The Basics: 19.0 points (5th), 50.4% on 11.6 two-point attempts, 33.9% on 3.5 three-point attempts, 88.6% on 4.3 free-throw attempts
Advanced Numbers: 50.5 eFG%, 56.1 TS%
WNBA League-Average Efficiency: 49.5% on 2s, 33.8% on 3s, 49.9 eFG%, 54.2 TS%
Twelve players are averaging at least 10.0 two-point shots per game this season. Of those 12, nine have converted at least 50 percent of those looks. Bueckers is the only guard in that 12-player group, and she’s one of the nine who’s making at least half of her shots in that range.
Between quick curls to get her to the elbow, pull-ups out of ball screens, self-created looks against switches and the occasional post touch, Bueckers’ comfort operating in the mid-range area—it’s not dead!—has been a joy to watch.
She’s converted roughly 45 percent of her middies this year, an impressive mark especially considering her volume (only Courtney Williams has attempted more) and degree of difficulty. Her 95.2 percent contest rate is fourth among the 26 players who have attempted at least 50 mid-range shots.
She’s shifty enough, and her handle is slick enough, to create advantages for herself. Because of her high release point and willingness to alter it, she’s also able to find shot windows that shouldn’t exist.
Bueckers’ growing ability to draw fouls deserves a mention here, too. She possesses great footwork and balance, and she’s done a better job of leveraging her jump-stops, pivots and fakes to get to the line. There’s room for her to hunt even more in that regard, honestly. Adding more play strength should allow her to access the paint more easily, ideally opening up even more foul-drawing opportunities.
The easiest way for Bueckers to level up as a scorer would be to modernize her shot profile a bit. A whopping 35.6 percent of her shots have come at the rim or from three. Among the 95 players who have logged at least 500 minutes this season, only A’ja Wilson (28.4%) has a lower Moreyball rate.
Bueckers only averaging 3.5 threes per game feels low and is easily correctable. Her film is littered with early-offense possessions where she flows into 18-20 foot pull-up jumpers (fine shots for her) instead of taking shots from behind the arc. A 25 percent clip on pull-up threes sounds rough, and it could be justification for her not taking them…until you realize she’s attempted only 16 all season.
As a wise man once said, “It’s not enough.”
To be clear, Bueckers is a good enough mid-range scorer that she shouldn’t take the shot completely out of her game. In terms of shot distribution, even something like a 20-50-30 split (rim/mid-range/threes) would do wonders for her compared to the 13-64-23 split she has this season. Finding better balance is the key.