Rowan Kavner

At the end of the month, we’ll have postseason baseball. But the road to get there will have plenty of curves.

The Tigers, Brewers and Phillies (even after getting swept by the Mets) all maintain comfortable leads in their respective divisions, but only two games separate the top teams in both the NL West and AL West. Meanwhile, the three-team battle in the AL East is getting interesting with the Blue Jays, Yankees and Red Sox all separated by only 3.5 games. 

How difficult is the strength of schedule remaining for those clubs in September? Find out more below in this week’s contender rankings. 

(Note: Contender rankings only include teams within five games of a playoff spot as of Sept. 1.)

After finally hitting a bit of a rocky patch, the Brewers emerged with a series win at Toronto over the weekend. On a team that’s greater than the sum of its parts, it’s worth singling out the individual contributions of Freddy Peralta, who has now gone four straight outings without allowing a run and finished August with just one run allowed in 28 innings. This is still the best team in baseball, and their schedule ahead isn’t exactly daunting — there’s a combined 12 games against the Cardinals, Pirates and Angels — but they’ll get some good tests against the Phillies, Rangers and Padres before season’s end. 

They still have the biggest division lead of any first-place club, but it wasn’t a great look getting swept by the A’s in Sacramento. The Tigers quickly made up for that, though, winning a series against a Royals team that looks like the next-best team in the AL Central. Detroit still has six games remaining against Cleveland. Outside of that, their remaining schedule is split between top competition (the Red Sox and both New York clubs) and lesser foes (White Sox, Marlins, Braves). 

After getting swept by a Mets team that has had their number, the Phillies made their NL East lead more comfortable again by taking three of four games against the Braves to finish the weekend. With a six-game lead, FanGraphs gives the Phillies a 91% chance to win the division. The road ahead is one of the tougher ones among the contenders, with matchups still to go against the Brewers, Dodgers and (gulp) the Mets. It eases up at the end, though, as their season ends against the D-backs, Marlins and Twins. 

Despite a frustrating outing against the Mets, Bryce Harper and the Phillies are closing in on the NL East crown. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

The Blue Jays have maintained the advantage in the AL East, but they’re not making it any easier on themselves lately, having lost seven of their last 13 games. Last week was their second straight 3-3 week, and their lead is now only three games over the surging Yankees and 3.5 over the Red Sox. They don’t have a particularly easy road ahead, either, having to play both of those division rivals, and the Astros and playoff hopefuls Royals and Reds. 

They swept the Reds then nearly got swept themselves by the D-backs before salvaging the series with a walk-off win on Sunday. They have seven games remaining against the Giants, which seemed like a good thing for most of the last few months, but San Francisco is suddenly hot. The Dodgers also have to play the Phillies and Mariners before season’s end, which makes the next nine games against the Pirates, Orioles and Rockies a vital stretch to extend their lead on the Padres. 

Their sweep in Anaheim wasn’t the jumping off point they had hoped, as they followed immediately by getting swept in San Francisco. The Cubs salvaged the week by taking a series in Colorado, but they’re now 6.5 games back of the Brewers with 25 games to go. Their spot in the playoffs isn’t a question, but FanGraphs understandably gives them just a 4% chance to win the division. That said, they do have one of the easiest schedules ahead among contenders. The Mets are the only team left on their schedule that’s more than a game above .500. 

The Yankees needed to take care of business against the Nationals and White Sox, and they did. A hazardous next couple of weeks await against the Astros, Blue Jays, Tigers and Red Sox, but they’ve at least built themselves a nice wild-card cushion. And if they can emerge from this upcoming stretch in good shape, they’re set up well as they close the regular season against the Twins, Orioles, White Sox and Orioles again. 

Aaron Judge and the Yankees are moving up this week’s rankings. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)

Losing a series last week at Seattle was forgivable. Losing another right after in Minnesota was … not. The Padres were unable to gain ground on a Dodgers team that was nearly swept over the weekend by Arizona, but they can take some solace knowing they have the easiest strength of schedule remaining of the contenders with seven more games against the Rockies and three apiece against the White Sox and Orioles. 

After losing a series to the Pirates, the Red Sox were leapfrogged by the Yankees for second place in the AL East. The Blue Jays, Yankees and Red Sox are all now within 3.5 games of one another in what should be a fascinating battle to the finish, with all three teams in a good spot to at least make the postseason even if they miss out on the division title. The Red Sox will want to take care of business in their six games left against the A’s because the rest of the schedule is tough. They still have a series apiece remaining against the Blue Jays and Yankees, as well as one against the AL-best Tigers. 

Yordan Alvarez is back, but the Astros’ offense is still struggling to score, plating no more than four runs in any of their last seven games. They have a much harder road ahead than the Mariners club they’re trying to hold off, and how they perform within the AL West — 16 of their last 25 games are against division foes, including seven against the Rangers — will largely determine whether they can clinch the division for the fifth straight year. 

Yordan Alvarez and the Astros are keeping a close eye on AL West rivals the Mariners and the Rangers. (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)

The new-look Mariners just can’t seem to gain any steam. They went 4-2 on their homestand against the A’s and Padres only to then drop a series to the Guardians and have now lost 11 of their last 17 games. They’re only 2.5 games ahead of the Rangers for the final wild-card spot…but they’re also only two games behind the Astros for the AL West lead. If they’re going to make their move, now would be a good time. After a road trip to Tampa Bay and Atlanta, the Mariners will host the Cardinals and Angels. 

They swept the Phillies, moving within four games of Philadelphia for the top spot in the NL East at the time, only to then turn around and lose three of four to the Marlins, who scored 32 runs over four games. The Mets have a comfortable four-game advantage for the final wild-card spot but also have one of the toughest schedules remaining — their next five series are against teams with winning records. That does, however, include four more games against a Phillies team they have gone 7-2 against this year. 

Is this a good time to point out that the Rangers’ run differential is 67 runs better than the Mariners team they’re chasing for the final wild-card spot? This Texas team remains an enigma, impossible to figure out. When they should win, they falter. When you count them out, they get back in contention. They’ve lost Corey Seager to an appendectomy, Nathan Eovaldi to a rotator cuff strain, Marcus Semien to a foot fracture and Evan Carter to a wrist fracture, and yet have now won eight of their last nine games to move 4.5 games back of the Astros for the AL West lead and 2.5 games back of the final AL wild-card spot. 

Since winning seven of eight games to put themselves firmly in the playoff mix, the Royals have since lost six of their last 11 games, including both series against the division-leading Tigers in that stretch. If the Royals are going to make things interesting, it probably has to happen this week in a homestand against the Angels and Twins.

Both Ohio clubs are in a similar boat, on the outskirts of the playoff picture with their chances of a wild-card spot fading. But after a six-game losing streak, the Guardians bounced back by winning series against the Rays and Mariners last week. They still have six more games against the AL Central-leading Tigers, but they also have seven games against the Twins and White Sox before season’s end. 

An uphill climb is in store for the Guardians and their postseason hopes. (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The Reds had their chance to make a playoff push while the Mets were scuffling for much of the month, but Cincinnati squandered that chance, and now their hopes are quickly fading after a 1-5 week. They were swept at the Dodgers, lost a series to the Cardinals and have the hardest strength of schedule remaining among contenders. Their homestand continues against the Blue Jays and Mets before traveling to San Diego. 

The odds are still heavily against them — FanGraphs gives them a 2% chance to make the playoffs — but they’ve won seven of eight games and picked up series wins against the Brewers, Cubs and Orioles in the process to at least put themselves back in the mix, now five games back of a wild-card spot. They have a good chance to keep the good vibes alive on a road trip to Colorado and St. Louis and get to play those clubs a combined 12 times in their final 25 games. 

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on X at @RowanKavner.

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