Last week\u2019s defense rankings were a mixed bag again, though slightly better than in Week 5. Five of my top 10 defenses finished in the top ten, which was one more than the consensus rankings finished with, so I can\u2019t be mad there. The Chiefs, Steelers, Ravens, and Broncos all delivered for us, and the Chiefs\u2019 15 fantasy points were the second most of the week, so putting them first overall feels good. <\/p>\n
Yet, the Seahawks, who I had ranked second, scored just three points, and the Jaguars, who I had seventh, scored one, which doesn\u2019t feel quite as good. The Seattle ranking is the one that stings, because, in many ways, the defense did what we thought they would. They held Denver under 170 total yards and allowed just 17 points in an overtime loss, but the sacks and turnovers were just not there. Which is another great reminder that sacks and turnovers are really not sticky week-to-week. We do our best to predict it because we know how crucial they are, but sometimes a defense plays really well and just doesn\u2019t deliver for fantasy because of normal turnover variance. <\/p>\n
The biggest miss in my rankings was having the Titans ranked 25th when they finished first with 21 points. Although I\u2019m not really sure there\u2019s much to take away from that. They allowed nearly 400 yards and didn\u2019t record a sack, but they were able to force a season-high three turnovers and blocked a punt, which they returned for a touchdown. I didn\u2019t have the Saints in my top 10 either, and I know consensus did, so that was a whiff after they finished third. Yet, I still don\u2019t think their season-long performance really warranted that kind of ranking. We just got bad Jameis Winston on Sunday, and it was a killer for the Giants, who also benched Cam Skattebo and got very little from their running game. <\/p>\n
However, after all of that, I did make some changes to my model. After testing more than 80 different stats, the only input that really predicts fantasy output appears to be the strength of the opposing offense, so I\u2019m going to lean harder on the matchup, which means more focus on implied team total, and I\u2019m adding a sack-rate check on the opposing offense, which is a steadier signal than anything else I tested. I\u2019m also putting less weight on turnover rate because it has just been proven time and time again to not be consistent week over week. I\u2019m still going to favor defenses that get consistent pressure and get off the field on third down, and we\u2019ll see if that can continue our solid performance this season, which you can see in the table below. <\/p>\n
2026 SEASON SUCCESS RATE<\/p>\n
Chart dataTop-10 hitsTop-10 hit rateTop-16 hitsTop-16 hit rateMy Ranks, Week 6550.0%1062.5%Consensus, Week 6440.0%850.0%My Ranks, season to date3253.3%6163.5%Consensus*, season to date2745.0%4556.3%<\/p>\n
*Consensus Rankings are taken from FantasyPros Consensus Rankings around 10 am on Sundays. For Week 1 only this season, I used a combination of ClutchPoints and RotoBaller.<\/p>\n
BOD Formula and Philosophy<\/p>\n
If you\u2019ve read my earlier articles, then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, \u201cWho is playing a bad offense?\u201d Yet, when I did a deep dive this offseason, I discovered that the stats most commonly associated with top-10 fantasy defenses were first-down allowed, points per game allowed, and third-down conversion rate allowed. So even though I love defenses who get pressure, defenses who can also get off the field quickly tend to be the best fantasy defenses. Perhaps this isn\u2019t a shock, but maybe we\u2019re not really paying attention to the relevant stats when predicting fantasy defensive performance.<\/p>\n
The next four most predictive defensive stats were pressure rate, passes defended, turnover rate, and explosive play rate allowed (plays over 20+ yards). With that in mind, I decided to update my Best Overall Defense (BOD) formula to include just these seven stats. I doubled the weight of the first three stats, which are more predictive, and have a single weight for the other four stats. I also incorporate Vegas\u2019 implied team total in the algorithm every week, and when we get opponent stats, I will include fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses as part of the equation since fantasy points are the strongest predictor of fantasy points.<\/p>\n
I\u2019ll obviously have to adjust the algorithm each week for injuries or weather, but I try not to rely too much on \u201cgut feel\u201d or concerns about wind, etc.<\/p>\n
With that out of the way, onto the rankings.<\/p>\n
FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC\u2019S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.<\/p>\n
2026 Week 7 DST Rankings<\/p>\n
RankTier One DSTsOpponent1Minnesota Vikingsvs IND<\/p>\n
Yes, it\u2019s just the Vikings here. Minnesota is 1st in the league in points allowed, third-down rate, first downs allowed, pressure rate, turnover rate (16.7%), and fantasy points scored per game. So, yeah, that\u2019s pretty good. They are also coming off a bye and facing a Colts team that has the lowest implied total on the board at 17.5 points. The Colts have the fourth-highest turnover rate in the NFL this season, and Daniel Jones looks exactly like you\u2019d expect a 30-year-old coming off a torn Achilles to look. This is also not the same dominant offensive line you\u2019re used to. It\u2019s hard to find fault with the Vikings this week, or any week for that matter. <\/p>\n
RankTier Two DSTsOpponent2New York Jetsvs MIA3Houston Texansvs NYG4Cleveland Brownsat TEN5Seattle Seahawksvs KC6Denver Broncosat ARI<\/p>\n
Yes, I know it\u2019s a bit odd to have the Jets this high. I have thought it over four or five times, but with everything I\u2019ve learned about what stats are most relevant to fantasy DST success, the Jets keep coming up this high. They are 4th in explosive play rate allowed and 7th in points per game allowed, which is solid, but the key to this matchup is Miami\u2019s offense. The Dolphins have an implied team total of 17, which is the second-lowest on the slate, and their offense gives up sacks on 9.7% of dropbacks, which is tied for 4th-highest in the league. They also turn the ball over at a 17% clip, which is third-highest in the league. So, yes, the Jets\u2019 defense has been uneven, but they are currently the 11th-best fantasy defense, and they have risen to the occasion against bad offense. They have allowed over 380 yards three times but fewer than 200 in the other three games. I think this is set to be one of those games where the defense delivers. <\/p>\n
Houston\u2019s numbers are not at all what we expected coming into the season. So far, they rank 14th in pressure rate, 15th in first downs allowed, and 19th in points per game allowed. That\u2019s not the dominant defense we saw last year. However, they delivered for us two weeks ago in a plus matchup and could do the same this week against a Giants team that has an implied total of 16.25 points, which is the lowest on the slate. The Giants offense has also been sacked on 7.8% of dropbacks, eighth-highest, and turns it over at the ninth-highest rate in the league. That likely won\u2019t change regardless of whether it\u2019s Jameis Winston or J.J. McCarthy at quarterback. I don\u2019t love that Houston is likely without Jalen Pitre and Reed Blankenship, but I\u2019m not sure it will matter too much. <\/p>\n
This game is another one that figures to be a rock fight. Cleveland is 4th in the league in pressure rate and 6th in points per game allowed. Tennessee\u2019s offense has an implied team total of 17.5, which is one of the lowest on the slate, and they are below average in both sack rate allowed and turnover rate. The Browns held Baltimore to 235 yards last week, which was the second straight game the Browns have held an offense under 300 yards. Yes, Mason Graham and Grant Delpit are likely out, which isn\u2019t ideal, but I think the Browns are in for another solid outing. <\/p>\n
This is a tough ranking, because I like the Seahawks defense, but I also acknowledge that the Chiefs offense is good. Of course, some of that depends on if Rashee Rice plays or not. On the year, Seattle is 2nd in explosive-play rate allowed, 3rd in third-down conversion rate, 3rd in first downs allowed per game, 3rd in pressure rate, and 6th in points allowed. That\u2019s a really good defense. However, Patrick Mahomes has been sacked on only 3.4% of dropbacks, and the Chiefs offense turns the ball over 5.5% of the time, so this is not really a matchup we want to target. Still, the Chiefs have an implied team total of just 20 points, and could be without two starting linemen in Josh Simmons and Jaylon Moore. I keep thinking about moving the Seahawks down, but I\u2019m having a hard time doing it. <\/p>\n
Yes, the Cardinals just beat the Rams and held the Rams DST to three fantasy points, but I\u2019m still OK going with Denver here. The Broncos are just a better defense. They are currently 3rd in fantasy points per game, 4th in pressure rate, and 6th in turnover rate. They have five sacks in each of the last two games and forced three turnovers on Thursday against a Seahawks offense I think is far superior to the Cardinals. Arizona has an implied team total of 19, which is seventh-lowest on the slate, and they could be without all of left tackle Paris Johnson Jr., guard Isaiah Adams and RB Jeremiyah Love (3.0 credit). There is also a chance that the Broncos could get Pat Surtain II back this week, which would be another bump.<\/p>\n
RankTier Three DSTsOpponent7Kansas City Chiefsat SEA8Pittsburgh Steelersat NO9Carolina Panthersvs TB10Tennessee Titansvs CLE11Chicago Bearsvs NE12San Francisco 49ersat ATL13Miami Dolphinsat NYJ14Dallas Cowboysat PHI<\/p>\n
The Chiefs have been a solid defense again this season. They are 2nd in the league in points allowed, 4th in turnover rate, 5th in explosive-play rate, and are currently the 4th-ranked defense in fantasy. While Seattle is a good offense, they are also a turnover-prone one, with a 16.2% turnover rate that is 6th-highest in the league. Seattle has an implied team total of 22.5, which is a solid overall total, but their running game was held in check last week against the Broncos, and Emanuel Wilson is a fairly average starter. The Chiefs will likely need sacks or turnovers here, but I think they can get them. <\/p>\n
The Steelers are 5th in the NFL third-down conversion rate, 6th in first downs allowed per game, and 7th in turnover rate. All of that has them tied with the Chiefs as the 4th-best defense in fantasy. They also get a solid matchup against a Saints offense that is regressing as Tyler Shough plays through broken bones in his non-throwing hand. New Orleans turns it over on 16.2% of drives, which is tied for the 6th-highest in the league and will likely be missing Travis Etienne, Kelvin Banks Jr., Dillon Radunz, and Cesar Ruiz. If the Steelers can get any of Derrick Harmon, Jamel Dean, or DeShon Elliott back for this week, that would be another boost. <\/p>\n
Yes, Carolina is another defense that let us down in what we thought was a pretty solid spot against the Eagles last week. However, they could get another good spot here if Baker Mayfield doesn\u2019t return. As of now, I am expecting another week of Jaylon Daniels after Bucs head coach Todd Bowles said Mayfield could practice for the first time on Wednesday, but the team will prepare for Daniels to play. On the season, the Panthers rank 6th in pressure rate, and Tampa Bay has given up sacks on 10.2% of dropbacks, which is the 3rd-highest rate in the league. The Panthers are also 8th in explosive play rate allowed and currently tied for the 11th-best fantasy defense. The Bucs also have a 15.9% turnover rate, which is 8th-highest in the league. If Baker sits, I do still like this play for the Panthers. If Baker plays, I\u2019d probably move the Panthers to the bottom of this tier or maybe just ahead of the Dolphins.<\/p>\n
I don\u2019t love the Titans this week, but I do think they are playable, and the consensus ranks say otherwise. The Titans\u2019 defense itself isn\u2019t great. They rank 28th in both pressure and turnover rate, which is not usually the profile we look for in a fantasy defense. Yet, despite that, they\u2019re actually the 13th-ranked defense in fantasy, averaging 6.5 fantasy points per game. They also get a matchup against a Browns team that is sacked on 12.1% of dropbacks, which is the highest rate in the league. Deshaun Watson has been sacked five times in two straight games, and the Browns have an implied team total of just 20 points, which is 6th-lowest on the slate. The Titans forced three turnovers last week, so they have shown the ability to make a big play, and I think they could do enough to sneak into the top ten this week.<\/p>\n
This is another play that could come down to matchups. On their own, Chicago is a fine defense. They rank 2nd in third-down conversion rate, 2nd in first downs allowed per game, and 5th in points allowed. They\u2019re not an elite sack or turnover defense, which isn\u2019t ideal, but New England\u2019s offense has the highest turnover rate in the league at 20.6%. New England also lost Romeo Doubs to injury on Sunday, as well as four offensive linemen, and they were already without starting guard Michael Onwenu. Kyler Gordon returned from injury this week, and the Bears had five sacks and forced three turnovers while holding a good Atlanta offense to 257 yards. On a short week, it may be hard for the Patriots linemen to all get back in time for this game, which could make the Bears a pretty interesting play. <\/p>\n
The 49ers have not been a great fantasy defense, but they have remained a solid overall unit despite some big injuries. They lead the league in explosive-play rate allowed, are 3rd in points allowed per, and 4th in first downs allowed per game. Those things don\u2019t always lead ot fantasy success, but they do suggest a defense that keeps opponents from taking over a game, and the 49ers are the 8th-best defense in fantasy, so it\u2019s been solid enough production. Atlanta\u2019s offense is sacked on 8.4% of dropbacks, which is the 7th-highest) and they turn the ball over at the 9th-highest rate; however, those stats are skewed by the time that Cooper Rush spent at quarterback. Still, we saw the Falcons offense struggle last week, so they are not impervious to bad games, even with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback. Atlanta has an implied team total of 23, and the 49ers should get Nick Bosa back this week, so I think they could be a solid floor play. <\/p>\n
Like the Titans, Miami\u2019s own numbers are not great. They rank 27th in third-down conversion rate, 28th in fantasy points per game, and have allowed 24 or more points in four of five games and over 305 yards in all five. That\u2019s not good. Yet, Vegas gives the Jets an implied total of just 21.5. The Jets also allowed a sack on 9.7% of dropbacks, which is the fourth-highest rate in the league. If Breece Hall, Adonai Mitchell and Dylan Parham remain out, then I think Miami might be a usable defense in deeper leagues. If either Hall or Mitchell returns, I\u2019m likely moving the Dolphins down a tier. <\/p>\n
Oh look, another defense ranking fueled by injuries. Dallas is 26th in the league in turnover rate, 28th in third-down conversion rate, and 27th in fantasy points per game. They also allow 26.5 points per game, which is 23rd in the league. Yet, this is an Eagles offense that is without Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Lane Johnson, and Cam Jurgens. Vegas gives the Eagles an implied team total of just 20. Tanner McKee didn\u2019t make many mistakes against the Panthers, but he looked brutal when he was pressured and took a lot of sacks that Hurts would not have. I don\u2019t feel good about having the Cowboys this high, but it does make some sense to me if Saquon is not able to return. <\/p>\n
RankTier Four DSTsOpponent15Los Angeles Ramsat LV16New England Patriotsat CHI17Baltimore Ravensvs CIN18Tampa Bay Bucsat CAR19Las Vegas Raidersvs LAR20New Orleans Saintsvs PIT21Indianapolis Coltsat MIN22Cincinnati Bengalsat BAL<\/p>\n
Defenses ranked this low may be intriguing, but I can\u2019t consider playing them outside of the deepest formats.<\/p>\n
The Rams really let us down last week against the Cardinals, and then they also lost Kobie Turner and Poona Ford in the process. On the season, the Rams are 6th in third-down conversion rate and 9th in first downs allowed, but they\u2019re not a top ten defense in any meaningful stat that I use. On top of that, the Raiders are not a great matchup. They allow sacks on just 3.4% of dropbacks, which is the third-lowest rate in the NFL, and they have an implied total of 20.5, which is the 10th-lowest on the slate. So the Rams may keep this lower scoring, but they may not rack up many sacks, especially with Myles Garrett out, and this doesn\u2019t feel like a high-ceiling play. <\/p>\n
The Patriots defense clearly does some good things. They are 5th in the league in points allowed, 6th in first downs allowed, and 11th in third-down conversion rate, which has allowed them to be the 8th-best defense at 7.2 fantasy points per game. The issue is that we have the 8th-best defense going up against a Bears offense that has not been friendly to fantasy defenses when Caleb Williams plays. The Bears\u2019 26.75 implied total is the highest on the board, and the Patriots are on a short week with Carlton Davis potentially out again. Factor in that the Bears could get Kyle Monangai back, and the Patriots lost four offensive linemen to injury on Sunday who have just three days to get healthy in time to suit up on Thursday night, and I think this could be a bit of a messy game for the Pats.<\/p>\n
The Raiders get a little boost with Davante Adams suffering a major injury, but not enough to move them farther up these rankings, and the Bengals are ranked here assuming that Lamar Jackson will return for this pivotal divisional match. <\/p>\n
RankTier Five DSTsOpponent23Arizona Cardinalsvs DEN24Philadelphia Eaglesvs DAL25New York Giantsat HOU26Detroit Lionsvs GB27Green Bay Packersat DET28Atlanta Falconsvs SF29Washington CommandersBYE30Los Angeles ChargersBYE31Buffalo BillsBYE32Jacksonville JaguarsBYE<\/p>\n
As always, I can\u2019t recommend playing any defense that you see here in Tier 5.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Last week\u2019s defense rankings were a mixed bag again, though slightly better than in Week 5. Five of…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":935198,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[559],"tags":[64,63,593,85],"class_list":["post-935197","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nfl","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-nfl","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/935197","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=935197"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/935197\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/935198"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=935197"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=935197"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=935197"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}