{"id":923541,"date":"2026-10-10T22:49:40","date_gmt":"2026-10-10T22:49:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/923541\/"},"modified":"2026-10-10T22:49:40","modified_gmt":"2026-10-10T22:49:40","slug":"ratings-agency-warns-on-record-government-spending","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/923541\/","title":{"rendered":"Ratings agency warns on record government spending"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">Near-record high levels of government spending could threaten Australia&#8217;s fiscal health in the long run if the nation&#8217;s economic luck runs out, a major ratings agency has warned.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">Federal government payments hit 26.9 per cent of gross domestic product in the 2025\/26 financial year, which was the highest level in 40 years excluding COVID-19.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">S&amp;P Global Ratings lead analyst Martin Foo said that Australia&#8217;s high levels of tax revenue meant that was not a problem in the short term.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">Indeed, S&amp;P recently reaffirmed the commonwealth&#8217;s AAA sovereign credit rating.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">But it posed two potential problems down the track.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">Firstly, Australia&#8217;s elevated spending was structural in nature, including higher spending on defence, aged care, social security and interest payments.  <\/p>\n<p>    <a href=\"https:\/\/s.yimg.com\/lo\/mysterio\/api\/7d1659afac9743bff0e9f3c7dde9ff23a10e45a2b3fa4edd29174edc3f77ce34\/lightyear_networkapi\/resizefit_w960%3Bquality_80%3Bformat_webp\/https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.zenfs.com%2Fen%2Faap.com.au%2F2b84a5c908169db5663715c76efe0f10.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" alt=\"Chris Richardson\" height=\"540\" width=\"960\" class=\"yf-1f8hkhu loader\"\/><\/a> Economist Chris Richardson isn&#8217;t a fan of governments making promises off the back of tax windfalls. (<a href=\"https:\/\/photos.aap.com.au\/search\/20200909001489507796\" data-ylk=\"slk:Lukas%20Coch%2FAAP%20PHOTOS;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;source:content-canvas%20default\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkText&quot;:&quot;Lukas Coch\/AAP PHOTOS&quot;,&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;context_link&quot;,&quot;yModuleName&quot;:&quot;content-canvas&quot;,&quot;yTrafficOrigin&quot;:&quot;content-canvas default&quot;}\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Lukas Coch\/AAP PHOTOS<\/a>)           <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">&#8220;These all look like they&#8217;re here to stay, and that could be a problem if revenue windfalls decline,&#8221; Mr Foo said.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">Australia&#8217;s tax take has benefited in recent years from high company and income taxes.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">At 24.1 per cent of GDP, tax revenue is at the highest level on record, except for 2004\/05 and 2005\/06 at the start of the mining boom.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">But if elevated commodity prices faltered or the unemployment rate was to rise suddenly, Australia&#8217;s recent run of tax windfalls could come to an end.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">The comments were echoed by veteran economist Chris Richardson.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">&#8220;Making permanent promises off the back of temporary windfalls is the oldest mistake in the budgetary book,&#8221; he said.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">The second problem was that high government spending was complicating the job of the Reserve Bank, Mr Foo said.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">&#8220;Right now we have a situation where the RBA and the government are, in some cases, pulling in opposite directions,&#8221; he said.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">&#8220;The RBA is trying to clamp down on inflation that&#8217;s primarily driven by growth in aggregate demand, and that means that you have the two major arms of public policy in Australia really not being as effective in delivering their individual mandates as they could otherwise be.&#8221;  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">Following the RBA&#8217;s decision to raise interest rates in late September, Governor Michele Bullock said the Middle East conflict had worsened inflation in recent months, but domestic capacity pressures were the main factor driving the breakout in price growth.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">But Treasurer Jim Chalmers said growth in public demand had been easing while the private economy had been accelerating.  <\/p>\n<p>    <a href=\"https:\/\/s.yimg.com\/lo\/mysterio\/api\/46c8d5e2425c187d55e25c43b04fb09e922af67ccc8122582b831a891f0d2952\/lightyear_networkapi\/resizefit_w960%3Bquality_80%3Bformat_webp\/https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.zenfs.com%2Fen%2Faap.com.au%2F19850e820626f10be4d214cbfc830f92.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" alt=\"Chalmers\" height=\"540\" width=\"960\" class=\"yf-1f8hkhu loader\"\/><\/a> Treasurer Jim Chalmers says growth in public demand is easing. (<a href=\"https:\/\/photos.aap.com.au\/search\/20261001172817022890\" data-ylk=\"slk:Darren%20England%2FAAP%20PHOTOS;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;source:content-canvas%20default\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkText&quot;:&quot;Darren England\/AAP PHOTOS&quot;,&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;context_link&quot;,&quot;yModuleName&quot;:&quot;content-canvas&quot;,&quot;yTrafficOrigin&quot;:&quot;content-canvas default&quot;}\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Darren England\/AAP PHOTOS<\/a>)            <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">&#8220;If you think about the last year or so, compared to the year before, public final demand growth has halved while private final demand growth has tripled. And so that gives you a good sense that there are other factors at play,&#8221; he told Bloomberg Australia in an interview.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">Ms Bullock said the underlying reason why the economy was breaking out in inflation sweats despite relatively subdued growth was because productivity had been &#8220;doing nothing&#8221;.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">Part of the reason why productivity has stagnated was because Australia was being throttled by regulation, according to a report produced by consultancy Mandala for the Australian Institute of Company Directors.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">If the federal government rolled back the regulatory burden back to 2000s levels, Australia&#8217;s economy would be boosted by at least $20 billion a year, the report found.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">Australia needed to have a national conversation around what an acceptable level of risk, said the institute&#8217;s chief executive Mark Rigotti.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">The population has come to expect 100 per cent perfection and governments have been expected to react with new regulation every time something goes wrong, without thinking about the long-term impacts to overall prosperity.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">&#8220;If we don&#8217;t fix this, all of our grandkids are going to be worse off,&#8221; Mr Rigotti said.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Near-record high levels of government spending could threaten Australia&#8217;s fiscal health in the long run if the nation&#8217;s&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":923542,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[1778,64,63,99,174,164,186,10346,5476,21130,10347,1603,21131,8792,184,5482,1003,1793,5473,10348,10349,2004,21132,4961,21133],"class_list":["post-923541","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-401k","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-business","tag-business-news","tag-economy","tag-finance","tag-financial-information","tag-investing","tag-investment-tools","tag-investor","tag-market-news","tag-mortgage","tag-mutual-funds","tag-personal-finance","tag-quote","tag-real-estate","tag-retirement","tag-stock","tag-stock-research","tag-stock-valuation","tag-stocks","tag-suze-orman","tag-tax","tag-track-portfolio"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/923541","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=923541"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/923541\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/923542"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=923541"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=923541"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=923541"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}