Well, we’ve been querying, speculating, prognosticating for an entire season, but this Sunday, the NASCAR Cup Series finally hits the gas (sorry) on its first postseason race. For those who need a reminder, or refuse to acknowledge the modern playoff system, the playoffs take a four-round format with three races per round in the first three elimination rounds, and then a championship race on November 2 featuring the final four, or “Championship 4.”

NASCAR kicks it off at Darlington Raceway Sunday night. And, to prep your brain and your betting slip (if you partake), we’re bringing our top questions about the playoffs and this race to our NASCAR experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi. They’ll break down the biggest questions heading into the postseason, what they’re most looking forward to and/or dreading, their picks for the Championship 4 and champion and their favorites and long shots for Sunday night.

We’ll get to the Q&A, but first, for context, the odds for the race and the playoff winner.

Race winner odds for NASCAR’s Cook Out Southern 500 at DarlingtonCup Series champion oddsQ&A for NASCAR at Darlington and playoff picture

It’s the first race of the playoffs, so let’s start with some table setting. You already have an fantastically detailed preview of all 16 drivers and why they will or won’t win. But what are the biggest surprises coming in? What are you most excited about and most disappointed about as we kick off the postseason?

Jeff: For me, there are some intriguing potential storylines. As I wrote on Friday, Joey Logano is a master of this playoff format and could make it four straight for Team Penske in the Next Gen car. If Logano wins, it would be his second straight, third in four years and fourth overall to match the other “four-time” — Jeff Gordon. Then there’s Denny Hamlin, who quietly has enough speed to finally win his first career championship at nearly age 45, all while in an antitrust lawsuit battle with NASCAR. William Byron or Christopher Bell could emerge with their first and break through as champions. Kyle Larson or Ryan Blaney could become multi-time champs. What about Chase Briscoe in his first year at Joe Gibbs Racing, driving Martin Truex Jr.’s old car? There’s a lot unknown in this wide-open year with no truly dominant driver, and that part is exciting.

Jordan: Most years there are one or two drivers who’ve separated themselves from the pack, making them the clear-cut “favorites” heading into the playoffs. This year, however, that isn’t the case as there are a handful of six-to-eight drivers who you can realistically expect to make a title run. This level of parity makes the playoffs feel wide open, adding even more unpredictability to a playoff format already designed to induce unpredictability. How these next 10 weeks unfold should add a level of drama and excitement that at times has been absent this season.

Give us a preview of the most notable quirks of the postseason schedule and tracks. Who does it advantage or disadvantage?

Jeff: Because WWT Raceway near St. Louis and New Hampshire are now in the playoffs, that adds two shorter, flatter tracks to the schedule. And guess whose strength that is? Yup, Penske. That’s how Penske has won three titles with this car, since Phoenix — a cousin of Gateway and New Hampshire — is the final race. At the same time, I personally believe it hurts the Hendrick Motorsports cars (their drivers don’t necessarily agree). Hendrick put a huge emphasis on getting better at Phoenix over the offseason, but when they showed up there this spring, there wasn’t enough progress considering Hendrick is NASCAR’s powerhouse team. We’ll find out soon enough whether they’ve made gains, as Byron noted on Media Day that the presence of Gateway and New Hampshire could serve as a virtual test session for Phoenix.

Jordan: The scales certainly seem to be tipping further in the advantage of Team Penske, but in no way does this mean the championship — which would be its fourth consecutive — is theirs to lose. For the past few seasons, Joe Gibbs Racing’s Bell has run better at Phoenix than just about anyone and had he been in the championship race last year, it would’ve likely been him winning over any of Penske’s title-eligible drivers. So while Logano, Blaney and the rest of Penske should feel confident, having to face down Bell at Phoenix is not something that they’re going to want to do because Bell is ever capable of beating them both.

Who are you picking for Championship 4  — and champion — and why? The odds are tight!

Jeff: My Championship 4 is two JGR drivers (Briscoe and Hamlin) and two Penske drivers (Logano and Blaney). For me, it comes down to that lineup of the tracks I mentioned earlier. Shorter, flatter tracks are the strength of Penske with some great competition from the Gibbs cars. Given this is the last year of the Phoenix championship race before it moves to Homestead next season, I’m picking Penske to win a fourth straight title with Logano. The team just feels inevitable at times in the playoffs.

Jordan: Bell, Briscoe, Blaney and Hendrick Motorsports’ Larson are my championship picks. The first three are obvious because of how they’ve run this season combined with how well the playoff schedule sets up for them. But let’s also not overlook Larson, who had a “down” regular season by the lofty expectations placed on his team but still ranked near the very top in several key statistical categories. This is still Larson, the 2021 Cup champion, who is ever capable of winning on any given track any given week. Him going on a torrid playoff run that sees him scoring multiple victories and rolling to a second title is very much in play. He’s my pick to win the championship.

Now let’s narrow it down to this race: Who is your favorite to win at Darlington?

Jeff: There were points in the spring Darlington race where it looked like Byron was going to lead every lap of the race, but he was thwarted by the green-flag pit stop strategy and settled for second. But after leading 243 laps there, you would think he’ll absolutely be a contender there again and it would be puzzling if he wasn’t. That said, will he win? With long runs, this race often comes down to strategy plays — which is exactly how Byron lost in the spring. I’m very curious to see what Briscoe (+1200) can do after winning this race last year; now he has a faster car and has been one of the best drivers in the second half of the season.

Jordan: Larson’s championship push begins by him winning the Southern 500 for a second time. This track fits his skill set well, has long been one of his best and his team almost always brings fast cars here. There is no reason to think this weekend will be any different.

Who is a long shot who could surprise?

Jeff: Never overlook Erik Jones at Darlington. He is a two-time Southern 500 winner and, although he hasn’t led a lap there since 2022, he seems to have a knack for getting around the place if his car is fast enough. I’m not saying he’ll win it, but you could at least look at him for a top-10 finish (he has +210 odds for a top-10).

Jordan: Rare is it that Kyle Busch can be classified as a “long shot,” but considering he hasn’t had a victory in two-plus years and failed to qualify for the playoffs for a second consecutive season, the first time he’s ever done that, let’s go ahead and place him in this category. But also don’t forget that he nearly won this race last year and in the spring he finished 10th. If his team can give him the car, Busch has the ability to snap his career-long 83-race winless drought Sunday night.

How to watch NASCAR this weekend
Race: Cook Out Southern 500
Track: Darlington Raceway — Darlington, S.C.
Time: Sunday, August 31, 6 p.m. ET
Channel: USA and HBO Max

(Photo of Kyle Larson: Chris Graythen / Getty Images)