{"id":938939,"date":"2026-10-24T06:08:23","date_gmt":"2026-10-24T06:08:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/938939\/"},"modified":"2026-10-24T06:08:23","modified_gmt":"2026-10-24T06:08:23","slug":"the-starting-pitcher-market-rundown-trades-edition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/938939\/","title":{"rendered":"The starting pitcher market rundown, trades edition"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Earlier in the week, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mccoveychronicles.com\/san-francisco-giants-analysis\/112234\/sf-giants-news-analysis-which-free-agent-starting-pitchers-would-be-great-fit-tarik-skubal-no-patrick-sandoval-maybe\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">I went through the pure free agents coming up this offseason<\/a>. Now, why didn\u2019t I speculate about those with opt-outs and options? Well, it\u2019s because with a potential salary cap I think maybe some of these club options become more valuable, and maybe some of the player options, too. A salary cap is likely to suppress salaries going forward, but these recent market rate deals might help teams make a floor or fit into under a cap, especially if the deal is from 2-3 free agent markets ago \u2014 inflation counts! The Giants can, of course, afford every free agent, but they can easily afford any of these options, too. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mccoveychronicles.com\/post\/PbiMGUpmIUhF\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">They even have the trade capital<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">So, this is another long list of obvious targets. I don\u2019t know what names Zack Minasian has on his pro scouting ledger who might prove just as valuable (your Anthony Molinas and Cesar Perdomos) or who the Giants might be considering to plug into the rotation next year at some point (Jackson Flora? Jacob Bresnahan?) but, this is a little bit different from that list of pure free agents.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Rather than looking at 2 or even 3 starters who could provide a minimum of 100 quality innings (again, think like the Justin Verlander deal in 2025), I think a trade would necessarily involve a pitcher who could be projected to provide more than that and over a longer term, not only to pair with Logan Webb \u2014 a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mccoveychronicles.com\/san-francisco-giants-analysis\/112235\/ditching-kevin-gausman-the-final-analysis-sf-giants\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">s the team has done or at least tried to do since 2022<\/a> \u2014 but also to possibly succeed him when they let him walk after 2028. I also think a combination of a pure free agent and a trade would be the most effective way to build up the rotation again, and a stronger rotation ought to make it easier to make the bullpen better in a hurry.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">So, let\u2019s look at some guys who are plausibly available via trade and, therefore, starting pitchers the Giants could acquire who could stick around for more than a season. But! Some of these players are likely to simply have options declined or opt out, making them free agents.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Arizona\u2019s final payroll rankings for the past three seasons (<a href=\"https:\/\/legacy.baseballprospectus.com\/compensation\/cots\/nl-west\/arizona-diamondbacks\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">per Cot\u2019s MLB Contracts<\/a>):<\/p>\n<p>2024: $223.74 million (13th in MLB)2025: $216.10 million (14th in MLB)2026: $230.00 million (12th in MLB)<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">So, they\u2019re no slouches on the payroll tip, but in each of those three seasons they\u2019ve carried, effectively, dead money thanks to starting pitching injuries. In 2024 &amp; 2025 it was the injured corpse of Jordan Montgomery (~$40 million), and in 2025 &amp; 2026, it was the TJ\u2019d husk of Corbin Burnes (~$62 million).<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Following a successful run as a Brewer (45-27, 3.26 ERA in 709.1 IP from 2018-2023) and Oriole (15-9, 2.92 ERA in 194.1 IP in 2024), he\u2019s thrown just 74.2 IP for the Diamomdbacks across two seasons and 14 starts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">His post-surgery rehab schedule made him available by this season\u2019s end, and Arizona tried him out to see if he might be able to give them some innings and possibly get them into the postseason. It didn\u2019t pan out. After a solid start (0 runs, 2 hits, 2 walks, 2 strikeouts; 57 pitches in a 3-inning appearance on September 8th), he came apart, allowing 9 runs (all earned) in 7.1 IP in just two more appearances. Five home runs allowed. His season ended on the IL with shoulder inflammation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">He will not opt out of the final four years on his deal ($32.91 million AAV, $24 million in real money annually with $11 million a year deferred to 2033-2036). It\u2019s likely that Arizona will seek some salary relief if only to move some of that money around to help other areas of their roster. The Giants kicked the tires (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mccoveychronicles.com\/2024\/12\/27\/24293861\/what-is-sf-giants-offer-on-the-table-for-corbin-burnes\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">briefly<\/a>) when he was last available.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">So, look at this as a 4-year, $96 million deal for the age 32-35 seasons of a guy who hasn\u2019t yet cracked 1,000 innings \u2014 although, that\u2019s because he\u2019s run into the injury bug as he\u2019s approached that threshold. Still, before he landed in Arizona, he had five straight seasons of receiving Cy Young votes and even won it back in 2021. Of course, the Giants are coming off a terrible year of arm injuries for their pitchers and might not be interested in taking on another patient.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Now, I\u2019m going to say that I think the chances of there being a salary cap are still probably well below 50%, but he\u2019s the exact type of player likely to be impacted by it in the short-term. He has a very interesting pair of opt outs he can exercise after this or next season. If he doesn\u2019t opt out this offseason, he\u2019ll make $28 million in 2027. If he opts out this offseason, the Padres will pay him $5 million as a buyout. And if he opts in, he can opt out again or stick around for 2028 and earn $30 million (no buyout if he opts out). A very tricky decision. Less because of the potential salary cap and more because he\u2019s, essentially, contracted for his age 32 and 33 seasons for $58 million \u2014 if he wants that. Is he going to be able to get a 4-5 year deal, cap or no cap? If we just double it, does he get a 4-year, $116 million from somebody?<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">King has been good for San Diego (they got him in the Juan Soto trade with the Yankees) with a 3.15 ERA (3.86 FIP) in 78 games (77 starts) and 432 IP. Left knee inflammation ate into his 2025 season (just 73.1 IP), but he has been their ace. It\u2019s unclear if he\u2019ll opt out (though, admittedly, likely) and, despite the Robbie Ray deal, it\u2019s unlikely the Padres would trade their current ace to the Giants. The Padres have new, young owners who spent a lot of money to get the team. They might want to keep the stadium full, but they also might want AJ Preller to curtail spending a bit. He could be on the trade block even if he does opt in.<\/p>\n<p>Clay Holmes (technically, a player option)<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">He made $13 million this season but his player option is for $12 million, which might be reason enough for him to decline it. But, heading into his age-34 season and coming off a post-acquisition performance (the Mets traded him to the Cubs for their playoff push) that was simply not good (4.25 ERA \/4.09 FIP in 48.2 IP, 6.1 K\/9, 4.4 BB\/9), it\u2019s plausible that he uses it and becomes a trade chit for Chicago. He is, basically, a lesser version of Logan Webb. He has a higher career groundball rate than Webb (62.3% vs. 56.3%) but he walks way more (3.89 BB\/9 vs. Webb\u2019s 2.14 career). But, he has the 93 mph sinker-sweeper combo that\u2019s similar. He has three inches and 20 pounds on Webb, too, and has only gone back to starting pitching recently (he was a reliever from 2018-2024) so his innings count is low. It\u2019s unclear if he will opt out. <\/p>\n<p>Luis Severino (technically, a player option)<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">I\u2019m sure he wants to get far away from West Sacramento \u2014 4.43 ERA in 225.1 IP overall in his two seasons with the Athletics, but a 5.85 \/ 3.14 Home\/Road ERA split \u2014 and there\u2019s still plenty of stuff in his arsenal (96-98 with two fastballs, a great sweeper and an effective-ish cutter), but he might find it difficult to match or beat the $22 million he\u2019ll be owed in 2027 ($22.333 CBT figure) even in his age-33 season. He\u2019s another guy who\u2019s running into the injury bug as he crosses into his 30s and exceeds 1,000 innings, and his 2026 season ended in a somewhat alarming way with a right shoulder strain impacting the shoulder capsule and subscapularis muscle. In terms of a Giants-Athletics trade, I think at this point, neither organization gives a heck about optics. He is unlikely to opt out, but the Athletics will almost certainly be willing to trade him. <\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">He will not be opting out because he\u2019ll be recovering from Tommy John surgery throughout 2027 for $24 million. He\u2019ll also be owed $24 million the following season. I\u2019m sure Toronto would love to move the salary.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mccoveychronicles.com\/san-francisco-giants-roster\/102454\/all-in-on-tatsuya-imai-giants-free-agency-2025\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Not that long ago<\/a>, he was a highly sought after starting pitcher. He did not finish the season in Houston\u2019s rotation and hit the IL in April due to arm fatigue. Another foreign league transfer to flop or first year jitters combined with misuse and poor development from a franchise that\u2019s very much at a crossroads? I\u2019m inclined to go with the latter. First, though, he will not opt out of his 2 years and $36 million remaining. He is unlikely to improve upon that in free agency, cap or no cap.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Would the Astros trade him is the question? After all, he did get a lot better once they stuck him in the bullpen (2.00 ERA in 18 IP with 25 K against 11 strikeouts and only two extra base hits allowed \u2014 a pair of doubles). I\u2019ve got to believe they\u2019d be open to it, in which case there\u2019s a case to be made that he\u2019d be an intriguing addition to the Giants\u2019 rotation. That\u2019s not a terrible AAV ($18 million) for just two seasons and a guy\u2019s age-29 and age-30 seasons. It\u2019d sync up with Logan Webb\u2019s remaining time, too. They have some similarities: a sinker-slider combo (though, Imai has more velocity).<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Just looking at Statcast, he seems to use his four-seamer to try to get a strikeout, but his two most effective pitches are his sinker (.182 batting average against) and slider (.167, 39.7% Whiff rate). But, he also threw a splitter, a changeup, and curveball. He stopped throwing his sinker mid-season, too, and that was after he came off the IL. Could that be because the Astros had one of the worst defenses in the sport and wanted to limit balls in play? Unclear. So, there\u2019s an effective pitch mix in here. And, it\u2019s worth noting that Statcast, based on his velocity and movement, compares him to these Giants-y pitchers: Luis Castillo, Cal Quantrill, and Adrian Houser.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Because he managed to stay healthy, the 30-year old righty <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mlbtraderumors.com\/2026\/09\/the-rays-biggest-offseason-decision.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">has increased the Rays\u2019 2027 option to $20 million<\/a>. The Rays recently declined options on some players we figured they\u2019d trade so maybe there is a change in their decision-making giving revenue streams and the risk of an increased budget if they can\u2019t find a trade partner or whatever, and I doubt this World Series appearance will meaningfully impact that, but it\u2019s worth pointing out that Rasmussen was the seventh-most valuable starting pitcher in MLB this season. His 5 fWAR trailed The Miz (6.6), Cristopher Sanchez (6.2), Cam Schlittler (6.2), Chris Sale (5.8), Jesus Luzardo (5.5), and Dylan Cease (5.5). The Rays will be picking up this option. It\u2019s also only for 1 year, and the Giants will (and should) want to trade for players who\u2019ll be around for multiple years.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Because he spent more than 130 consecutive days on the IL (right elbow flexor strain), <a href=\"https:\/\/go.skimresources.com\/?id=87443X1797504&amp;xs=1&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.mlb.com%2Fnews%2Fnick-pivetta-s-player-option-now-a-team-option-for-2027\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">his opt out converted into a $14 million team option<\/a>! I could envision the Padres trading King or Pivetta, but not both, and then it comes down to the risk appetite for a 34-year old coming off elbow problems that persisted into his rehab. The Padres will pick up his option, but the Giants shouldn\u2019t be interested. They had their chance to sign him last offseason (he was one of the last free agents standing).<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">It\u2019s a reasonable $21 million option for a former ace who has returned from Tommy John as a #2 or #3 type. He pitched an MLB-leading 214 innings in 2026, averaged 97.6 mph with his fastball, but struck out just 6.4 per 9 (though walked just 2.5 per 9). A 3.87 ERA (4.08 FIP) and 3.2 fWAR. Slightly undervalued by that contract by a few million, but otherwise, a good trade candidate, since the Marlins will pick up his option and try to move him. But with just one year on the deal, the Giants ought to be out.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Maybe I shouldn\u2019t be so quick to dismiss these one-year deals, though. There\u2019s certainly utility in trading for them if they\u2019re a part of a larger haul or a three-team deal, or even if another team is just wanting to do a bit of a salary dump\/reconfiguration. The Giants, who have no expectations, are in a great position to explore every avenue for acquisition. Speaking of\u2026<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">The Cubs have a $7.5 million club option on the righty (with a $1 million buyout), who will play his age-36 season in 2027, both of which seems not terrible for an innings-eater type; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bleedcubbieblue.com\/chicago-cubs-discussion\/236249\/cubs-bcb-after-dark-should-the-cubs-pick-up-colin-reas-option\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">but, fellow SB Nation site Bleed Cubbie Blue readers said \u201cNo\u201d to that option in this poll<\/a> and so I\u2019ll go with the wisdom of the crowd here to say he\u2019ll be available. Plus, the Cubs need to improve their pitching significantly if they\u2019re going to be meaningfully competitive in the next couple of seasons and, despite printing money, they\u2019ll likely prefer moving some of their current budget around to achieve their goals rather than increase it.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">But the Giants? They\u2019re just marking time until they win the talent lottery and all of the usual competition gets worse. He might be a perfect back-end starter for a team that\u2019ll need starting pitching innings. Since returning from Japan in 2023: 124.2 IP, 167.2 IP, 159.1 IP, and 137 IP. The Cubs probably won\u2019t pick up his option, which means the Giants wouldn\u2019t have to trade for him \u2014 so, why is he on this list at all? Well, what, you\u2019d rather I put him as a free agent? What if I\u2019m wrong?<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Now, most mutual options are not picked up. They are almost always sops to the player from the front office to show that they\u2019re interested in the player to a degree but are hoping that the player can see the writing on the wall by the time the mutual decision must be made. So, these are most likely just pure free agents who have to go through one extra step to get there, but I\u2019m including them in this post because you never know! The threat of a lockout and the short-term nature of these options might just compel players and teams alike to seek a bit more certainty.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">It\u2019s a $30 million mutual option with a $10 million buyout, which I assume only comes into play if Boston declines it. If that\u2019s the case, then Gray has to pick up the option on his end, right? He would have the chance to get $10 million plus whatever free agent deal might be out there. Even a 1-year, $25 million deal puts him ahead for the season. He made a ton of sense for the Giants back when I wouldn\u2019t <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mccoveychronicles.com\/2023\/11\/9\/23954777\/giants-free-agency-contract-projections-shohei-ohtani-yoshinobu-yamamoto-cody-bellinger-matt-chapman\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">shut up<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mccoveychronicles.com\/2024\/11\/25\/24304234\/san-francisco-giants-free-agent-pitching-targets-using-win-loss-percentage-jeff-berry-comments\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">about<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mccoveychronicles.com\/2024\/11\/20\/24301006\/3-offseason-moves-the-san-francisco-giants-need-to-make-2024-2025-offseason\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">him<\/a>, but I think that ship has sailed. He\u2019ll be 37 and as good as he was in 2026 (18-5, 2.72 ERA, 3.4 fWAR), he missed time with a hamstring injury (just 169 IP) and his fastball velocity dipped for the third consecutive season.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">The Cubs are likely to decline this $15 million mutual option ($2 million buyout), but if they do pick it up, he\u2019s already been a Giant and he seems like he\u2019d cost a lot for the type of pitcher they don\u2019t really want in the starting rotation: a low strikeout (6.8 K\/9 in 2026), low groundball guy (42.2 GB%). Even from the left side, it doesn\u2019t seem like there\u2019s a worthwhile trade here.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Another $20 million mutual option that seems the Rays would decline. I could see them keeping Rasmussen or Martinez, but not both, and Martinez is an interloper. He\u2019s wound up being a great free agent pickup, but it\u2019s unlikely they\u2019d have an easy time of finding a trade partner for a soft-tossing righty and so might want to avoid burdening the payroll with such uncertainty. 2027 will be his age-36 season, too. And, I failed to mention above, but it\u2019s tough to trade with the Rays. Even in a salary relief situation, they are likely to extract a player the Giants might actually need more in the near-term.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Another $20 million mutual option ($500,000 buyout) that I feel certain the Brewers will decline. Whether or not they win this World Series, he wasn\u2019t good for them after they acquired him from St. Louis (5.65 ERA in 36.2 IP) and he hasn\u2019t been in the postseason (6.43 ERA in 7 IP).<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">As a pure free agent addition, he\u2019s not particularly intriguin,g either. Since returning from Tommy John, he has a 4.82 ERA in 278 IP for four teams (Dodgers, Red Sox, Cardinals, and Brewers). He\u2019ll be just 29, though, and has a live fastball (96+), still gets strikeouts and doesn\u2019t walk too many batters.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">I presume that Soroka will decline this $10 million mutual option, because he had a good season to reestablish his value. He really broke out there in 2019 at the age of 21 when he went 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA in 29 starts, was an All-Star, got Cy Young votes, and came in second for Rookie of the Year. But then he was hurt for all of 2021 and 2022 and before this season he pitched for four teams (Atlanta, both Chicago teams, and the Nats) and was 5-21 with a 4.85 ERA in 215.1 IP, primarily as a reliever. He\u2019ll be 29 to start next season (unless the season begins mid-August, which, gulp). The real problem is that he did miss time with arm troubles: right arm inflammation in August.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">The Padres are not so desperate for SP help that they\u2019ll pick up their end of the mutual option and the Giants are not so desperate for veteran depth that they\u2019ll sign another after-30 starter with arm troubles who has been in a steep decline since the start of the 2022 season (4.49 ERA \/ 4.63 FIP in 520.2 IP).<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">He is another starter the Padres signed in the offseason to provide warm bodies for their rotation, along with Giolito, German Marquez, and Walker Buehler. They needed numbers which is why they opted to spread the money around. Canning was used as either a starter or bulk reliever through his first 16 appearances, but after that, he was firmly a reliever who came in during blowouts in either direction. Over his final 14 appearances, he had a 3.04 ERA in 23.2 IP (3.90 FIP).<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">In 2025, he was exclusively a starter for the Mets but his season was cut short (just 16 GS) by a left Achilles rupture. If you jump back to those numbers, he seems a little Giants-y: a 94 mph fastball (four-seam) with a high-spin slider (2,736 rpm). The option is for just $5 million so, I don\u2019t know, maybe San Diego picks it up as a depth piece just because there\u2019s a little bit of positive projection in the profile. I would think maybe it becomes tradeable if AJ Preller is able to get into some big transaction and the Giants have decided to keep their powder dry for most of the offseason.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">I\u2019m sure the organization doesn\u2019t like Gabe Kapler any more than it likes Farhan Zaidi, but Littell\u2019s public protest has to be a sticking point, right? Also, it\u2019s not difficult to improve upon Littell in trade or free agency. Technically, he\u2019s a pure free agent now, as ARizona released him back in August, but MLB.com still has that mutual option attached, so, my mistake.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Rehabbing from Tommy John for most of next season. Baltimore will decline the option, too, as it\u2019s for $25 million.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Okay, after exhausting all of those option options, let\u2019s just take a look at who\u2019s left: players we can imagine being available just because of arbitration. Now, the entire point of arbitration is to make the cost of players still under team control predictable\/projectable, but what usually happens is that teams find out they have other needs that can\u2019t be addressed through draft &amp; development or even cost too much in free agency and so trades become important. To be clear, I don\u2019t think all of these players are on the trade block, I\u2019m just noting that arbitration-eligible players tend to be the more tradeable types out there for execs trying to take a big swing.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">For example, the Mariners have fifteen arbitration-eligible players, including:<\/p>\n<p>Logan Gilbert ($15.4 million arbitration projection)<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Most likely to be traded given that he (1) makes the most of the group (2) will be in his age-30 season (3) has already crossed 1,000 MLB innings \u2014 and had the accompanying injury: a flexor strain of his right elbow in 2025 and (4) is trending upwards in walk and home run rates (a career-high 3.83 FIP).<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Now, would the Giants go, \u201cYessir, Mr. Dipoto. Drop your castoff directly into my spreadsheet!\u201d Probably not, and mainly because it\u2019s his final year of arbitration. Plus, as with a lot of these trades, where\u2019s the requisite value? Gilbert is in decline, but a 3-WAR player for a 1.5-WAR player (Jung Hoo Lee, let\u2019s say) doesn\u2019t make a lot of sense for Seattle. But then, is a Harrison Bader\u2019s un-voidable contract, a top 20 prospect, and another prospect for Gilbert a worthwhile investment for the Giants? Even if they had it in mind that they could trade him at the deadline when the season drives into a ditch again?<\/p>\n<p>George Kirby ($9.8 million)<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">With two years of arbitration, a Kirby trade feels a little more realistic. Looking at his Statcast and it looks like there\u2019s a potential fix just with the pitch mix; but, his 7.6 K\/9 is (1) really bad and (2) a huge decline from 2025 (9.8) and well below his career average in his first four seasons (8.8). He\u2019s also at 812.1 career innings, which puts him right on the precipice of having his first big injury. Oh wait, he experienced that last season when he hit the IL before the start of the season with right shoulder inflammation. Is that injury plus this year\u2019s steep decline a sign that he\u2019s on the verge of a major injury?<\/p>\n<p>Bryce Miller ($6.075 million club option or $3.9 million arb projection)<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Miller also missed time in 2025 with right elbow inflammation and this season he missed time with a left oblique strain. In his first two MLB seasons (2023 and 2024), he had a 3.52 ERA in 311.2 IP, an 8.4 K\/9 and 2.1 BB\/9. With his injury-shortened 2025 and 2026, he has a 4.82 ERA in 209 IP, an 8.3 K\/9 and 3.1 BB\/9. He amassed 4.6 fWAR in those first two seasons and just 0.9 total the past two seasons. It seems likely that the Mariners will decline their option and negotiate with him with the arbitration pressure. Or, they could simply trade him and the three years of team control for prospects.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">He\u2019s got a great arsenal that has been quite effective in his MLB time, <a href=\"https:\/\/baseballsavant.mlb.com\/savant-player\/bryce-miller-682243?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">including this season<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Do I want the Giants to hoard as many Bryan with Ys and Cal Poly grads as possible? Absolutely. Woo would qualify. He\u2019d be a great fit, along with the three years of team control. He\u2019s already amassed 10.9 fWAR in his 3+ seasons of MLB. But if you look at his 2025 &amp; 2026, well\u2026<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Top 10 pitchers by fWAR, 2025-2026<\/p>\n<p>Cristopher Sanchez, PHI \u2014 12.7 fWARTarik Skubal, DET &amp; LAD \u2014 11.9Jesus Luzardo, PHI \u2014 10.9Paul Skenes \u2014 10.7Yoshinobu Yamamoto \u2014 9.6Dylan Cease, SD &amp; TOR \u2014 8.9Logan Webb, SF \u2014 8.6Bryan Woo, SEA \u2014 7.7Jacob deGrom, TEX \u2014 7.7Kevin Gausman \u2014 TOR &amp; CHC \u2014 7.2<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">To acquire a player who has already amassed 10.9 fWAR in 3+ seasons of MLB and has been the 8th-most valuable SP of the past two seasons (7.7 fWAR \u2014 trailing Logan Webband would be in his age 27-29 seasons would take a good amount of talent.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Jerry Dipoto\u2019s seat should be white hot. He\u2019s got to do something. The Mariners scored (5) fewer runs than literally the Giants and (2) fewer than literally the Reds. Only the Angels (655) and Blue Jays (648) scored fewer runs than the Mariners\u2019 664. They were also 16th in runs allowed (722) and value (14.2 fWAR). They allowed more runs than the White Sox? The Padres? The Marlins?? These were all teams they were expected to be better than; and, in the case of their pitching, far better.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Susan Slusser suggested him a week and a half ago, citing that that he\u2019ll be entering the final year of his deal in his age-30 season and that the hometown connection (grew up in San Anselmo as a Giants fan) would make it easier to get some sort of a discount on a long-term deal.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Injury hampered his season a bit (down to 144.2 IP versus 171 the year prior), but he\u2019s still thrown just 786 MLB innings and his stuff was exactly the same as its been when he did pitch. He\u2019s been, consistently, a 3-WAR player and he\u2019s set to make around $9 million in 2027.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">But Ryan isn\u2019t the only Twins starter on the last year of a deal, which complicates matters: Pablo Lopez (30, a 3-WAR pitcher when healthy, $21.75MM), Stockton\u2019s Dean Kremer (31, a 2-WAR pitcher when healthy, $7.75MM arb projection), and Bailey Ober (31, a ~2-WAR pitcher when healthy, $7.25MM arb projection) all figure to be on the trade market, and if Taj Bradley (26 and 3 years of team control) is also made available, then it would seem that the Giants would have to offer a lot for potentially not very much. At least in the offseason. Maybe a mid-season trade could materialize if, somehow, the Giants are competitive. Or they could just wait a year for him to become available.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">The Angels opted not to trade him at this past deadline, but with a new ownership group in place there might be a call for drastic measures to improve the club\u2019s standing after its first-ever 100-loss season. Trading away a bright development success and one of the top pitchers in the sport (4.9 fWAR \u2014 9th in MLB) doesn\u2019t make much sense, but at the same time\u2026 looking at Detmers\u2019s cumulative value for his career\u2026 he\u2019s at 11.1 fWAR, the same as MacKenzie Gore for whom the Rangers traded back in January before this season. In that deal, the Washington Nationals got Texas\u2019s #5, #11, #12, #17, and #24 prospects in exchange for Gore and his two years of team control. Detmers also has two years of team control remaining. Does that automatically set the floor at 5 top 30 prospects?<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">If Los Angeheim did that deal today, it would be Ramon Marquez, Henry Lalane, Keyner Martinez, Argenis Cayama, and Yunior Marte. But those are all pitchers, and in the trade, Washington only got back one pitcher.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">But also, the Giants shouldn\u2019t expect to be any good the next two seasons\u2026 at least not to the point that they should be delivering five Top 30 prospects for two years of one starting pitcher. That seems like a foolhardy move that would do more harm than good. But it is intriguing. And Detmers looks like he\u2019s turned his career around. From this FanGraphs piece back in June:<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup _1bij9g79 _1bij9g78 _1mt21p01\">[Detmers\u2019 conversion to a reliever in 2025] This was about as big of a pitching development success as the Angels have had in the 2020s. Again, Detmers was a perfect candidate for this transition, and he executed it flawlessly. That\u2019s why it was odd to hear rumblings of a return to the rotation. Even in the middle of last season, the Angels seemed set on \u2014 and convinced of \u2014 Detmers\u2019 future as a starter. Here\u2019s what former manager <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/players\/ron-washington\/1013658\/stats\/batting\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Ron Washington<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6436974\/2025\/06\/19\/reid-detmers-los-angeles-angels-reliever\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">told The Athletic<\/a> in June 2025:<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">The team could still get creative with other players in arbitration: Bryce Elder (ATL), Kutter Crawford (BOS), Nick Lodolo (CIN), Peter Lambert (HOU), Clarke Schmidt (NYY), Shane McClanahan (TBR), but they\u2019re all in the final year of arbitration and so thinking of them as actual targets doesn\u2019t seem right. The Giants have to behave as though they\u2019re still at least 2-3 years away from being even a tiny bit competitive again and make moves with that timeframe in mind \u2014 not in terms of tanking or keeping their powder dry or whatever, but in simply making sure that their trade or financial commitments are multi-year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">After an extensive thought exercise, I\u2019ve come away with these names as palatable or outright interesting options that don\u2019t push the limits of reality:<\/p>\n<p>Tatsuya ImaiBryce MillerBryan WooReid Detmers<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">This is not an exhaustive list, of course, but it\u2019s a rundown of the most obvious trade targets. Are there obvious ones you think I missed or some under the radar ones you think fans should keep in mind as the offseason nears?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Earlier in the week, I went through the pure free agents coming up this offseason. Now, why didn\u2019t&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":938940,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[558],"tags":[64,63,591,354400,85],"class_list":["post-938939","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-mlb","tag-san-francisco-giants-analysis","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/938939","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=938939"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/938939\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/938940"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=938939"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=938939"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=938939"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}