{"id":912969,"date":"2026-10-02T03:00:15","date_gmt":"2026-10-02T03:00:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/912969\/"},"modified":"2026-10-02T03:00:15","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T03:00:15","slug":"mlb-predictions-revisiting-giants-preseason-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/912969\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB predictions: Revisiting Giants preseason predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">On March 25, 2026, the San Francisco Giants began what would quickly prove to be the worst season in franchise history. You don\u2019t need me to explain all the things that went wrong, but don\u2019t worry: it\u2019s a long and cold offseason, so I will in due time.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">A few hours before that horrific journey got underway, I published an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mccoveychronicles.com\/san-francisco-giants-analysis\/104217\/giants-predictions-2026-season-logan-webb-heliot-ramos\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">article with 26 predictions for the \u201826 season<\/a>. Now, more than six months later, I can say with confidence what so many of you have uttered to me in the comment sections of articles over the years: you should not listen to a damn word that comes out of my mouth.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">The smartest thing I said in the 5,000 blabbering words came before I even got to the predictions. I stated in the intro that the bulk of the predictions were optimistic, justifying it as such: \u201cBecause if you\u2019re a Giants fan who doesn\u2019t have optimism on March 25, when will you have it?\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">If only I knew just how true that question would be. Tucked at the start of an article where I look as capable of intelligence as Sam Hentges looks capable of accepting the queer community, I accidentally dropped the smartest sentence I\u2019ve ever written. Go figure.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">I thought I should revisit those 26 predictions. Publicly reflecting on past predictions is not something I often dabble in, because 10% of the time it looks braggadocios and 90% of the time I\u2019m just admitting to being bad at my job, which my bosses have informed me I should stop doing. But in a season where the bad news rained down from the ownership suites to the front office to the coaching staff to the players to the broadcast booth, it seemed only fair that I get in on the action.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">So here are my 26 predictions, starting with the one I got the most wrong, and ending with the one I got the most right (yes, there were a few accurate predictions).<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Feel free to tell me how dumb I am in the comments. Just don\u2019t expect me to learn from it.<\/p>\n<p>Tier 6: Seriously, why do you ever listen to me?<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">These are the predictions that are so wrong they defy explanation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">For years, my sister and I have had an idea wherein I let her write a game recap for me. To paint a picture of my sister\u2019s understanding of sports: once she texted me from a bar bathroom saying she was being hit on by a college football coach, and wanted to know if there was any intelligent talking point she could bring up. I told her to mention the new rule wherein if the shortstop runs backwards into the goal you get extra points. I figured this was such a ludicrous joke that she would know immediately that I was teasing her. She called me an hour later to berate me for embarrassing her in front of an attractive man. This is a true story.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Anyway, we\u2019ve both long thought it would be funny if she wrote a recap for me, on account of her knowing absolutely nothing about sports. It would be entertaining and, no doubt, stupid. The following predictions are so bad, that I had to stop and think about if I let her moonlight for me in this article. Sadly, she did not.<\/p>\n<p>26. The Giants finish second in the NL West and make the postseason<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">I\u2019m gonna go make a cup of tea. You can have these 10 minutes to guffaw audibly.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Okay, I\u2019m back. Still laughing? Damn. I deserve that. I\u2019m laughing too, honestly.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">The Giants, of course, missed the playoffs. Not only did they miss the playoffs, but they missed the playoffs by 23 games. Worse yet, they missed out on second place in the NL West by 26 games. There were only four teams in the Majors \u2014 including the Giants \u2014 that were 26 games behind first place, and the Giants were 26 games behind second place, in a division where second place was the second-furthest away from first place.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">In other words, this prediction really could not have been more wrong. Let\u2019s move on.<\/p>\n<p>25. Gregory Santos will be their best reliever<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">My stubbornness really showed itself with this prediction. I was adamant that the Giants signing Santos \u2014 once one of their top prospects \u2014 to a Minor League deal was one of the best moves of the offseason. I held that stance even when he struggled in Spring Training and even when he started the year in the Minors and even when he struggled in the Minors, and even when he was called up and almost immediately optioned.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">And then he was designated for assignment with no corresponding move. Just removed from the 40-man roster because the Giants would rather have 39 players than employ Santos. Not only that, but he didn\u2019t even get to make me look smart, because no one else picked him up.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Santos ended the year with five innings pitched, one strikeout, a 3.60 ERA, a 4.50 FIP, and 0.0 fWAR. Which, in fairness, did make him one of the team\u2019s best relievers.<\/p>\n<p>24. Bryce Eldridge has a distinctly mediocre season<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Before you all call me a hater, I contextualized this as a mostly good thing. I ended my blurb on Eldridge by saying, \u201cHe\u2019ll see pitches and gameplans that he\u2019s never been exposed to before. He\u2019ll struggle to tread water. And if he holds his own, just at an average level, that will be a sign of how good he is, not how bad he is.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">I stand by that. If Eldridge had posted a league-average wRC+ of 100, I would have been very encouraged and optimistic about who he would be in 2027.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Instead, Eldridge looked more than comfortable. He looked like a veteran in the batter\u2019s box, controlling at-bats, controlling the zone, outsmarting pitchers, drawing walks, and hitting for both average and power. His 131 wRC+ ranked 25th out of 205 Major League hitters (minimum: 400 plate appearances), directly ahead of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Kyle Schwarber.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">If I was going to be wrong about a prediction, this was the one. So at least there\u2019s that.<\/p>\n<p>23. Willy Adames and Rafael Devers start the season hot<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">There was a lot of fear-mongering surrounding Adames and Devers going into the season. Adames has a history of slow starts, got off to a brutal opening to his Giants tenure in 2025, and was having a rough Spring Training. Devers had been fairly awful in his first month with the Giants, and looked lost in Scottsdale.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">I thought nothing of it. Spring Training means so little, and I figured these two established sluggers would hit the ground running when the season began.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Instead, when April came to a close, Adames was hitting .197\/.240\/.352 and Devers .207\/.248\/.289. And the season was essentially over.<\/p>\n<p>22. Luis Matos has a big year \u2026 somewhere<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">I wrote this shortly after the Giants designated Matos for assignment. My thought was that a bad team would claim him and give him some run. I recognized there was little reason for optimism, admitting that, \u201cThis is not rooted in anything analytical: it\u2019s really hard to look at Matos\u2019 stats and underlying metrics and find a reason for optimism. Instead, it\u2019s just a vibes and hope-based bold prediction, that the Matos who has shown flashes over the years finally puts it all together.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Well friends, I regret to inform you that he did not. Matos was not claimed by a bad team that would give him some steady run, but instead by the playoff-bound Milwaukee Brewers, who gave him all of 21 plate appearance before designating him for assignment. This time he wasn\u2019t claimed, and he was outrighted to Milwaukee\u2019s AAA affiliate, where he posted a measly 77 wRC+ across the year.<\/p>\n<p>Tier 5: No one ever accused me of being smart<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">These predictions are wrong. Incorrect. Inaccurate. Just plum not right.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">But they\u2019re not as brain-meltingly idiotic as the last batch was. Those first five are enough to bar me for life from applying to the BBWAA. These ones are just wrong, but less embarrassing.<\/p>\n<p>21. Logan Webb throws multiple complete game shutouts<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">In hindsight, this was even bolder than I imagined. Webb entered the season having thrown just two complete game shutouts in his career, and I thought he\u2019d get to that mark multiple times this season alone. Not only did Webb not have multiple complete game shutouts, but no player in the Majors threw multiple complete games, period. Forget the shutout. No one even went nine innings on more than one occasion.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Webb did throw one complete game, but, hilariously, it was a loss in which he only had to pitch eight innings.<\/p>\n<p>20. We get more bullpen heat<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">As I mentioned, I wrote the initial predictions article on Opening Day, which meant the Giants had already informed me of some of their thinking for the year. They had released the Opening Day roster, and I was pleasantly surprised to see that both Keaton Winn and Caleb Kilian had made the cut. With Joel Peguero rehabbing an injury and Santos tuning up in AAA, I thought this was the year that we see some modern gas from the Giants bullpen.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Instead, they traded Kilian and Erik Miller. They broke Winn by pitching him three games in a row, an atrocity from which he never recovered. Peguero made it through just 11.1 innings before suffering a season-ending injury. Santos never panned out. The closest heat in the Minors, Will Bednar, saw his velocity take a tumble as he was demoted down to AA. Blade Tidwell was used primarily as a starter.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">And as such, only the late-late reunion with Camilo Doval left the Giants with any notable heat coming out of the bullpen at the end of the season.<\/p>\n<p>19. Tony Vitello doesn\u2019t get thrown out early on<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Before the season began, there was a common thought that Vitello would be quick to get ejected, given the energy and fire that he brings to managing. I thought it would be the opposite: that Vitello would be so conscious of wanting to be in the fight with his players that he would view an ejection as an abandoment.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">I\u2019m still not sure I\u2019m wrong, given the quotes he\u2019s had after his ejections. But even if he views it that way, his actions suggest otherwise. Vitello was thrown out in just the 10th game of the season, and led the Majors with seven ejections on the year.<\/p>\n<p>18. They have five 20-homer hitters<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">This one ended up looking tremendously dumb, as the Giants fifth-best home run hitter this year was Drew Gilbert, who had just 11 blasts. They had only six players clear the double-digit mark, and I thought five would get to 20?!?<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">You can see the vision. Devers and Adames were locks. Matt Chapman and Heliot Ramos were likely to get there with full, healthy seasons. All it would take was one player popping, be it a leap for Casey Schmitt or Jerar Encarnaci\u00f3n, or an early promotion for Eldridge.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">As it was, just three players hit the 20-homer barrier, and only just, as Adames and Schmitt both had 21.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Can you blame a boy for hoping?<\/p>\n<p>16. Someone plays 160 games<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">This one was trending towards accuracy. Only an out-of-the-blue Devers injury reveal kept him from getting to the mark for the second straight season. As such, he ended up 12 games shy of 160, and this prediction ended up looking dumb. The Giants only had six players who appeared in 100 games, which is pretty jarring.<\/p>\n<p>Tier 4: Wrong, but not idiotically so<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">I had to make a new tier just to hide how many of these I got wrong. The incorrect predictions take us all the way into the top 10, so I\u2019m hedging on the predictions where yes, I was wrong, but by a slim enough margin that I don\u2019t look foolish. In a few instances, I\u2019m even technically right, but spiritually wrong. It\u2019s a purgatory of sorts.<\/p>\n<p>15. Heliot Ramos rebounds in the right ways<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">I\u2019ve always been a fan of Ramos, and I\u2019ve always been a believer. One of the things about Ramos\u2019 game that has inspired confidence from me has been his ability to make offseason adjustments.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">When he was struggling to make an impact in the Majors, while going outside the zone and hitting balls straight into the dirt, he spent an offseason controlling the zone and lifting the ball. When he broke out as an All-Star on the back of hitting lefties at a historical pace, but struggling against righties, he spent the winter learning how to hit right-handers. And when he came back last year with a renewed ability to hit righties, it was accompanied by a huge step back in his slash line against southpaws, and an even larger step back in his defense.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">So I thought this year he would address those things, and improve his defense while getting back to his lefty-mashing ways. And by the letter of the law, I think this prediction was right. He raised his Fielding Run Value from second percentile all the way to \u2026 third percentile. Although honestly even that is overselling it, since it\u2019s probably just due to less playing time this year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Ramos did rebound against southpaws, as he hit posted a 150 wRC+ against lefties. But the performance against same-handed pitchers suffered, and ultimately Ramos was not only a much worse player this year than last year, but he was also traded.<\/p>\n<p>14. ABS has no impact on Patrick Bailey\u2019s defense<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">ABS definitely impacted Bailey\u2019s defense. After three consecutive seasons of being 100th percentile in both framing and fielding run value, Bailey dipped to 79th and 84th percentile, respectively. I don\u2019t think the new technology hurt the Gold Glover as much as many people feared, and it seems there were other things going on that led to his defensive decline. But ABS certainly had some negative impact.<\/p>\n<p>13. They have three All-Stars<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">The Giants had two All-Stars, which I guess makes this prediction 66.7% right. Or maybe it only makes it 50% right, since each team is guaranteed at least one All-Star. Luis Arr\u00e1ez was a lock for the team, and Webb made it even though he probably didn\u2019t deserve it.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">You can envision a world where they had three All-Stars, though. If Robbie Ray\u2019s heater started a few weeks earlier he could have wiggled his way on. Schmitt and Jung Hoo Lee certainly warranted some consideration, and if Devers had played his season in reverse he would have easily made the team.<\/p>\n<p>12. Rafael Devers is a Gold Glove finalist<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">MLB hasn\u2019t announced the Gold Glove finalists yet, so technically this one isn\u2019t wrong yet. But given that Devers didn\u2019t grade out very well by any defensive metric, we can put this one in the \u201cwrong\u201d bin.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Still, I think in spirit this prediction had some accuracy to it. Devers had some bad moments, but he also had some excellent moments at first base, and looked like he could hold down the position for years to come (though it still remains to be seen how the Giants will handle time at first with both Devers and Eldridge). Perhaps I\u2019m just desperate to find something to paint in a positive light, but I was impressed by Devers\u2019 defense this season.<\/p>\n<p>11. They figure out second base<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">On the surface, this one is very, very, very wrong. The Giants traded away their All-Star second baseman, and ended the year by cycling through a combination of five backups who risk being DFA\u2019d this offseason, while mixing in a center fielder here and there.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">And yet, no one expects the Giants to pursue a second baseman this offseason, because it does feel like they have all the options they need. Whether it will be Schmitt, Marcelo Mayer, or a rotating cast that includes Jonah Cox remains to be seen. The Giants are a long ways away from figuring out second base, but they surely think they have the answer. Now they just need to figure out what it is.<\/p>\n<p>Tier 3: I\u2019m right \u2026 kind of<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">This small tier has the predictions that I\u2019m not really sure about. They\u2019re kind of right, but they\u2019re kind of wrong. We can debate them \u2026 hypothetically speaking, of course. Hopefully we all have better things to do than actually debate these.<\/p>\n<p>10. They swing another big deadline deal<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">This one is technically correct, but I\u2019m not sure it\u2019s accurate in spirit. The Giants made a number of big deals at the deadline, to make nothing of the Bailey trade in May.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Here\u2019s how I described the prediction: \u201cI don\u2019t expect the Giants to redo the Devers trade this summer, and take Bryce Harper or Fernando Tatis Jr. off someone\u2019s hands, though I\u2019d love to see that. But I still think they make a big trade. Likely that means giving up a few of their best prospects for a young, cost-controlled talent, but if they struggle in the standings, it could mean parting ways with some of their MLB-level players, and really re-upping the farm.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">If you squint they did the latter, but I don\u2019t think the trades they made quite qualify. Ramos, Kilian, and Miller were the only players under contract in 2027 that they traded and, especially with the season Ramos was having, none of those names are particularly notable. I think to call this prediction accurate, the Giants needed to have traded one of their core players, or one of their core prospects, and Bailey was too early to be a deadline deal. We\u2019re dealing with semantics here.<\/p>\n<p>9. Daniel Susac survives the year, but\u2026<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">I labeled this one as a double prediction: \u201cI think Susac survives the year and plays well, but [Jes\u00fas] Rodr\u00edguez also becomes a huge part of the team at some point, be it as a second baseman, a third catcher, a fourth outfielder, or a super-utility player. There\u2019s room at the table for both of them.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Susac didn\u2019t really survive the year in the literal sense, given that he suffered a season-ending injury, but he survived the year in the baseball sense, in that he was not returned to the Athletics as a Rule 5 rejectee. And he even enters the offseason as the team\u2019s starting catcher, though truthfully, I\u2019m not entirely ready to declare that he played well.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Rodr\u00edguez, however, did not establish himself this year, in part because of his own injury. It\u2019s a little bit hard to parse this prediction because I was assuming that Bailey would still be the franchise catcher, and Susac and Rodr\u00edguez would be battling for a backup role.<\/p>\n<p>8. Adrian Houser is replaced<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Houser was, indeed, replaced. In mid-June he was moved from the rotation to the bullpen. But, amid a slew of trades and injuries, he kind of returned to the rotation late in the year. In his fourth-to-last game of the season, he pitched five innings, but the Giants used an opener. In his third-to-last game of the season, he started and pitched six innings. In his second-to-last game of the season, he entered in the third inning and pitched five innings. And in his final game of the season, he started before leaving early with an injury.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">So this one is kind of a shrug.<\/p>\n<p>Tier 2: I\u2019m right, but you\u2019re not impressed<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">I only got seven of my 26 predictions right. That\u2019s a pretty nice batting average though, so I can\u2019t be too upset.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Still, it\u2019s pretty easy to get predictions right if that\u2019s your main goal. All you have to do is hug the trunk of the prediction tree, and never step out onto any limbs. Rafael Devers will hit a home run and Logan Webb won\u2019t get traded and The federal government will intervene with the Giants over inclusive hats were all obvious things. I could have included them in my predictions post and upped my winning percentage.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Instead, I tried to at least be a tiny bit bold. But in a few cases, I took the easy way out. These are the correct predictions that probably elicit a \u201cwell, duh\u201d from you.<\/p>\n<p>7. There are more Tommy John surgeries coming down the line<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">This was my lone prediction that was unequivocally negative. And it brings me no joy that I was correct. It seemed that the Giants unparalleled luck with avoiding Tommy John surgeries couldn\u2019t last forever, and when Hayden Birdsong kicked off the spring by needing TJ, I assumed it was just the first domino falling \u2026 or the second one, if you want to go back to Randy Rodr\u00edguez late last year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">It took awhile for the other dominoes to fall, but fall the most certainly did. First Trevor McDonald, and then Carson Whisenhunt, and finally Tidwell. You could see it coming a mile away, but it doesn\u2019t make it any more enjoyable.<\/p>\n<p>6. Kyle Harrison dominates them<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">For a while this year, it started to look like the Harrison-for-Devers trade was backfiring in a big way. Devers spent the start of the season looking like he forgot how to hit baseballs, while Harrison made a very strong bid for the All-Star game.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Their trajectories reversed as the season went on, with Devers being the third-best hitter in all of baseball from the start of May until the end of the season, while Harrison fell apart down the stretch (after his first August start, Harrison had a 2.84 ERA and a 2.91 FIP; he ended the season with a 4.20 ERA and a 4.03 FIP).<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">But along the way, the most predictable thing happened: Harrison dominated the team he grew up rooting for, and was drafted and developed by.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">On June 2, the Brewers hosted the Giants. Harrison took the mound sporting a 6-1 record and a 1.57 ERA. He only pitched 5.2 innings in the game, but still struck out 12 batters, while allowing just six baserunners and one run. And you weren\u2019t even mad.<\/p>\n<p>5. The rotation looks worse entering the offseason than last year<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">This wasn\u2019t exactly a bold prediction either, what with Ray and Tyler Mahle both set for free agency, even if the Giants hadn\u2019t traded them. The hope was that some of the youngsters would become reliable enough options that San Francisco would have the bones of a solid rotation entering the offseason, but sadly that didn\u2019t happen. Not only that, but Webb took quite a step backwards, while Landen Roupp struggled following a strong start to the year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Last winter, the Giants entered the offseason with a rotation that had question marks. This winter, they enter it with a rotation in shambles.<\/p>\n<p>4. The bullpen will look dramatically different at the end of the year<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">This was an obvious one, for two reasons: three key bullpen contributors (Jason Foley, Sam Hentges, and Joel Peguero) all began the year on the Injured List, and bullpens always have a lot of turnover.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">But they don\u2019t always have this much turnover. As evidence, I present a blurb from this original prediction: \u201cI think the eight arms in the \u2018pen for Game No. 162 will have more than 50% turnover from the octet that will be behind the outfield wall at Oracle Park tonight.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">I said that forgetting that the team gets an extra arm because of the September rules, and I still dramatically undersold it.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Of the eight bullpen arms the Giants started the year with, four ended the year injured (Winn, Brubaker, Jos\u00e9 Butt\u00f3, and Matt Gage); two were traded (Miller and Killian); one was released (Ryan Borucki), and one was in AAA (Ryan Walker). Exactly zero of the Opening Day relievers were available to pitch in the final series of the year.<\/p>\n<p>Tier 1: Even a broken Brady is right three times a year<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">We\u2019re left with just three predictions. Three out of 26 that make me actually look like I potentially know a thing or two.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">And you know what? I\u2019ll take it.<\/p>\n<p>3. They have a top-five farm by the end of the year<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">This was one of the predictions I most wanted to get correct. And admittedly, it took a lot going right for me to get there. Had I been correct about my most egregious prediction \u2014 that the Giants would make the playoffs \u2014 then I probably would have been wrong about this prediction, because the Giants don\u2019t climb to the elite ranks of farm systems if they trade away Jhonny Level and Bo Davidson instead of trading for Ramon Marquez, Henry Lalane, Joniel Hernandez, and so many others.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Despite graduating Eldridge, the Giants are widely viewed as a top-five farm system now, and there\u2019s no shortage of reasons why. They\u2019ve made excellent trades, they\u2019ve signed big-name international free agents, and they\u2019ve developed players well. The future is exciting, which is good because the present sure ain\u2019t.<\/p>\n<p>2. Harrison Bader and Luis Arr\u00e1ez go in different directions<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">It\u2019s hard to imagine a prediction being more right than this one, and I\u2019m not even sure if the No. 1 prediction on this list is more right. The reason this one isn\u2019t a spot higher is simply because I hedged my bets.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">I didn\u2019t say that Bader will be awful and Arr\u00e1ez will be great; I just said that one of them will struggle, and the other will excel.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">My reasoning was fairly simple. There were reasons to be excited about both players (strong defense and an excellent offensive year in 2025 for Bader; preternatural contact skills for Arr\u00e1ez), and reasons to be exceedingly skeptical (poor underlying metrics with no history of sustained offensive success for Bader; awful defense and downward-trending offense for Arr\u00e1ez). There seemed to be a good chance that one of those gambles would work out, and one would not.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">I had no idea how intensely that would be true. Bader\u2019s first (and likely last) season with the Giants could not have been more of a disaster. He was one of the worst players in all of baseball when on the field, posting a 49 wRC+ with mediocre defense, while accruing a whopping -0.4 fWAR in just 30 games. He dealt with multiple injuries, and then officially lost his season when, while rehabbing a foot injury, crashed a scooter into a fire truck in the marina in the middle of the night. The Giants docked his pay for the second half of the season, and will almost certainly look to void his contract for 2027.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Arr\u00e1ez, on the other hand, did the opposite. He rejuvenated his defensive reputation, going from a tire fire at second base to someone who will almost surely be a Gold Glove finalist. His spiraling offensive production course corrected, as he posted a 121 wRC+ with the Giants (though that number went tumbling down the stairs with the Phillies). He led all Giants players in fWAR (3.8) despite playing in just 105 games before being traded. He represented the team at the All-Star Game and brought them back an impressive haul at the deadline.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Bader was the Giants worst player this year and Arr\u00e1ez their best. I\u2019ll pat myself on the back for this one. But not as much as for the next one\u2026<\/p>\n<p>1. The Giants have more debuts this year than last year<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">In hindsight this doesn\u2019t look like a particularly bold prediction. But if you go back to the start of the year, it was far from obvious. The Giants hadn\u2019t protected a single player from the Rule 5 Draft, and as such had just two players on the 40-man roster \u2014 Susac and Jes\u00fas Rodr\u00edguez \u2014 who had yet to debut. Buster Posey had earned a bit of a reputation in his first year for being very cautious with promotions, not just in the lower levels of the Minors but from the Minors up to the Majors. And the bulk of the AAA talent that seemed ready to contribute \u2014 Eldridge, Gilbert, Whisenhunt, and Tidwell \u2014 had debuted the year prior.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">So it wasn\u2019t all that easy to see how the Giants would have more players debut than the six that played their first MLB game in 2025.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">But my goodness did they. And I put this prediction at No. 1 on the list because they blew past my prediction entirely, and mocked it as they did so.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">In all, the Giants had a hilarious 18 different players make their MLB debut this season (and that number should have been 19, but they did Zach Morgan dirty). 18!<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">For this year, this prediction made me look smart. Just don\u2019t expect me to try it again next year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"On March 25, 2026, the San Francisco Giants began what would quickly prove to be the worst season&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":912970,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[558],"tags":[64,63,591,354400,85],"class_list":["post-912969","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-mlb","tag-san-francisco-giants-analysis","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/912969","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=912969"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/912969\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/912970"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=912969"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=912969"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=912969"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}