{"id":932677,"date":"2026-10-18T14:24:15","date_gmt":"2026-10-18T14:24:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/932677\/"},"modified":"2026-10-18T14:24:15","modified_gmt":"2026-10-18T14:24:15","slug":"human-vs-chatgpt-nfl-week-6-betting-picks-ai-goes-all-in-on-totals-after-another-weekly-win","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/932677\/","title":{"rendered":"Human vs. ChatGPT NFL Week 6 betting picks: AI goes all-in on totals after another weekly win"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

OK, this is getting annoying.<\/p>\n

ChatGPT beat me in NFL betting for the second straight week<\/a>, going 3-2 while I finished 2-3. The robot added 0.94 units to its total, while I gave back 1.26. It also won our only head-to-head matchup, backing San Francisco while I took Seattle. That’s three straight losses for me in games where we picked opposite sides.<\/p>\n

NFL WEEK 5 SUNDAY TAKEAWAYS: RODGERS DEFIES FATHER TIME, COEN GETS BAILED OUT, 49ERS SURVIVE UGLY PERFORMANCE<\/a><\/p>\n

Apparently, telling the robot I was proud of it last week was a mistake. Now it has confidence.<\/p>\n

This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX News may be compensated. This content was created by a team that works independently from the FOX newsroom.<\/p>\n

\"Xavier <\/p>\n

ChatGPT beat me in Week 5 NFL betting picks, and I imagine this photo of Panthers WR Xavier Legette is how it is feeling going into Week 6. (Kara Durrette\/Getty Images)<\/p>\n

Before GPT gets too excited, though, I’m still the only one making money this season. I’m sitting at 13-11-1 and +1.26 units, while the machine is 11-14 and down 3.87 units. Yes, my lead is shrinking. No, I don’t particularly want to talk about that.<\/p>\n

What I would like to talk about is the Eagles covering as my latest “plug your nose and hit place bet” pick. Apparently, the bets I hate making are the ones I should be making more often (4-0 this year). There’s probably a lesson in there somewhere, but knowing me, I’ll ignore it.<\/p>\n

Anyway, we’ve both got five more picks for Week 6. Let’s see if I can give humanity something to celebrate again.<\/p>\n

Both of us get five selections from the same odds board, with a maximum price of -120.<\/p>\n

The stakes are adjusted so every winning bet produces one unit of profit. For example, -110 requires risking 1.10 units, while +110 requires 0.91 units. A push returns the stake and counts as zero units.<\/p>\n

Odds were captured Thursday at 8 p.m. ET.<\/p>\n

Before we get to the Week 6 picks, let\u2019s review last week.<\/p>\n

Week 5 NFL Betting ResultsDan\u2019s Week 5 NFL Betting Picks (2-3, -1.26 units)Philadelphia Eagles +7\u00bd (-110) \u2705 (+1 unit)Minnesota Vikings-New Orleans Saints Over 42 (-107) \u274c (-1.07 units)Las Vegas Raiders<\/a>-New England Patriots Under 45 (-109) \u274c (-1.09 units)Denver Broncos-Los Angeles Chargers<\/a> Under 42 (-108) \u2705 (+1 unit)Seattle Seahawks -3 (-110) \u274c (-1.10 units)<\/p>\n

The Eagles coasted to an easy cover in a game where they never trailed by more than 7 and would have won the game outright if not for Nick Sirianni’s terrible late-game decision-making. Basically, my Sunday peaked before the early-afternoon games started and never really got better.<\/p>\n

I was way wrong about the Saints offense, as Tyler Shough threw for 96 yards in the loss. And I was even more wrong about the Patriots, who matched the entire 45-point total on their own. I stand by the Seahawks pick, and I\u2019m still mad about Mike Macdonald calling an outside zone run from Seattle\u2019s own 4-yard line with 18 seconds left in the first half. George Holani fumbled, and San Francisco recovered in the end zone.<\/p>\n

GPT\u2019s Week 5 NFL Betting Picks (3-2, +0.94 units)Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9 (-105) \u2705 (+1 unit)Chicago Bears-Green Bay Packers Under 46 (-110) \u2705 (+1 unit)Las Vegas Raiders +3\u00bd (-104) \u274c (-1.04 units)San Francisco 49ers +3 (-102) \u2705 (+1 unit)Buffalo Bills<\/a>-Los Angeles Rams Under 54\u00bd (-102) \u274c (-1.02 units)<\/p>\n

GPT nailed Thursday Night Football as the nine-point underdog Bucs went into Dallas and upset the Cowboys. But it whiffed badly on the Raiders, who lost by 28. Yes, it got me on the 49ers-Seahawks bet, and I’m still mad about that fumble recovery in the end zone to close the first half.<\/p>\n

Not to keep tooting GPT’s horn, but since its abysmal 2-8 start (including 0-5 in Week 1), the robot is now 9-6 over the past three weeks.<\/p>\n

SEASON REPORT CARD<\/p>\n

DAN: 13-11-1, +1.26 units<\/p>\n

GPT: 11-14, -3.87 units<\/p>\n

Dan\u2019s Week 6 NFL Betting CardChicago Bears-Atlanta Falcons Under 52\u00bd (-108)Los Angeles Chargers +7\u00bd (-110)Las Vegas Raiders +5\u00bd (-110)Dallas Cowboys Moneyline (+101)Washington Commanders<\/a> +7\u00bd (-110)1. Chicago Bears-Atlanta Falcons Under 52\u00bd (-108)<\/p>\n

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET<\/p>\n

Dan\u2019s analysis:<\/p>\n

I just think this total is too high. Caleb Williams is back, but I think he’s going to be cautious coming off his hamstring injury and not use his legs as much. I also think the Bears staff wants to keep him healthy by establishing the run early and often. The Falcons have been putting up points since Michael Penix Jr. returned from injury, but I think their offense is due for a step back. I can see both teams running the ball a ton and keeping the clock moving, so I’ll take the under.<\/p>\n

\"Caleb <\/p>\n

Caleb Williams returns to the Chicago Bears lineup after missing the past three games with a hamstring injury. (Getty Images)<\/p>\n

GPT\u2019s analysis:<\/p>\n

The high total and both teams\u2019 rushing production give your under a credible foundation. Chicago has also converted just 42.9% of its red-zone trips into touchdowns, making an efficient shootout less dependable. My concern is the defensive personnel: Chicago is missing Montez Sweat, Dayo Odeyingbo and T.J. Edwards, while Atlanta\u2019s cornerback injuries give the Bears a favorable passing matchup. Those absences create scoring opportunities on both sides. I see the under argument, but the competing injury effects kept this outside my five.<\/p>\n

2. Los Angeles Chargers +7\u00bd (-110)<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET<\/p>\n

Dan\u2019s analysis:<\/p>\n

This is the official “Dan Z.\u2019s Plug Your Nose and Hit ‘Place Bet’ Bet of the Week” (that’s trademarked and don’t you dare try to steal it from me). I just can’t quit the Chargers. I refuse to believe that a team led by Justin Herbert is completely incapable of scoring points. Also, the Chiefs are 4-0 and a team the public generally likes to bet. So, I’ll fade the likely public money and back the Chargers (again), even though it’s going to feel terrible hitting that “place bet” button.<\/p>\n

GPT\u2019s analysis:<\/p>\n

Getting more than a touchdown is the strongest argument for Los Angeles, especially with a defense performing better than its 0-5 record suggests. Kansas City is also missing Rashee Rice and Josh Simmons. My concern is the Chargers\u2019 depleted offensive line and turnover problems against a rested Chiefs team. Stalled possessions and short fields could help Kansas City build separation without consistently beating that defense. I prefer under 41.5, but your +7.5 still cashes in a 24\u201317 Chiefs victory. The hook makes this considerably more appealing than +7.<\/p>\n

3. Las Vegas Raiders +5\u00bd (-110)<\/p>\n

Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET<\/p>\n

Dan\u2019s analysis:<\/p>\n

I\u2019m not sure if I can have two “plug your nose” picks in one week, but this is another one that could easily qualify (I mean I make the rules so I can whatever I want, but I digress). Basically, I’ve decided I’m just fading the best teams in the NFL this week (this theme isn’t done). The Raiders came out firing at 3-0 before suffering a heartbreaking loss against the Chiefs in Week 4 and then getting boatraced by the Patriots in Week 5. But this is more about the Bills. Buffalo is coming off a thrilling overtime win over the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football. It’s tough to recover on a short week after an overtime game. Plus, the Bills are playing back-to-back games out west in the Pacific Time Zone. I think Las Vegas can keep this close enough to cover.<\/p>\n

GPT\u2019s analysis:<\/p>\n

Buffalo\u2019s vulnerable pass defense gives Kirk Cousins and Brock Bowers a route to keeping Las Vegas competitive. The Bills are also coming off a Monday night overtime game, strengthening the home underdog\u2019s case. My hesitation is Las Vegas\u2019 defense, which allows 140.6 rushing yards per game and faces Josh Allen and James Cook. Buffalo could score efficiently without needing its questionable receivers at full strength. I prefer over 53.5, which can cash whether the Raiders keep this close or Buffalo creates separation.<\/p>\n

4. Dallas Cowboys Moneyline (+101)<\/p>\n

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers, Sunday Night Football<\/p>\n

Dan\u2019s analysis:<\/p>\n

In all honesty, this is all about fading public perception. Dallas is coming off an ugly Thursday Night Football loss to a previously winless Tampa Bay team starting rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels. On the other side, the Packers smashed a shorthanded Chicago Bears team. Basically, everyone thinks the Cowboys are bad and the Packers are good. The answer lies somewhere in the middle, so I’ll take the plus money with Dallas because I think they’re going to win this game.<\/p>\n

\"Dallas <\/p>\n

I’m backing the Dallas Cowboys to beat the Green Bay Packers in Week 6. (Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)<\/p>\n

GPT\u2019s analysis:<\/p>\n

Dallas\u2019 productive offense and three extra rest days offer the best case for your pick. Green Bay has also lost defensive tackles Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Ford to injured reserve, creating an opportunity for the Cowboys\u2019 running game. My concern is Dallas\u2019 defense, which ranks last in EPA allowed per play. Jordan Love and Green Bay\u2019s receivers have a favorable matchup at home. The Cowboys can win this, but their defensive problems make the outright victory difficult to trust. I lean Green Bay -1, although neither side made my five.<\/p>\n

5. Washington Commanders +7\u00bd (-110)<\/p>\n

Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers, Monday Night Football<\/p>\n

Dan\u2019s analysis:<\/p>\n

I told you I was fading the best teams in the NFL this week, and this one certainly qualifies. Yes, San Francisco is coming off a big win over Seattle, but it was not the team’s best performance. The 49ers turned the ball over three times and committed 8 penalties for 70 yards. They really only won because the Seahawks somehow managed to play worse (including one of the most puzzling coaching decisions of the year by Mike Macdonald). Washington is coming off a brutal tie against the Giants (a game that somehow had even worse coaching) and, yes, the overtime hurts. But the Commanders have an extra day to recover, which helps. I’m a big Jayden Daniels believer and I think the team is going to be motivated by last week’s debacle. Motivated enough to keep it within a touchdown, at least.<\/p>\n

SEAN MCVAY IS ‘SICK’ ABOUT HIS OVERTIME CALL AS ANOTHER SUPER BOWL COACH PUBLICLY REGRETS END OF GAME DECISION<\/a><\/p>\n

GPT\u2019s analysis:<\/p>\n

Getting 7.5 gives Washington valuable protection against a seven-point loss. Jayden Daniels\u2019 mobility provides a way to sustain drives, and San Francisco is without Deebo Samuel while Mike Evans and Christian Kirk remain questionable. My concern is Washington\u2019s defense, which has allowed 95 second-half points through five games. Brock Purdy\u2019s efficient offense is positioned to exploit that weakness as the game progresses. The hook helps, but Washington\u2019s defensive inconsistency and the absence of leading rusher Jacory Croskey-Merritt kept this outside my five.<\/p>\n

GPT\u2019s Week 6 NFL Betting Card<\/p>\n

For full transparency, I used GPT-6.1 Sol, and set the thinking effort to Ultra (highest available). Then, I fed it the OddsChecker board as it appeared Thursday at 8 p.m. ET and gave it the following prompt:<\/p>\n

“Pick your five best bets for Week 6 based on the odds provided. No bet can be priced worse than -120. Review every spread, total and moneyline that falls within those parameters and determine whether it belongs among your five picks. Explain exactly why you\u2019re selecting each of the five bets. Also explain exactly why you\u2019re passing on the eligible bets you don\u2019t select. Use at least 10 different sources for each game so you have a broad understanding of everything surrounding each game. Before delivering the results, do a fact-check and ensure that everything is correct.”<\/p>\n

After nearly 10 minutes of thinking, here\u2019s what it came up with:<\/p>\n

Carolina Panthers-Philadelphia Eagles Over 39 (-107)Tennessee Titans-Indianapolis Colts Under 44\u00bd (-108)New York Jets-New England Patriots Under 43\u00bd (-108)Buffalo Bills-Las Vegas Raiders Over 53\u00bd (-108)Los Angeles Chargers-Kansas City Chiefs Under 41\u00bd (-110)1. Carolina Panthers-Philadelphia Eagles Over 39 (-107)<\/p>\n

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET<\/p>\n

GPT\u2019s analysis:<\/p>\n

Carolina averages 30.3 points per game, while Tanner McKee gets DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks available against a Panthers defense missing both starting cornerbacks. Philadelphia\u2019s offensive-line injuries and Saquon Barkley\u2019s absence are the biggest concerns, but 39 doesn\u2019t require a shootout. Carolina\u2019s productive passing game can supply much of the scoring, and McKee has enough receiving help to contribute. I prefer the over to laying three with the Panthers because it can cash regardless of which team wins.<\/p>\n

GPT\u2019s projected score: Panthers 24, Eagles 17<\/p>\n

Dan\u2019s analysis:<\/p>\n

Not gonna lie, I kind of love this pick. It’s like GPT is taking a page out of my playbook: fade the obvious bets. I have to think the public is going to actually like the UNDER because of the Eagles losing Jalen Hurts, but the team’s offense is actually returning several key players. Tanner McKee is capable enough to lead the Eagles to at least 20 points and if he does, I think this game probably does go OVER.<\/p>\n

2. Tennessee Titans-Indianapolis Colts Under 44\u00bd (-108)<\/p>\n

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET<\/p>\n

GPT\u2019s analysis:<\/p>\n

Tennessee has managed just 58 points in five games, and both Cam Ward and Daniel Jones average 5.8 yards per attempt. The Titans also allow only 3.54 yards per rush, giving them a way to limit Jonathan Taylor and force Indianapolis to rely on its struggling passing game. Tyler Warren\u2019s questionable status adds receiving uncertainty. Indianapolis\u2019 poor defense is the biggest concern, but 44.5 leaves room for Tennessee to improve without producing a high-scoring game. I prefer the under to trusting either offense against the spread.<\/p>\n

GPT\u2019s projected score: Colts 24, Titans 16<\/p>\n

Dan\u2019s analysis:<\/p>\n

I don’t have a lot to say here. The Titans offense has been abysmal and the Colts aren’t lighting up the scoreboard. Plus, divisional games tend to be lower-scoring and more tightly contested. So, I guess I kinda like this bet?<\/p>\n

\"Cam <\/p>\n

Cam Ward and the Tennessee Titans have struggled offensively all season. (AP Photo\/George Walker IV)<\/p>\n

3. New York Jets-New England Patriots Under 43\u00bd (-108)<\/p>\n

New York Jets at New England Patriots, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET<\/p>\n

GPT\u2019s analysis:<\/p>\n

New York averages 18.6 points and will be without Breece Hall, Adonai Mitchell and Dylan Parham, leaving an already limited offense with fewer options. Christian Gonzalez\u2019s return helps New England contain Garrett Wilson, while the Jets\u2019 pass rush presents a challenge for Drake Maye. A.J. Brown\u2019s return and Maye\u2019s effectiveness against blitzes are the strongest opposing arguments. Still, 43.5 offers room for a Patriots victory without another offensive outburst. I prefer the total to choosing which team covers the seven-point spread.<\/p>\n

GPT\u2019s projected score: Patriots 23, Jets 17<\/p>\n

Dan\u2019s analysis:<\/p>\n

I mean, following my logic from the previous GPT under, I guess I kinda like this one too? The Patriots put up a ton of points the past two weeks, but their offense couldn’t do anything in Weeks 1-3. The Jets are… the Jets. They haven’t scored more than 24 points in a game this season and the Patriots defense is pretty good.<\/p>\n

4. Buffalo Bills-Las Vegas Raiders Over 53\u00bd (-108)<\/p>\n

Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET<\/p>\n

GPT\u2019s analysis:<\/p>\n

Buffalo averages 32.8 points and faces a Las Vegas defense allowing 140.6 rushing yards per game, giving Josh Allen and James Cook a favorable matchup. The Raiders have their own scoring route through Kirk Cousins and Brock Bowers against Buffalo\u2019s vulnerable pass defense. Buffalo\u2019s questionable receivers and short turnaround after Monday\u2019s overtime game are concerns. However, both defenses allow more than 25 points per game, and the indoor venue removes weather disruption. I prefer the over to needing Buffalo to create separation.<\/p>\n

GPT\u2019s projected score: Bills 31, Raiders 27<\/p>\n

Dan\u2019s analysis:<\/p>\n

This total is way too high for me to back the over. Not loving this pick, GPT.<\/p>\n

\"Kenneth <\/p>\n

The Chiefs are 4-0 and coming off their bye week. (Getty Images)<\/p>\n

5. Los Angeles Chargers-Kansas City Chiefs Under 41\u00bd (-110)<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET<\/p>\n

GPT\u2019s analysis:<\/p>\n

Los Angeles averages 16.8 points and has a depleted offensive line, making consistent touchdown drives difficult to expect. The Chargers\u2019 defense has played considerably better, giving them a way to limit Kansas City\u2019s scoring. The Chiefs will also be without Rashee Rice and left tackle Josh Simmons. Kansas City\u2019s explosive running game and the Chargers\u2019 turnover problems are the main risks. Still, 41.5 allows a 24\u201317 game to cash. The offensive limitations and potential defensive resistance make this my fifth selection.<\/p>\n

GPT\u2019s projected score: Chiefs 24, Chargers 13<\/p>\n

Dan\u2019s analysis:<\/p>\n

I like this because if this game goes under the total, it makes it more likely that the Chargers will cover the 7\u00bd-point spread. I also tend to think this is going to be a lower-scoring game, so I don’t hate GPT’s play here. But it’s pretty crazy that GPT is going all-in on totals this week. The robot has been OK on totals this season (4-3), so maybe this is a smart move. I guess we’ll see.<\/p>\n

OUTKICK IS NOW AVAILABLE ON THE FOX NEWS APP: CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD<\/a><\/p>\n

OK, that’s it for Week 6! Check back next week to see whether GPT can beat me in three straight weeks or if the human is due to remind AI that our brains are still superior.<\/p>\n

Dan Zaksheske is a reporter at OutKick.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"OK, this is getting annoying. ChatGPT beat me in NFL betting for the second straight week, going 3-2…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":932678,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[559],"tags":[64,63,615,1234,1240,593,300794,85,41162],"class_list":["post-932677","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nfl","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-betting","tag-dallas-cowboys","tag-kansas-city-chiefs","tag-nfl","tag-outkick-sports","tag-sports","tag-sports-gambling"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/932677","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=932677"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/932677\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/932678"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=932677"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=932677"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=932677"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}