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Photo: Getty Images<\/p>\n\u201cThis is the new reality in football. I don\u2019t have to like it \u2013 in truth I don\u2019t care much for it at all \u2013 but what is the alternative for clubs who want to compete?\u201d<\/p>\n
They were the words I wrote in 2009 for the Fox Sports (now DAZN) website, upon hearing the news that Manchester City had been taken over by Sheikh Mansour & his Emirati millions.<\/p>\n
Seventeen years later, City are mired in the biggest scandal English football has ever seen. Found guilty of breaching 114 financial regulations. The club maintains its innocence and will appeal the decision \u2013 and don\u2019t rule out a challenge to the High Court at some stage in the future.<\/p>\n
But after all this is resolved, what next for the Premier League, for City and for their fans \u2013 of which I am one?<\/p>\n
Firstly, let me say that if the guilty verdicts are upheld, then there can be no complaints. Whatever you think of the rules (more on which later), the club knew what those rules were and had a duty to abide by them. If they have flouted them to the extent outlined in the Commission\u2019s report, then the punishment will have to be severe.<\/p>\n
Does that include relegation? Possibly \u2013 but where to? The Premier League and the English Football League (where relegated Premier League clubs drop into) are separate entities, and to forcibly relegate a club would require the co-operation of the EFL and its clubs.<\/p>\n
Stripping of titles? Again, possibly \u2013 but more likely (given the complexity of then sorting out multiple compensation claims that would inevitably follow), is that they are voided, or an asterisk added to the historical record.<\/p>\n
Photo: Getty Images<\/p>\n
The most straightforward option open to the Premier League is the docking of competition points. This has precedent with (smaller) cases such as Everton & Nottingham Forest. Given the sheer scale of charges, one could expect any deduction to be punitive, enough to forcibly relegate City into the Championship, with the bonus that the EFL is obliged to accept any relegated club, as happens on a yearly basis now.<\/p>\n
There will inevitably be a fine of enormous magnitude. Whether those measures will be enough to sate the anger of other clubs and their fans remains to be seen.<\/p>\n
Once the City outcome has been decided, the focus will shift to the longer term. This is the area where the Premier League is going to come under the most scrutiny.<\/p>\n
Do the rules need tightening up? Or do they need to be scrapped & completely rewritten?<\/p>\n
It\u2019s my belief that the latter is the best course of action. While in no way defending rule breakers (again \u2013 they knew what they were, and signed up to them), it\u2019s clear that the current FFP & PSR rules act as a barrier to ambitious clubs, in that clubs can only spend a percentage of their income.<\/p>\n
Aston Villa & Newcastle United have found this to their cost in recent seasons \u2013 being forced to sell their best players to stay within the rules. Additionally, it\u2019s WHERE those players have ended up that best illustrates the problem.<\/p>\n
Newcastle sold Sandro Tonali, Bruno Guimaraes, Anthony Gordon and Alexander Isak. Excluding Barcelona (Gordon\u2019s destination), the other three went to Spurs, Arsenal and Liverpool respectively.<\/p>\n
Similarly, this summer, Villa sold Youri Tielemans, Morgan Rogers and Ezri Konsa to Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal. All members of the \u201cestablishment\u201d with huge accumulated wealth & incomes, although in the case of Manchester United at least, huge debts too.<\/p>\n
If the Premier League merely wants to maintain the status quo, then the current rules benefit those clubs exponentially. What chance a club (forget Leicester City \u2013 that was a once-in-a-lifetime aberration, and they are currently in League One), breaking through the glass ceiling if they cannot spend at least some of their owner\u2019s money?<\/p>\n
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Pep Guardiola\u2019s iconic legacy. Photo: Manchester City \/ X<\/p>\n
Let us not forget that back in 1995 (before any financial rules), Blackburn Rovers won the Premier League, largely on the back of owner Jack Walker\u2019s ability to pay for the likes of Alan Shearer, Chris Sutton, David Batty & Tim Sherwood \u2013 all big stars at the time.<\/p>\n
That story was roundly praised as a \u201cfairytale\u201d \u2013 and Rovers were only unable to continue their success because the Premier League was at a moment where the financial gap was nowhere near what it is today. The likes of United, Liverpool and Arsenal were quickly able to regroup and restore the \u201cnatural\u201d hegemony.<\/p>\n
Ah, I hear you say \u2013 but Walker was a lifelong fan of the club, an individual who wanted to plough his hard-earned cash back into the club he loved all his life. City are owned by a nation state with unlimited wealth reserves, thus skewing the competition?<\/p>\n
I agree \u2013 to a point. But this is where the Premier League\u2019s own \u201cFit & Proper Person\u2019s\u201d test comes in. They agreed to the City purchase themselves, and City insist the club is owned by Sheikh Mansour as an individual. So, how can they complain when that individual (no matter what his personal connections) spends his own money on his own business, just as Walker did all those years ago?<\/p>\n
Which brings us back to the rules.<\/p>\n
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Manchester City chiefs have to land an appeal to see this overturned. Photo: Getty Images<\/p>\n
However much I might disagree with them, City would appear to have broken them quite extensively. Pending any appeal outcome, this places us fans in a difficult predicament.<\/p>\n
Do those memories of Aguerooooo, Rodri\u2019s Champions League-winning goal, or the 100-point season automatically become null and void? Of course not. We lived them in the moment. We are not responsible for club owners\u2019 decisions \u2013 what were we supposed to do? Not cheer a goal because we suspected a sponsorship deal might have been over-inflated? Ridiculous.<\/p>\n
Still, there is the matter of where the club goes from here, assuming their guilt is upheld.<\/p>\n
Wherever they may find themselves \u2013 be that in the Championship, League One or whatever \u2013 the fans are the permanent face of the club. It collectively belongs to all of us.<\/p>\n
At the moment, most City fans I know are steadfast in their resolution that we\u2019ll still beat this. While I\u2019d love to be wrong, I can\u2019t see it.<\/p>\n
In my opinion, once all appeals are exhausted (and assuming the same outcome), the owners must leave. The stain of what has happened means the club will never be allowed to recover if the same owners are in place. The finger of suspicion would never be far away.<\/p>\n
Will Haaland, Semenyo, Anderson & co all depart if we are in the Championship? Probably. But others will replace them. New heroes will emerge, and perhaps we can get back to talking about their exploits, rather than balance sheets.<\/p>\n
Of course, there are knock-on effects of this in Australia too, where City Football Group owns Melbourne City, and plays a not-insignificant role in the running of the league, with Simon Pearce both their Vice-Chairman and an APL Board Member. He was a key figure in the club\u2019s attempt to \u201cunbundle\u201d from Football Australia a few years ago.<\/p>\n
APL say they will \u201cconsider\u201d the findings of the Independent Commission. Melbourne City are not charged with any rule-breaking \u2013 but again, if guilt is established following appeal, it is difficult to see how Pearce can be allowed to continue in his role, given his standing as a Board Member at Manchester City.<\/p>\n
As for the Premier League \u2013 they can thank the work of Der Spiegel (German newspaper) and Rui Pinto of Football Leaks for doing much of the heavy lifting in finding the material upon which they ultimately based the charges. The fact this work came from outside shows there is much for them to do in the areas of governance & compliance.<\/p>\n
They must also look with fresh eyes at their FFP & PSR rules \u2013 for however Manchester City might be guilty (or not), they are clearly not fit for purpose.<\/p>\n
I\u2019ll leave the final words to football finance expert, Kieran Maguire, who said this when appearing on BBC Radio Manchester.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf you take a look at the early years of the Premier League, the clubs that paid the highest wages tended to win the Premier League or finish 2nd or 3rd. How could Manchester City break into that? They had to do that by spending money in terms of player recruitment and more money in terms of player wages, which then led to this concept of financial fair play\u2026 which has nothing to do with fairness, it\u2019s all to do with protectionism. It is not there \u2013 either to make football profitable, because 19 clubs out of 20 lost money last season \u2013 or sustainable. We don\u2019t have a profitable or sustainable Premier League, so therefore why do we have rules?\u201d<\/p>\n
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