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Australia exported beef to 83 countries in 2025. Source: Getty \/ Darren Hunt \/ FlickrVision<\/p>\nIN BRIEF:Brazil is the world’s leading beef exporter and producer.Commentators warn that shifts in global markets could see the country absorb Australia’s markets.<\/p>\n
Australian beef could face its toughest competition yet, as the world’s leading producer encroaches on its traditional export markets.<\/p>\n
Since the early 2000s, Brazil has consistently ranked as the world’s leading beef producer, with an enormous 230 million-strong herd in 2024, more than the country’s estimated population. The South American country is also the world’s leading exporter, sending its beef to 130 different countries.<\/p>\n
Australia has long prided itself on its beef exports: in 2025, 1.5 million tonnes of beef were sent to 83 countries. In 2025, the value of Australian beef exports was $19.6 billion, according to the industry’s peak body, Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA).<\/p>\n
But commentators are suggesting South American exporters are expanding in Australia’s most important export markets \u2014 South Korea and Japan \u2014 which could have significant impacts on price competition over the coming months.<\/p>\n
Speaking on a recent Food & Agribusiness podcast, Angus Gidley-Baird, senior animal proteins analyst at food and agribusiness bank Rabobank, said Australia\u2019s beef sector should closely monitor developments in Brazil.<\/p>\n
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“Over the past few years, we\u2019ve seen Brazil increase its presence in several of Australia\u2019s export markets,” Gidley-Baird said. <\/p>\n
“Combined with changing trade dynamics involving China, the United States and Europe, it is becoming increasingly important for Australian producers and exporters to understand what is happening in the Brazilian beef sector.”<\/p>\n
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Brazil already has a big presence in the Australian meat industry, through worldwide giant JBS. It’s the biggest meat processing company in Australia owning a series of foodlots and abattoirs, as well as the smallgoods company Primo Foods.<\/p>\n
More than half of Brazil’s beef exports are to China, and it hit its annual quota of 1.1 million tonnes for shipments to China last month.<\/p>\n
China’s commerce ministry said it would start collecting an additional 55 per cent tariff on Brazil’s beef shipments on 1 October after the South American country reached its annual \u200cquota of 1.1 million tonnes.<\/p>\n
Rabobank Brazil animal protein analyst Wagner Yanaguizawa said that new quota restrictions significantly reduced Brazilian shipments during the second half of 2025, creating surplus volumes that would need to be redirected elsewhere, and could translate into greater competition for Australia in alternative destination markets.<\/p>\n
Australia exported beef to 83 countries in 2025. Source: Getty \/ Darren Hunt \/ FlickrVision<\/p>\n
Yanaguizawa said the United States was likely to absorb some of the displaced volume, while the Middle East, Indonesia, Vietnam, Chile and the United Kingdom also presented opportunities. Those markets would not be sufficient to offset reduced Chinese demand, though, he said.<\/p>\n
Yanaguizawa said the potential opening of Japan and South Korea to Brazilian beef also warrants close attention from Australian industry participants.<\/p>\n
“Japanese and South Korean inspections of Brazilian processing plants had been completed, and final reports were pending before market access decisions could be finalised. Industry expectations are that access could be granted later this year,” Yanaguizawa said.<\/p>\n
“These two markets are very important for Australia, and soon Australia may have a new competitor,” he said.<\/p>\n
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The Meat and Livestock Association (MLA) is aware of the shift. On an August 2026 podcast, MLA regional manager for Southeast Asia, Valeska, said that as global trade patterns shifted, Australian beef volumes had been redirected from China into Southeast Asia.<\/p>\n
At the same time, competition across Southeast Asia was intensifying, as exporters from South America actively pursued new opportunities across the region.<\/p>\n
“The South Americans are really active and quite aggressive. At the [World Food Expo in the Philippines] yesterday, we spoke with Brazilian packers who indicated they’re looking at alternative markets.”<\/p>\n
Valeska said she believed Australia’s long-term investment in Southeast Asia positioned the industry well.<\/p>\n
“We’re not resting on our laurels. Australian beef is definitely ramping up activities across Southeast Asia, and I think it’s an opportunity to really secure the premium segment while continuing to grow demand through other channels.”<\/p>\n
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