you’d expect, and with Jalen Hurts<\/a> and Co. continuing their stilted start to the season.\u00a0 \u2026\u00a0Prediction:\u00a0Rams 24, Eagles 20<\/p>\n

Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (-2.5)<\/p>\n

Dajani (Texans -2.5):\u00a0I’ve given the Texans the benefit of the doubt for an entire month with nothing to show for it. I can no longer wait for C.J. Stroud<\/a> to get the offense off the ground or for the defense to become good again. With that said, there is one big reason why the Texans will get their first win this season, and that’s Nico Collins<\/a>. He’s missed the past two games with a hamstring injury, but should return this week to face one of the worst defenses in the NFL. C.J. Stroud averages 10.7 yards per attempt when targeting Collins. That number drops to 7.7 when he targets any other receiver. In the one game Collins played in this season, he caught seven passes for 75 yards and a touchdown while Houston came one play away from defeating the Buffalo Bills<\/a> \u2026 \u00a0Prediction:\u00a0Texans 30, Cowboys<\/a> 26<\/p>\n

Dubin (Texans -2.5):\u00a0The Cowboys need their offense to be perfect in order to win games. Their defense once again seems like it’s that bad, and it is also hemorrhaging players at linebacker and in the secondary. Offenses, generally, cannot be perfect against the Texans’ defense. Houston should also be getting Nico Collins back here, so I think the Texans can actually move the ball for a change. \u2026\u00a0Prediction: Texans 24, Cowboys 21<\/p>\n

Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers (-3)<\/p>\n

Dajani (Broncos +3):\u00a0Maybe I’m the Broncos expert? When Denver was down 16-0 to the Rams last Sunday night, I was telling everyone not to go to bed because the game was not over. Sure enough, the Broncos bucked back. Denver has the most comeback wins (14), second-half comebacks (11), fourth-quarter comebacks (7) and 14-point comebacks (3) over the past two seasons.<\/p>\n

I’m leaning toward the Broncos again in this spot because of the San Francisco 49ers<\/a>‘ injuries. Nick Bosa<\/a> is going to miss some time with knee\/calf issues, wide receiver Mike Evans<\/a> injured his rib, linebacker Dre Greenlaw<\/a> sat out of practice Wednesday with a quad injury and we’ll see what the status of left tackle Trent Williams<\/a> is later in the week. Denver is 5-1 straight up in its last six games as an underdog, and Bo Nix<\/a> is 10-0 in his past 10 games vs. NFC opponents.\u00a0 \u2026 \u00a0Prediction:\u00a0Broncos 24, 49ers 23<\/p>\n

Dubin (49ers -3):\u00a0San Francisco is merrily rolling right along with the best offense in the NFL through the first three weeks despite pass-catchers dropping like flies. Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy<\/a> are just that good, I suppose. The Broncos have looked either terrible or amazing so far this year, and I just don’t think that type of thing is enough to hang with the 49ers in their current form.\u00a0 \u2026\u00a0Prediction:\u00a049ers 24, Broncos 16<\/p>\n

Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers (SNF)<\/p>\n

Dajani (Lions<\/a> -3.5):\u00a0I’m a bit partial to the Lions despite their horrific defense. We got the cover last week vs. the New York Jets<\/a>, but it was quite a sweat. I’m taking the Lions this week because of the Panthers’ injury situation. They will not have their two starting cornerbacks on the field in Jaycee Horn<\/a> or Mike Jackson<\/a>. Keep in mind this Panthers defense is already statistically one of the worst in the NFL and had 552 total yards and 59 points dropped on them in their last home game. The Lions are simply going to outscore the Panthers in primetime, and I think we could be looking at a blowout. The Lions are 11-0 SU and 9-1-1 ATS in primetime games as favorites under Dan Campbell. Get ready for some points. \u00a0 \u2026 \u00a0Prediction:\u00a0Lions 35, Panthers 21<\/p>\n

Dubin (Lions -3.5):\u00a0Lions games have turned into track meets so far this season, with Detroit scoring at least 30 points in every game. With the Panthers likely down their top two cornerbacks, this week is set up for them to go off yet again. We might even see Jameson Williams<\/a> really pop off for the first time this year. And we know both Jahmyr Gibbs<\/a> and Amon-Ra St. Brown<\/a> will be productive. Bryce Young<\/a> is leading the NFL in passing yards, but he might not have Jalen Coker<\/a> here, so the Panthers might not have quite enough to compete here, even given how bad the Lions’ defense is.\u00a0 \u2026\u00a0Prediction:\u00a0Lions 34, Panthers 24<\/p>\n

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-3) (MNF)<\/p>\n

Dajani (Saints -3):\u00a0I would rather have the moneyline here, but I’ll ride with the Saints. After all, this is the 20th anniversary of the team’s return to the Superdome following Hurricane Katrina. I can’t even begin to imagine what the stadium is going to feel like Monday night. The Falcons registered that incredible victory against the Green Bay Packers<\/a> last Thursday, but I almost think that game showed us more about the Packers than it did the Falcons. Atlanta is clearly better with Michael Penix Jr<\/a>. under center, but it would be tragic if the Saints lost this game given the celebration.\u00a0 \u2026 \u00a0Prediction:\u00a0Saints 28, Falcons 20<\/p>\n

Dubin (Push):\u00a0The Falcons looked much improved last week against the Packers, thanks in large part to the return of Michael Penix Jr. They hadn’t even entered the red zone through the first two weeks of the season, then dropped 35 points on the Packers in Week 2. The Saints, meanwhile, could conceivably be 3-0 right now if not for backbreaking turnovers. They have two one-possession losses, both in games where they turned it over at least three times. If they can avoid giving the ball to the Falcons, I think they can win a close one here.\u00a0 \u2026\u00a0Prediction:\u00a0Saints 23, Falcons 20<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season has plenty of storylines to watch.\u00a0Derrick Henry\u00a0is looking to run wild…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":912246,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[559],"tags":[626,28651,1276,64,63,22816,85190,17469,6583,5351,1261,5377,1257,1248,1252,1238,1234,1277,1256,28654,3055,75223,55397,26369,1243,1255,1246,1282,19356,1237,28657,53910,6579,28650,138558,629,17461,5364,1250,1263,3367,6588,5346,21176,126699,1231,1249,1242,1235,593,36526,28652,1260,1241,1262,1254,1244,85,1247,627,1253,31952,6578,1272],"class_list":["post-912245","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nfl","tag-aaron-rodgers","tag-amon-ra-st-brown","tag-atlanta-falcons","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-ben-johnson","tag-ben-roethlisberger","tag-bo-nix","tag-brock-purdy","tag-bryce-young","tag-buffalo-bills","tag-c-j-stroud","tag-carolina-panthers","tag-chicago-bears","tag-cincinnati-bengals","tag-cleveland-browns","tag-dallas-cowboys","tag-daniel-jones","tag-denver-broncos","tag-derrick-henry","tag-detroit-lions","tag-devin-lloyd","tag-dexter-lawrence","tag-dre-greenlaw","tag-green-bay-packers","tag-houston-texans","tag-indianapolis-colts","tag-j-j-mccarthy","tag-jamarr-chase","tag-jacksonville-jaguars","tag-jahmyr-gibbs","tag-jalen-coker","tag-jalen-hurts","tag-jameson-williams","tag-jaycee-horn","tag-joe-burrow","tag-jonathan-allen","tag-jonathan-taylor","tag-las-vegas-raiders","tag-los-angeles-rams","tag-marcus-mariota","tag-matthew-stafford","tag-michael-penix-jr","tag-mike-evans","tag-mike-jackson","tag-new-england-patriots","tag-new-orleans-saints","tag-new-york-giants","tag-new-york-jets","tag-nfl","tag-nick-bosa","tag-nico-collins","tag-philadelphia-eagles","tag-pittsburgh-steelers","tag-san-francisco-49ers","tag-seattle-seahawks","tag-shedeur-sanders","tag-sports","tag-tampa-bay-buccaneers","tag-tee-higgins","tag-tennessee-titans","tag-trent-williams","tag-trevor-lawrence","tag-washington-commanders"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/912245","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=912245"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/912245\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/912246"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=912245"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=912245"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=912245"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}