{"id":927259,"date":"2026-10-14T01:16:18","date_gmt":"2026-10-14T01:16:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/927259\/"},"modified":"2026-10-14T01:16:18","modified_gmt":"2026-10-14T01:16:18","slug":"the-return-of-the-prodigal-son-why-speculation-is-rising-over-josh-frydenbergs-future-coalition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/927259\/","title":{"rendered":"The return of the prodigal son? Why speculation is rising over Josh Frydenberg\u2019s future | Coalition"},"content":{"rendered":"

A reasonable query for Liberals at this point is: if Josh Frydenberg<\/a> is the answer, what is the question?<\/p>\n

There was a whiff of weariness in some corners of parliament this week, as the former treasurer and deputy Liberal leader happily stoked another round of \u201cJosh for Canberra\u201d speculation. With more rumoured comebacks than Oasis<\/a>, Frydenberg\u2019s latest foray into the national political arena saw him bouncing around TV, radio and podcast interviews to promote his new book, and pointedly refuse to rule out trying to rejoin the parliament.<\/p>\n

His book \u2013 part family history, part treatise on antisemitism and social cohesion, part political manifesto \u2013 is titled A Grateful Son. But is he instead the prodigal son? The one who set out on his own but is destined to be welcomed back to the Liberal party<\/a> family with joy and celebrations?<\/p>\n

Frydenberg is young enough, bright enough and certainly energetic enough to still make a difference in public life. His addition to what is often a tired Coalition<\/a> party room would certainly spice things up, and give a new weapon in its arsenal. The ideas in his book \u2013 a remix of the GST to fund income tax cuts, concerns about the future of his party, changes to the system of federalism, yet more calls for civic service for school leavers \u2013 are politically inconvenient for the federal Coalition as well as the Victorian Liberals headed for an election win, but are worth considering.<\/p>\n

The talk around parliament is that Frydenberg is privately telling people he is unlikely to seek a return. But the fact he has pointedly refused to rule it out in a conga line of media interviews, saying only that he would make his mind up later, seems opportunistic. The spectre of a potential leadership alternative is hardly a help for Angus Taylor<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Labor sources have helpfully shared key quotes from Frydenberg\u2019s book and media tour, pointing out his calls for changes to GST and the labour market, and criticisms of the Liberal trajectory \u2013 again, none helpful to the leader.<\/p>\n

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The problems facing the modern Liberal party, under Taylor\u2019s leadership, are myriad. Its hostile right flank is barracking for Pauline Hanson and One Nation<\/a>, its centre is still eyeing the teal independents, and Taylor \u2013 now eight months into the job \u2013 has a lower primary vote than Sussan Ley when she was dumped. The Guardian Essential poll found the Coalition primary vote at a record low 22% in September<\/a>, compared to 25% in January<\/a>, a fortnight before Taylor rolled Ley.<\/p>\n

These are all reasons for alarm for the centre right. It\u2019s just not clear if Frydenberg is the answer to any of these problems. One question echoing around parliament this week was: would he do a better job than Taylor on anything substantive? In other words, is he yesterday\u2019s man?<\/p>\n

A return to the party room would give the Coalition a well-known face and a policy brain in a team which could benefit from both. Maybe Frydenberg would be content to return as a loyal soldier under Taylor, serving in an appropriately senior cabinet role. But maybe not. Few think he\u2019d give up a well-paid job in banking to sit on the frontbench instead of the leader\u2019s chair.<\/p>\n

Josh Frydenberg outside the Treasury department building in Canberra in 2022. Photograph: Lukas Coch\/AAP<\/p>\n

The loudest cheer Hanson got at last weekend\u2019s Cpac conference was when she sledged Taylor, saying Australians didn\u2019t want a \u201csmarmy management consultant\u201d replacing Anthony Albanese<\/a> as prime minister. Would any of those voters more prefer the chair of investment bank Goldman Sachs, the role Frydenberg currently holds? Taylor in recent times has tried throwing a bone to that fringe of the rightwing movement, producing more off-the-cuff videos with unpolished deliveries (and swearing) a la Hanson \u2013 would Frydenberg, at home in boardrooms and business lunches, be able to win back the voters furious at \u201cpolitics as usual\u201d and career politicians?<\/p>\n

Maybe, then, Frydenberg could chart a course back to the middle for the Coalition: not chasing its right flank further to the fringe, but setting a mainstream course back toward the centre, where elections in Australia are won.<\/p>\n

That would be a decent idea, if you forget how Frydenberg was ejected from parliament in the first place: bundled out in 2022 by Monique Ryan in the big community independents wave which swept half a dozen moderate-ish urban Liberals from their seats.<\/p>\n

Ryan was supported by Climate 200<\/a>. That group\u2019s origin story may be relevant here: Simon Holmes \u00e0 Court, a former donor to Frydenberg\u2019s Kooyong 200 fundraising vehicle, was reportedly ejected from a supporter event<\/a> and set up his own group in response. Climate 200 would hardly respond to Frydenberg\u2019s comeback, or potential leadership, with party poppers and a \u201cwelcome back\u201d card.<\/p>\n

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The teal wave that swept Frydenberg and several other moderate Liberals from office in 2022 hasn\u2019t exactly swelled into a tsunami since then, and some could argue the conditions of four years ago are not there today \u2013 just ask Tim Wilson, who lost Goldstein to teal Zoe Daniel in 2022 but wrested it back in 2025.<\/p>\n

No Liberals we spoke to this week were jazzed about the prospect of Frydenberg\u2019s return, or the distraction it provides.<\/p>\n

But if there were any people happy about his potential return, they were on the government benches.<\/p>\n

Albanese joked to Labor\u2019s caucus meeting on Tuesday that Frydenberg was now the \u201cshadow opposition leader\u201d, claiming \u201cJosh Frydenberg\u2019s priority has always been Josh Frydenberg\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m surprised Josh Frydenberg isn\u2019t trying to bump me off this program,\u201d the PM joked on the ABC later in the day.<\/p>\n

The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, claimed his old sparring partner was \u201cstalking\u201d Taylor for the leadership. One senior Labor source cheekily joked that we should call it \u201cthe Fryre festival\u201d, a reference to the ill-fated and chaotic Fyre festival in 2017<\/a>, which had its own short-lived and catastrophic comeback in 2024.<\/p>\n

Frydenberg\u2019s media tour is likely to continue over coming days. The speculation over his potential comeback will linger even longer \u2013 Labor will make sure of it.<\/p>\n

Josh Butler is a Guardian Australia political reporter and chief of staff in Canberra<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A reasonable query for Liberals at this point is: if Josh Frydenberg is the answer, what is the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":927260,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[64,63,44],"class_list":["post-927259","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-australia","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/927259","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=927259"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/927259\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/927260"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=927259"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=927259"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=927259"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}