nation could head into recession<\/a>.<\/p>\n\u201cI think there’s some chance, at least, that we might tip into an outright recession,\u201d Mr Bloxham told Business Now.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe haven’t got that as our central case, but I’ve avidly been talking about the idea that we think there is a 50-50 chance that we could – particularly in the short run.\u201d<\/p>\n
He went one step further to argue that Australia\u2019s dire productivity was limiting how much the economy could grow without inflation surging, meaning a downturn was necessary.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is the downturn we have to have. We have to have a downswing,\u201d Mr Bloxham said, referencing Mr Keating\u2019s \u201crecession we had to have\u201d comment about the early 1990s recession.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere’s really no other way to get inflation down, given the productivity growth is weak and the economy has a much lower speed limit that it’s had in the past.<\/p>\n
\u201cGrowth has to slow quite a lot.\u201d<\/p>\n
Mr Bloxham\u2019s point contrasts with remarks from RBA chief economist Sarah Hunter who was adamant Australia was not heading towards a recession.<\/p>\n
\u201cAt the moment our assessment is that none of those indicators are suggesting that the economy is in, or is heading into, a recession in the near-term,\u201d Ms Hunter said during Senate estimates on Wednesday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Australia\u2019s ability to overcome the cost of living crisis depends on whether it can overcome one \u201creal challenge\u201d…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":945712,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[513134,407230,513143,513115,439469,513122,493221,472466,393488,513144,513141,426817,513130,513128,422354,513127,513118,395693,513136,254,64,63,99,32092,41262,21450,164,513113,17119,208,51501,402698,5465,134613,513132,5626,513135,513129,388964,377384,388114,513124,99861,513117,513126,513137,23695,513125,386393,513112,513123,50852,50279,20246,3324,513139,513140,418809,513116,45078,4846,248407,124130,378904,513131,513114,513111,117023,378671,513120,513133,378384,402712,393004,122841,513119,378979,402694,225862,188490,513121,393515,383433,513142,449798,513110,378969,380074,513138,6618,41313],"class_list":["post-945711","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-s-recession","tag-s-ability","tag-s-dire-productivity","tag-s-managing-director-kerry-craig","tag-s-point","tag-s-productivity-rate","tag-0-2","tag-2-1","tag-4-3","tag-a-50-50-chance","tag-a-downswing","tag-a-downturn","tag-a-much-lower-speed-limit","tag-a-real-challenge","tag-a-recession","tag-a-relatively-weak-economic-growth-backdrop","tag-a-top-analyst","tag-a-warning","tag-an-outright-recession","tag-artificial-intelligence","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-business","tag-cent","tag-cost","tag-cpi","tag-economy","tag-enhancement","tag-gdp","tag-growth","tag-hours","tag-hsbc-chief-economist-paul-bloxham","tag-inflation","tag-inflation-rate","tag-inflation-surging","tag-interest-rates","tag-jp-morgan-asset-management","tag-kerry-craig","tag-living-crisis","tag-mr-bloxham","tag-mr-craig","tag-mr-keating","tag-ms-hunter","tag-news24-business","tag-newswire-valeriu-campan","tag-no-other-way","tag-november","tag-one-real-challenge","tag-one-step","tag-our-assessment","tag-our-central-case","tag-paul-bloxham","tag-persistence","tag-picture","tag-productivity","tag-productivity-challenges","tag-productivity-rate","tag-quite-a-lot","tag-rba-chief-economist-sarah-hunter","tag-real-challenge","tag-recession","tag-remarks","tag-senate-estimates","tag-snapp-business","tag-some-chance","tag-some-uplift","tag-that-productivity","tag-the-australian-economy","tag-the-claim","tag-the-coming-10-years","tag-the-coming-decade","tag-the-cost","tag-the-downturn","tag-the-early-1990s-recession","tag-the-economy","tag-the-fifth-cash-rate-hike","tag-the-idea","tag-the-june-quarter","tag-the-moment","tag-the-nation","tag-the-near-term","tag-the-number","tag-the-past","tag-the-productivity-growth","tag-the-same-period","tag-the-short-run","tag-the-year","tag-the-years","tag-those-indicators","tag-time","tag-wednesday"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/945711","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=945711"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/945711\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/945712"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=945711"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=945711"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=945711"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}