Not much is happening in the hockey world as we prepare for the last week of August and school restarting next week (at least here in Canada).<\/p>\n
I’m just going to look at some random topics that hopefully will garner some interesting takeaways.<\/p>\n
Mid to Late Draft Round Success Rates (2009 through 2017)<\/p>\n
I thought we could look at players who have made the NHL and played 300 games or more after being drafted in the 4th round or later since 2009.<\/p>\n
We all know the odds are against these players, but we still fall in love with the odd prospect who we keep on our fantasy roster in hopes of them making it.<\/p>\n
We are going to look at the drafts between 2009 and 2017, so we have some fairly accurate determinations of players making that threshold. There is no reason to think that these numbers will drastically change moving into the future.<\/p>\n
Here are some summaries of the numbers.<\/p>\n
Overall percentage of players playing 300 games or more in the NHL, after being drafted in the fourth round or later between 2009 and 2017: 9.96%<\/p>\n
Overall 4th round over 300 GP: 13.9%<\/p>\n
Overall 5th round over 300 GP: 9.6%<\/p>\n
Overall 6th round over 300 GP: 7.3%<\/p>\n
Overall 7th round over 300 GP: 5.0%<\/p>\n
Here is the detail by year:<\/p>\n
2009: Overall 16 of 120 players (13.3%)<\/p>\n
Most points: Anders Lee<\/a> (507 points)<\/p>\n 4th round: 7 of 30 players picked played 200 games or more (23.3%)<\/p>\n Casey Cizikas<\/a> (897 GP), David Savard (870), Craig Smith<\/a> (987), Mattias Ekholm<\/a> (884), Marcus Foligno<\/a> (875), Sami Vatanen (473), and Ben Chiarot<\/a> (723)<\/p>\n 5th round: 4\/30 (13.3%)<\/p>\n Mike Hoffman (745), Gabriel Bourque (413), Marcus Kruger (520), and Nick Jensen<\/a> (633)<\/p>\n 6th round: 2\/30 (6.7%)<\/p>\n Anders Lee<\/a> (841) and Darcy Kuemper<\/a> (439)<\/p>\n 7th round: 3\/30 (10%)<\/p>\n Erik Haula<\/a> (759), Jordan Nolan (375), and Nic Dowd<\/a> (582)<\/p>\n 2010: Overall 12 of 120 (10%)<\/p>\n Most Points: Mark Stone<\/a> (634 pts)<\/p>\n 4th round: 2\/30 (6.7%)<\/p>\n Joonas Donskoi (474), and Philipp Grubauer<\/a> (370)<\/p>\n 5th round: 7\/30 (23.3%)<\/p>\n Chris Wagner (401), Zach Hyman<\/a> (653), John Klingberg<\/a> (644), Micheal Ferland (335), Petr Mrazek<\/a> (428), Sam Carrick<\/a> (320), and Brendan Gallagher<\/a> (834)<\/p>\n 6th round: 2\/30 (6.7%)<\/p>\n Jesper Fast<\/a> (703) and Mark Stone<\/a> (706)<\/p>\n 7th round: 1\/30 (3.3%)<\/p>\n Frederik Andersen<\/a> (517)<\/p>\n 2011: Overall 14 of 120 (11.7%)<\/p>\n Most Points: Johnny Gaudreau (743 pts)<\/p>\n 4th round: 4\/30 (13.3%)<\/p>\n Jean-Gabriel Pageau<\/a> (797), Mike Reilly<\/a> (418), Johnny Gaudreau (763), and Tobias Rieder (478)<\/p>\n 5th round: 3\/30 (10%)<\/p>\n Nick Seeler (373), Sean Kuraly<\/a> (562), and Andrew Shaw (544)<\/p>\n 6th round: 4\/30 (13.3%)<\/p>\n Josh Manson<\/a> (626), Josh Archibald (305), Travis Boyd (299), and Dylan DeMelo<\/a> (636)<\/p>\n 7th round: 3\/30 (10%)<\/p>\n Colin Blackwell<\/a> (298), Ryan Dzingel (404), and Ondrej Palat<\/a> (825)<\/p>\n 2012: Overall 14 of 120 (11.7%)<\/p>\n Most Points: Jaccob Slavin<\/a> (299)<\/p>\n 4th round: 6\/30 (20%)<\/p>\n Josh Anderson<\/a> (616), Cedric Paquette (448), Brett Kulak<\/a> (580), Andreas Athanasiou<\/a> (495), and Jaccob Slavin<\/a> (745)<\/p>\n 5th round: 4\/30 (13.3%)<\/p>\n Connor Hellebuyck<\/a> (568), Ben Hutton (520), Alex Kerfoot<\/a> (605), and Colin Miller<\/a> (572)<\/p>\n 6th round: 4\/30 (13.3%)<\/p>\n Connor Brown<\/a> (601), Linus Ullmark<\/a> (291), Vinny Hinostroza (412), and Matt Benning<\/a> (464)<\/p>\n 7th round (0\/30)<\/p>\n 2013: Overall 11 of 120 (9.2%)<\/p>\n Most Points: Andrew Copp<\/a> (300)<\/p>\n 4th round: 6\/30 (20%)<\/p>\n Juuse Saros<\/a> (408), Miles Wood<\/a> (513), Nick Paul<\/a> (486), Andrew Copp<\/a> (700), Tyler Motte (455), and Ryan Graves<\/a> (433)<\/p>\n 5th round: 2\/30 (6.7%)<\/p>\n Connor Clifton<\/a> (384) and Carson Soucy<\/a> (365)<\/p>\n 6th round: 1\/30 (3.3%)<\/p>\n Josh Brown<\/a> (300)<\/p>\n 7th round: 2\/30 (6.7%)<\/p>\n Dominik Kubalik (357) and MacKenzie Weegar<\/a> (550)<\/p>\n 2014: Overall 14\/120 (11.7%)<\/p>\n Most Points: Viktor Arvidsson<\/a> (389)<\/p>\n 4th round: 6 of 30 (20%)<\/p>\n Devon Toews<\/a> (473), Viktor Arvidsson<\/a> (613), Sam Lafferty<\/a> (349), Danton Heinen<\/a> (566), Michael Bunting<\/a> (344), and Igor Shesterkin<\/a> (274)<\/p>\n 5th round: 3\/30 (10%)<\/p>\n Gustav Forsling<\/a> (477), Dakota Joshua<\/a> (241), and Oskar Lindblom (337)<\/p>\n 6th round: 1\/30 (3.3%)<\/p>\n Kevin Labanc<\/a> (512)<\/p>\n 7th round: 4\/30 (13.3%)<\/p>\n Victor Olofsson<\/a> (370), Pierre Engvall<\/a> (380), Jake Evans<\/a> (350), and Jake Middleton<\/a> (306)<\/p>\n 2015: Overall 15 of 120 (12.5%)<\/p>\n Most Points: Kirill Kaprizov<\/a> (386)<\/p>\n 4th round: 4\/30 (13.3%)<\/p>\n Nicolas Roy<\/a> (369), Alexandre Carrier<\/a> (296), Mathieu Joseph<\/a> (420), and Will Borgen<\/a> (298)<\/p>\n 5th round: 5\/30 (16.7%)<\/p>\n Conor Garland<\/a> (485), Niko Mikkola<\/a> (328), Kirill Kaprizov<\/a> (319), Troy Terry<\/a> (427), and Adam Gaudette<\/a> (301)<\/p>\n 6th round: 4\/30 (13.3%)<\/p>\n John Marino<\/a> (363), Vladislav Gavrikov<\/a> (435), Andrew Mangiapane<\/a> (498), and Mason Appleton<\/a> (400)<\/p>\n 7th round: 2\/30 (6.7%)<\/p>\n Steven Lorentz (310) and Matt Roy<\/a> (438)<\/p>\n 2016: Overall 5 of 120 (4.2%)<\/p>\n Most Points: Jesper Bratt<\/a> (447)<\/p>\n 4th round: 3\/30 (10%)<\/p>\n Brandon Duhaime<\/a> (293), Noah Gregor (293), and Ross Colton<\/a> (331)<\/p>\n 5th round: 0\/30<\/p>\n 6th round: 2\/30 (6.7%)<\/p>\n Brandon Hagel<\/a> (375), and Jesper Bratt<\/a> (552)<\/p>\n 7th round: 0\/30<\/p>\n 2017: Overall 7 of 124 (5.6%)<\/p>\n Most Points: Drake Batherson<\/a> (293)<\/p>\n 4th round: 4\/31 (12.9%)<\/p>\n Jacob Bryson<\/a> (254), Mikey Anderson<\/a> (345), Alexey Toropchenko<\/a> (259), and Drake Batherson<\/a> (391)<\/p>\n 5th round: 1\/31 (3.2%)<\/p>\n Noah Cates<\/a> (235)<\/p>\n 6th round: (2\/31) (6.4%)<\/p>\n Nick Perbix<\/a> (220) and Morgan Barron<\/a> (256)<\/p>\n 7th round: 0\/31<\/p>\n Five Times Teams Traded Away Players that Ended up as Stars in the League<\/p>\n These are just some trades I came across over the years where some players were traded well before they had a chance to become the player they became. Some of the returns were fair, but others were a little shocking.<\/p>\n 1) Jarome Iginla was part of a trade from Dallas to Calgary for Joe Nieuwendyk in December of 1995. He was the 11th overall pick in the 1995 draft after putting up 71 points in 72 games in the WHL. He posted 63 goals and 73 assists in 63 games in 1995-96 in the WHL.<\/p>\n Iginla never played a game in the minors before playing the next 16 seasons with Calgary and posting 525 goals in the regular season in 1,169 games. He ended up with 625 goals and 1,300 points in 1,554 career games. He was inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame.<\/p>\n Nieuwendyk did play another 11 NHL seasons with Dallas, New Jersey and Florida, where he won two Stanley Cups in addition to his cup with Calgary in 1988-89. After the trade, he had 250 goals and 510 points in 680 games.<\/p>\n 2) Roberto Luongo was the 4th overall pick in 1997 for the NY Islanders. He played one year with them in 1999-2000 and had a record of 7-14-1 with a save percentage of .904.<\/p>\n He was traded in June of 2000 to the Florida Panthers with Olli Jokinen for Oleg Kvasha and Mark Parrish.<\/p>\n The Islanders had the first overall pick in the 2000 Entry Draft and took Rick DiPietro.<\/p>\n Luongo played 18 more NHL seasons with Florida and Vancouver, playing 1,020 games and posting a record of 482-378-123. He was inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame.<\/p>\n Jokinen played 1,075 NHL games after the trade with 301 goals and 407 assists.<\/p>\n Parrish played 568 more NHL games with 166 goals and 306 points over nine seasons.<\/p>\n Kvasha played 347 more NHL games with 64 goals and 177 points over five seasons.<\/p>\n DiPietro played 319 NHL games (all with the Islanders) and had a record of 130-136-6 and a save percentage of 90.2. He signed a 15-year $67.5 million deal before the 2006-07 season. He played just 175 NHL games after that over seven years. His last NHL game was in 2012-13.<\/p>\n 3) Filip Forsberg<\/a> was the 11th overall pick in 2012 by the Washington Capitals. They traded him in April 2013 to the Nashville Predators for Martin Erat and Michael Latta.<\/p>\n Forsberg was coming off a year in the SHL, where he had 15 goals and 18 assists in 38 games as a 19-year-old.<\/p>\n He has played the past 13 seasons with the Predators and has produced 318 goals and 681 points in 780 games.<\/p>\n Erat played a total of 62 games with Washington and had two goals and 25 assists. He played 96 NHL games after that with Arizona, where he had 11 goals and 26 assists before heading back to Europe for good.<\/p>\n Latta (a forward) played 113 NHL games, all with the Capitals and posted four goals and 13 assists over three seasons.<\/p>\n 4) Tage Thompson<\/a> was the 26th overall pick in 2016 by the St. Louis Blues. He played 41 games in 2017-18 and had three goals and six assists with the Blues.<\/p>\n He was traded on July 1st of 2018 to the Buffalo Sabres with Patrick Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka and a 1st round pick in 2019 (Ryan Johnson) and a 2nd round pick in 2021 (Ben Roger) to St. Louis for Ryan O’Reilly<\/a>.<\/p>\n Thompson has played 407 games with the Sabres and has 173 goals and 143 assists. He has scored 40 goals or more twice and has a career-high 94 points in 78 games in 2022-23.<\/p>\n Berglund played 23 games for Buffalo in 2018-19 and had two goals and two assists before heading back to Sweden and retiring after 2020-21.<\/p>\n Sobotka played 85 games for Buffalo over two seasons and had six goals and 10 assists before heading back to play in Czechia where he is still playing.<\/p>\n Ryan O’Reilly<\/a> was the centerpiece of this trade and the bottom line is that St. Louis won the Stanley Cup with him in their lineup in 2018-19. He played with the Blues until he was traded to Toronto in 2022-23. In St. Louis he ended up with 97 goals and 172 assists in 327 games.<\/p>\n 5) Nick Suzuki<\/a> was the 13th overall pick in the 2017 draft by the Vegas Golden Knights. He was traded along with Tomas Tatar and a 2nd round pick in 2019 (Samuel Fagemo<\/a>) to the Montreal Canadiens for Max Pacioretty<\/a> in September of 2018.<\/p>\n Suzuki had just posted 100 points in 64 OHL games as an 18-year-old when he was traded. He followed that up with 94 points in 59 OHL games as a 19-year-old.<\/p>\n Since then, he has played 455 NHL games with Montreal and produced 138 goals and 375 points with a career-high of 89 points in 2024-25.<\/p>\n Tatar was productive in his three seasons in Montreal with 57 goals and 149 points in 198 games.<\/p>\n Pacioretty played four seasons in Vegas, playing 214 games with 95 goals and 194 points.<\/p>\n Fantasy Guide<\/a> Sleeper Picks Update<\/p>\n I made my sleeper picks for the Western Conference that were included in Dobber’s 2025-26 Fantasy Guide<\/a>. It was a few weeks back, so I thought I’d look at the players again and see if there are any regrets about including them. I also want to highlight some of the players whom I will double down on.<\/p>\n Andre Burakovsky<\/a> \u2013 Chicago<\/p>\n Burakovsky had a stretch between 2019-20 and 2022-23 where he put up between 0.76 and 0.83 points per game. He has dipped to 0.33 and 0.47 the past two years with Seattle. He has a chance to get some meaningful minutes on a young Chicago team in 2025-26. I’m looking for him to return near that range that he had before. Otherwise, he’ll find himself back in the SHL sooner than later.<\/p>\n Filip Chytil<\/a> \u2013 Vancouver<\/p>\n Chytil needs to avoid injuries in 2025-26, after 106 games over the past three years. Easier said than done. He has a career-high of 22 goals and 23 assists in 74 games during 2022-23 and if he can come close to that output, it will be a very successful campaign for him and the Canucks.<\/p>\n Sean Durzi<\/a> \u2013 Utah<\/p>\n Durzi missed 52 games in 2024-25 and managed 11 points in 30 games. He is unlikely to get his quarterback position back on the first unit of the power play from Mikhail Sergachev<\/a>, but he could certainly compete for the role if that unit struggles out of the gate. Durzi has had two seasons of 38 and 41 points and can get back there if healthy.<\/p>\n Philipp Kurashev<\/a> \u2013 San Jose<\/p>\n Kurashev produced 18 goals and 54 points (0.72 PTS\/GP) in 75 games with Chicago in 2023-24. He has never produced higher than 0.36 points per game in any other season. While I don’t think he can reach 54 points as it was surely an anomaly, I think he could reach 0.5 PTS\/GP and get 35-45 points in San Jose.<\/p>\n Kaapo Kakko<\/a> \u2013 Seattle<\/p>\n Kakko had a career-high of 44 points in 79 games split between the NY Rangers and Seattle in 2024-25. Does he have a higher level of production in 2025-26 with Seattle? Yes and no. He’s going to be hard-pressed to score more than 20 goals, by shooting just 1.5 times per game on goal but he did show that he can pass the puck by setting a career-high of 30 assists last year. If everything clicks for Kakko, I think he can put up 20 goals and 40 assists, but that might be his ceiling in the NHL.<\/p>\n Kaedan Korczak<\/a> \u2013 Vegas<\/p>\n There is no guarantee that Korczak is a regular in the lineup for Vegas in 2025-26, but the injury to Alex Pietrangelo<\/a> won’t hurt his chances. He’s played 77 career games in the NHL with Vegas and has one goal, 20 assists, 127 hits and 80 blocks. He’s never played more than 40 games in a season before, but if he can reach 70, he should put up similar numbers to his career ones.<\/p>\n Have a great last week of summer before the holiday weekend.<\/p>\n Thanks for reading and if you have any questions or players you’d like me to look at, please message or follow me on Twitter<\/a> @gampbler15<\/a>.<\/p>\n