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With 18 teams playing 23 games across 24 weeks, all clubs must play six opponents twice, and these are their \u2018double-up\u2019 opponents. To determine these, the AFL breaks up the ladder into a trio of six-team groups (including finals results), and teams are drawn against group members more often.<\/p>\n
You may think predicting the fixture is pointless, because we can\u2019t perfectly predict how good teams will be next year, but history shows this analysis has a very strong track record.<\/p>\n
Last year we predicted Geelong, Gold Coast and Collingwood to have three of the four hardest draws, and they did, contributing to all three sides declining from the year before.<\/p>\n
We also said the Kangaroos had the easiest fixture, and that came true, with Alastair Clarkson\u2019s side taking full advantage on route to a nine-win season (which included five wins over strugglers Essendon, Richmond and West Coast).<\/p>\n
So which teams are primed to repeat the feat and capitalise on an easier fixture? And who could slide because theirs is that much harder?<\/p>\n
Butters to face Port at Gather Round | 01:56<\/p>\n
Foxfooty.com.au analyses every team\u2019s double-ups, based on those opponents\u2019 2026 percentages (the better metric of team performance compared to pure win-loss record or ladder position), and reveals the winners and losers from the 2027 fixture.<\/p>\n
2027 AFL FIXTURE BRACKETS (Based on 2026 ladder and finals)<\/p>\n
Top six: Fremantle, Sydney, Brisbane, Hawthorn, Geelong, Adelaide<\/p>\n
Middle six: Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, Carlton, St Kilda, GWS<\/p>\n
Bottom six: Gold Coast, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Richmond, Essendon<\/p>\n
EVERY TEAM\u2019S 2027 DOUBLE-UP OPPONENTS<\/p>\n
Adelaide Crows: Fremantle, Geelong, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Richmond, Western Bulldogs<\/p>\n
Brisbane Lions: Collingwood, Fremantle, Geelong, Gold Coast, St Kilda, Sydney<\/p>\n
Carlton: Collingwood, Geelong, GWS Giants, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide<\/p>\n
Collingwood: Brisbane, Carlton, Essendon, Fremantle, Richmond, St Kilda<\/p>\n
Essendon: Collingwood, Geelong, GWS Giants, North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast<\/p>\n
Fremantle: Adelaide, Brisbane, Collingwood, GWS Giants, Hawthorn, West Coast<\/p>\n
Geelong: Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton, Essendon, Hawthorn, St Kilda<\/p>\n
Gold Coast: Brisbane, GWS Giants, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs<\/p>\n
GWS Giants: Carlton, Essendon, Fremantle, Gold Coast, Sydney, Western Bulldogs<\/p>\n
Hawthorn: Fremantle, Geelong, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, Sydney, Western Bulldogs<\/p>\n
Melbourne: Adelaide, Carlton, Port Adelaide, Sydney Swans, West Coast, Western Bulldogs<\/p>\n
North Melbourne: Carlton, Essendon, Gold Coast, Richmond, St Kilda, Sydney<\/p>\n
Port Adelaide: Adelaide, Carlton, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, Melbourne, West Coast<\/p>\n
Richmond: Adelaide, Collingwood, Essendon, North Melbourne, St Kilda, West Coast<\/p>\n
St Kilda: Brisbane, Collingwood, Geelong, North Melbourne, Richmond, Western Bulldogs<\/p>\n
Sydney: Brisbane, GWS Giants, Hawthorn, Melbourne, North Melbourne, West Coast<\/p>\n
West Coast: Essendon, Fremantle, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Richmond, Sydney<\/p>\n
Western Bulldogs: Adelaide, Gold Coast, GWS Giants, Hawthorn, Melbourne, St Kilda<\/p>\n
Fox Footy reveals the winners and losers from the 2027 AFL fixture.Source: FOX SPORTS<\/p>\n
AFL 2027 FIXTURE DIFFICULTY (from hardest to easiest)<\/p>\n
1 (Hardest). Brisbane Lions<\/p>\n
2. Hawthorn<\/p>\n
3. Western Bulldogs<\/p>\n
4. Fremantle<\/p>\n
5. GWS Giants<\/p>\n
6. Geelong<\/p>\n
7. Adelaide Crows<\/p>\n
8. Gold Coast Suns<\/p>\n
9. Port Adelaide<\/p>\n
10. Carlton<\/p>\n
11. Sydney Swans<\/p>\n
12. Melbourne<\/p>\n
13. West Coast Eagles<\/p>\n
14. St Kilda<\/p>\n
15. Collingwood<\/p>\n
16. North Melbourne<\/p>\n
17. Richmond<\/p>\n
18 (Easiest). Essendon<\/p>\n
WINNERS<\/p>\n
Sydney Swans<\/p>\n
There\u2019s still plenty to play out off the field for the Swans after the Pullman Hotel saga. That is more important than footy, of course; but this is a footy article and we\u2019ll focus on that aspect.<\/p>\n
Despite finishing second on the ladder and hosting a preliminary final, Dean Cox\u2019s side has been given the easiest draw of any of the eight teams that won a final in 2026.<\/p>\n
The Swans face two top-six sides twice, Brisbane and Hawthorn, but they\u2019ve also been given two games against the bottom six (West Coast and North Melbourne) plus two games against the middle six (GWS and Melbourne).<\/p>\n
It may not be as easy as that makes it sound – Melbourne was in the top-four race until Round 24 last season, and North Melbourne (an obvious double-up opponent due to the Nick Blakey trade) is likely to improve – and while they rank 11th, they\u2019re closer to having the seventh-hardest draw than the 13th-hardest.<\/p>\n
Still, in simple terms, the Swans won 18 games last year and beat the eventual premiers in September. They probably deserved a harder run than this.<\/p>\n
North Melbourne<\/p>\n
Yep, again.<\/p>\n
To be fair, the Kangaroos\u2019 draw isn\u2019t quite as easy as last year. But the average percentage of their double-up opponents is just 93.66%.<\/p>\n
The only other teams below 98% are lowly Essendon and Richmond, who truly needed the help from the fixture gods.<\/p>\n
They play just one top-six team twice, Sydney, which is obviously due to the Nick Blakey trade. That\u2019s a pretty good pull because most will expect the Swans to be worse in 2027 – because of Blakey\u2019s absence, and because of the fallout from the Pullman saga, and because of natural regression after a big leap in 2026.<\/p>\n
The Kangaroos get four games against the two worst sides, Essendon and Richmond, and then have winnable double-ups against sides likely to be around the middle of the ladder with them – Carlton, Gold Coast and St Kilda.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s not ridiculous to suggest the Roos could win seven of their 10 double-up games, meaning they\u2019d only need to pinch another six from their remaining 13 matches to play finals. That seems achievable.<\/p>\n
Collingwood<\/p>\n
The fourth-easiest draw, for a side that was a kick after the siren away from winning a final, sounds a little odd though we can explain it.<\/p>\n
The Magpies do have to face the two Grand Finalists twice each, but to make up for it they also get double-ups against battlers Essendon and Richmond.<\/p>\n
Getting those four games where you can almost pencil in the four points already is a major advantage.<\/p>\n
Only three teams – West Coast, North Melbourne and Collingwood – get that benefit.<\/p>\n
Dominoes to fall at Collingwood? | 07:39<\/p>\n
LOSERS<\/p>\n
Western Bulldogs<\/p>\n
Luke Beveridge\u2019s side copped an absolutely shocking draw last year, with their six double-up opponents all playing finals.<\/p>\n
The AFL looked at that and said \u201cyeah cool, whatever, you won a final, LET\u2019S GO AGAIN\u201d.<\/p>\n
Despite finishing eighth the Bulldogs cop what shapes as 2027\u2019s third-hardest draw including plenty of interstate trips, with double-ups against Adelaide, Gold Coast, GWS, Hawthorn, Melbourne and St Kilda.<\/p>\n
When the Giants – who got much younger but still have plenty of top-end talent – are probably your easiest double-up opponent, you\u2019re potentially in for a bad time.<\/p>\n
Throw in the fact the Bulldogs and Brisbane (who are discussed below) are the only two teams to get true away games in Gather Round, rather than neutral clashes, and the chances of Beveridge finally taking the Bulldogs to the top four have taken a hit.<\/p>\n
They may still be good enough with Sam Darcy coming back and Zak Butters coming in, of course.<\/p>\n
Brisbane Lions<\/p>\n
It\u2019s entirely reasonable that the back-to-back-to-back premiers would have the toughest fixture, but it\u2019s still worth nothing just how tricky 2027 could be as they push for a fourth flag in a row.<\/p>\n
All six of the Lions\u2019 double-up opponents are legit finals contenders, three of them at the very tippy top, with six games against Fremantle, Geelong and Sydney booked in.<\/p>\n
Collingwood stocked up with Lachie Neale to keep contending, plus Gold Coast is almost certain to improve on whatever mess the second half of last season was, while St Kilda is trying to push up into the top 10 as well.<\/p>\n
Maybe you aren\u2019t convinced by the Suns or Saints but, at the very least, the Lions don\u2019t have any easy double-up games. Their lone bottom six opponent, the Suns, finished 13th with a percentage in the mid-90s.<\/p>\n
Compare that to the likely auto-wins given to the Dockers and Swans (who both get West Coast twice), the Cats (Essendon twice) and the Crows (Richmond twice).<\/p>\n
GWS Giants<\/p>\n
The Giants crept into the middle six despite a horrendous run of injuries and, in the process, have copped a tougher draw than they would\u2019ve been given if they\u2019d finished in the bottom six.<\/p>\n
Despite finishing 12th they\u2019ve copped double-ups against four teams who won a final in 2026 – Carlton, Fremantle, Sydney and the Bulldogs.<\/p>\n
They also get two editions of the final Expansion Cup, against a likely-to-improve Gold Coast side, before we have to figure out Tasmania\u2019s eligibility for the title in 2028.<\/p>\n
The Giants also play Essendon twice, and we were gonna do a joke about that making everything better, but the Giants were one of the two teams who actually lost to Essendon in 2026 so we can\u2019t even do that!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"As much as we\u2019d love a truly balanced AFL fixture, it\u2019s just not practical – playing everyone once…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":944725,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[64,63,85],"class_list":["post-944724","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-sports","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/944724","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=944724"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/944724\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/944725"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=944724"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=944724"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=944724"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}