Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don’t own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from Anton)

I’m in an 8 team, non-cap league, with rosters consisting of 12F, 6D, 3G and 5 bench slots. Scoring categories and weight for forwards (which is the only position relevant for my question) are: G(3), A(2), PPPt(1), SHPTS (2) GWG(1), OTG(2), SOG(0.3), HIT(0.3), BLK (0,3) +/- (0,5), FOW (0,1), FOL (-0,1), HT (15), Fights (3).In addition, there is a farm with up to 20 slots available per team, where you can put any category of player (i.e., not limited to prospects), so the league is quite deep despite the relatively low number of teams.

Prior to each season, each team normally must drop at least 5 players, but can keep the rest should they choose. But every five years, the league does a bigger shake up where each team can only keep 20 players in total, and the next one of these will occur after the upcoming season. From experience, this setup has led to youth being highly valued by all GMs, as teams will rarely hold on to an older player during one of these big shakeups, unless they are super elite, and will instead opt for younger talent with more years left in their prime. 

This past year, a team was kicked out of the league and therefore we will have a small draft (prior to our ordinary annual draft) where the remaining teams get to pick the players from the departed team. I’ve been rebuilding for several years, so I will be picking second overall in this small “pre-draft”. I’m aiming on being a bottom 3 team once again; but given how my rebuild has left me positioned, plus the upcoming reset, there will be an opportunity for me to quickly ascend.

Based on my own assessment, the best players available from the team that exited are Quinn Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Robert Thomas, Martin Necas, Kyle Connor and Sam Reinhart. It’s all but assured the GM picking ahead of me will grab Hughes. Which of the five forwards would you take? Ideally I want this player to be a mainstay in my team for the next 3/4 seasons, but I could also go with the option of trading the player for futures/youth, so perceived trade value also should be taken into account.

First, a general comment. You made a point to indicate that teams usually hoard younger players since they know that every five years the big shake-up is coming. In cases like this, it always pays to ensure that the instinct of “the masses” is indeed correct. As it turns out, they do seem to be onto something here, as take a look at this data for point per game forwards appearing in 41+ games in each of the most recent four seasons.

SeasonPPG players age 25-29PPG players age 30 and 31PPG players age 32 and 33PPG players age 34 and 35PPPG players over age 352024-252222122023-241922012022-232032032021-22195231

Yes, I realize that the first column covers five years, but each of the second, third and fourth cover two, and this is a pretty glaring validation that at age 30 not only do players in fact begin to produce worse, but also an evolution toward fewer older players being as productive as compared to as recently as 2021-22. Of course in looking at those who were age 28 or 29 last season and produced at a point per game rate or higher, we land on Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Kyle Connor, Mikko Rantanen, David Pastrnak, William Nylander, Brayden Point, Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, Nathan MacKinnon, and Leon Draisaitl. But rather than seeing that and figuring the chart is due to change, we should instead realize that despite what may seem to be the case now, the majority of those 11 players will not remain point per gamers into their 30s. Definitely some useful food for thought about looking to sell high on players, or risk holding them as they decline and their value drops.

Back to your question at hand, Reinhart is not at all in the conversation. He had an amazing 2023-24; but last season he was back to point per game numbers without great goals and which he also had in 2022-23 despite Florida’s 4.11 amazing goals per game. This is his ceiling, and he seems like a strong bet to be one of those who cannot keep up this pace into his 30s. Bratt took a step forward, and that was without Jack Hughes. But I worry that with Hughes healthy, he’ll pull back points that had gone to Bratt, especially on the PP. Connor looked amazing last season and he could be a late bloomer of sorts, plus is a proven goal scorer. He’s a maybe. Necas is someone who has potential and was leading the entire league in scoring for a period of 2024-25. But he slowed, and in fact wasn’t amazing even after arriving in Colorado. In his case, I’m not keeping him when Thomas is an option, as Thomas went nuclear at the end of 2024-25, to the tune of 45 points in his last 30 games. In that he is also a somewhat larger framed player, the fact he did what he did last season, when he passed the 400 game mark that’s the breakout threshold for larger players, adds up. Thus, it’s Connor or Thomas. Although Connor does give the goals bonus, I think Thomas has 100-point potential, and for several years. He also could be the type of player who ages well, given he’s a pass first guy, versus a goal scorer like Connor, when sniping skills can indeed diminish as players age, that is unless their name happens to be Alex Ovechkin. I’m taking Thomas in this case. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Jas)

I’m in a 12 team, keep 12, weekly H2H, points only, salary cap league with rosters of 16-24 (it can vary due to the cap) and starting line-ups of 6F, 3D, 1G. Players must have played at least ten games the prior season, but not necessarily in the NHL, to be eligible to be kept.

I’m currently in the middle stage of a rebuild. Here are my options, with their salaries. Which 12 would you keep? Owen Power $8.35M, Philip Broberg $4.58M, Jamie Drysdale $2.3M, Simon Edvinsson $0.894M, Artyom Levshunov $0.975M, Zeev Buium $0.925M, J.J. Peterka $7.7M, Seth Jarvis $7.5M, Matty Beniers $7.14M, Cole Caufield $7.85M, Owen Tippett $6.2M, Trevor Zegras $5.75M, Dylan Strome $5.0M, Dawson Mercer $4.0M, Victor Arvidsson $4.0M, Kirill Marchenko $3.85M, Mattias Maccelli $3.425M, Barrett Hayton $2.65M, Marco Rossi $5.0M, Frank Nazar $0.950M, Calum Ritchie $0.918M, Juuse Saros $7.74M, Casey DeSmith $1M, Yaroslav Askarov $2M.

The easiest keeps are Askarov, who is poised to be a clear #1 on a team that should be very good very soon, Nazar, to whom the Hawks just showed a major commitment, Strome, who I think is going to have a down season but I’d keep specifically to trade, Marchenko, who is inked at a nice rate for this season and next, Zegras, who I noted in last week’s mailbag seems like he’ll thrive in Philly, and Maccelli, who is only signed for one year at this price but likely will be easy to trade given the perception that he will do great on Toronto, or if indeed he actually does. That’s five of the 12 right there.

As for who the definite non keeps would be, Power is not poised to thrive so long as Rasmus Dahlin is top dog, and is expensive. And although I feel Beniers will rebound, he’s not cheap and should be a pretty easy redraft. Tippett is no longer assured to be a top winger and took a big step back last season, so I’d let him go. Saros also is likely to fare better, but many may have lost faith in him, and the Preds, such that he would be a redraft if desired. And Arvidsson is a no for me, since if he couldn’t do well in Edmonton he’s unlikely to fare any better on a worse team. And although Peterka likely will waltz onto a very good PP1 in Utah, it is unlikely they split up Clayton Keller, Logan Cooley, and Dylan Guenther, putting him on the second line, which is a downgrade. Or to put it another way, if you’re going to pick “expensive ” players, Jarvis and/or Caufield would be better choices. More on them below. I also am letting Levshunov go, as there are too many cooks in the Chicago defenseman kitchen, such that even though he was a second overall pick he might not pan out, or if he does it might not be for a while. And Desmith is a no go, even at $1M.

Broberg is intriguing given his age and how well he fared on St. Louis. If he had a path to PP1 he’d be a lock. And that could come, although Logan Malloux does loom. Drysdale cost the Flyers a lot to obtain and is buddies with new teammate Zegras. But Philly inked Cam York for $5M per season for five years. He is a risk reward option. Edvinsson is making nice progress, but points might not come for a while, if at all. Buium seemingly has only Brock Faber to supplant to become PP1 QB, and Faber did not do himself any favors last season. Mercer is not expensive, but he also seems to be not cut from a scoring cloth. Hayton likely will play alongside Peterka, and is inexpensive plus will have added motivation in playing for a new deal. Rossi has not impressed me, as when he centered Matt Boldy, it made Boldy worse, and when he centered Kirill Kaprizov, his ship did not rise despite the tide doing so. If Rossi is kept, he’s someone to trade. Ritchie is cheap and young, such that given your rebuild he likely makes sense.

So the candidates for the other seven spots are Broberg, Drysdale, Buium, Mercer, Hayton, Rossi, and Ritchie, plus the much more expensive Jarvis, and Caufield. That’s a total of nine, meaning two cannot be kept. Is there a universe where both of the two pricey guys are not kept? Yes, since I’m not certain either one is going to be a point per gamer given the balanced approach in Carolina, and Caufield’s continued inability to thrive on the PP. If it was me, I’d only keep one of Jarvis and Caufield, and only if I think I could flip them. If that is not likely, then just keep the seven cheaper guys. If you keep one, I’d have it be Caufield, due to the Montreal hype factor and because – when seeking to trade him – you can point to his scoring rate having increased every season since he came to the NHL. To make room for him, I’d not keep Mercer. Good luck!

Question #3 (from Craig)

Draft time is coming up fast in my league, and I have 4 first round and 3 second round picks in a 9 team roto keeper league. I’m looking to rise from near worst to first without a full rebuild, and I think it can be done. Without dragging out the specifics of league structure, I’d like your take on ranking the following forwards and defensemen in terms of points only for the next 3 seasons, but also keeping in mind that for forwards PPPts are huge while for defensemen there are two units, the first being one where scoring is key and the second where HIT, BLK and +/- are. So for defensemen, ideally I’d have a mix of scorer and bangers.

The forwards for consideration are Kirill Kaprizov, Mikko Rantanen, Jack Hughes, William Nylander, Clayton Keller, Matt Boldy, Martin Necas, Nick Suzuki, Jason Robertson, Jake Guentzel, Tage Thompson, Nicolaj Ehlers. The defensemen for consideration are Rasmus Dahlin, Adam Fox, Josh Morrissey, Mikhail Sergachev, Victor Hedman, Roman Josi, Vince Dunn, Jakub Chychrun.

For defensemen, I like Dahlin the best, as he can slot into either unit and be superb. Fox is desirable as well, since although he is a one dimensional scoring d-man, that is perfect for the first unit. Sergachev is who I have third, as he really stepped up last season for Utah, which also is a team poised to score more as their young core comes into its own. Next is Hedman. He is defying father time and has no one at all who will impede his superb deployment. So until he slows, he’s very sold. After those come guys who are in a tier below.

Morrissey has come back to earth quite a bit since his 2022-23 season, ending with 23 points in his last 36 games. And don’t discount the deal Neal Pionk signed to forego unrestricted free agency, and which has him now making more than Morrissey, nor the fact Pionk tallied 25 PPPts in 71 games the one time he was allowed to run PP1, and since then has had superb PP IPPs, suggesting he could thrive again in the role. I’m leery of Morrissey, such that although he absolutely could go out there and score 60-65+ points again, that is far more in doubt than it was at this time last year.

Josi put himself in rarified air by being a point per game scorer twice from age 30 to 34, with only four other defensemen having done that, namely Ray Bourque, Phil Housley, Larry Murphy, and Paul Coffey. But what they all had in common is once they faltered, as Josi has, it was downhill from there. He has great name value, but chances are his scoring will not rise back to anywhere near past heights now that it has already trended downward.

Dunn is, I believe, a better offensive defenseman than Brandon Montour; but Dunn is turning into a Band-Aid Boy and Montour has done decently when filling in. So although Dunn has 60+ point potential, the uncertainty is a concern.

As for Chychrun, he inked a very large deal, but he’s never run a PP1, and John Carlson could keep that spot for several years, or enough time for Cole Hutson to swoop in and claim it once Clarson is out of the picture rather than Chychrun, who also is not great in banger categories. 

So the first group I’d rank as Dahlin, Fox, Sergachev, and Hedman. The second group would have Morrissey ahead of Josi, then Dunn and finally Chychrun, but Dunn could easily rise to best of this group.

For the forwards, those are a lot of talented players. The top of the tops is Kaprizov, who has 112 points in his last 74 games, and that was without much in the way of surrounding talent. Yes, he has had injury issues, but he is the best of a great group. Next is tough, as Rantanen was a consistent 100 point player, but that was alongside Nathan MacKinnon, plus his TOI in the playoffs might not be indicative of what he stands to get in Dallas, even under a new coach. So I have Hughes a notch above him due to Hughes having shown so much already. Yes, he is “damaged goods” to some extent, but if he and Rantanen both play 82 games, I’m wanting Hughes.

After those three I’ve got Keller. He’s now a 90+ point downside player who thrives on the PP, and Utah still has realistic room to get even better. Then comes Robertson, who looked reinvigorated at the end of 2024-25 plus will also benefit if indeed Dallas ice times are adjusted to give the best of the best the ice time normally given to players like them on other teams. After him I have Suzuki, who has improved every single season of his career and is the true #1 center on a team with a lot more talent on it than even a season ago. And like Keller, his stats can still grow organically. My guess is many are surprised Nylander has not been mentioned as yet; however, his 2023-24 is looking more and more like an outlier and Toronto as a whole might fare worse without Mitch Marner.

The rest of the group have question marks. Boldy seems great, but he needs a healthy Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson-Ek to thrive, and those are not guarantees. Necas was leading the entire NHL in scoring for a chunk of 2024-25, but then slowed, and even on Colorado was not amazing. He is played for a new deal though and should be extra motivated. Still, it is not clear if he and Nathan MacKinnon will have the same chemistry Mac had with Rantanen. Thompson is, like Suzuki, a clear #1 center on a team with a lot of winger talent. But Buffalo looks like it might flounder again, hurting Thompson’s numbers. Guentzel managed only point per game numbers in Tampa, and that was despite leading the entire league in PPGs. I’m not sure he has better scoring in him given his weak IPPs. And then there’s Ehlers, who many expect to finally go nuts on a new team. But Carolina most likely won’t play him that much more, plus it’s been nearly two decades since a Canes winger finished a full season at a point per game level.

So the first group of forwards would be ranked Kaprizov, Hughes, Rantanen, Keller, Robertson, Suzuki and Nylander, although I could see Suzuki above Robertson. In the second tier, it’s very tough, but I’d say Thompson, Boldy, Necas, Guentzel, and then Ehlers. Good luck!

Question #4 (from John)

I’m in three leagues, and am looking for advice for each. The first is a 10 team, keep 9, points only league with 20 players rostered per team, and no goalies nor any positional requirements. There are ten waiver wire picks up allowed during the season; but otherwise every player’s stats count in the totals. My for-certain keepers are Mitch Marner, Jack Eichel, Kyle Connor, Brayden Point, and Tim Stutzle. I need to choose four more from among Alexis Lafreniere, Marco Rossi, Dylan Cozens, Jonathan Huberdeau, Matt Duchene, Mathew Barzal, Valeri Nichushkin, Aliaksei Protas and Dmitri Voronkov. I’m leaning towards Laffy, Rossi, Cozens and Barzal. What do you think?

My second league is 11 teams, with scoring as one point per goal or assist, half a point for plus/minus and a half point extra for a power play or shorthanded goal. Goalies get two points for a win, and three more for a shutout. The starting lineup is 9G, 5D, 2G, with 7 Bench. Players can be swapped out every two weeks through Officepools. Each team can keep 13 players, but 6 must be forwards, 3 must be defensemen, and 1 must be a goalie, so the other three can be any position. I’m going for a threepeat in this league, so I need solid keepers. For my six forwards, I’m keeping Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, Matt Boldy, Lucas Raymond, and Aleksander Barkov, then need to choose from Jake Guentzel or Clayton Keller, and am leaning towards Keller. My three defensemen keepers are Mikhail Sergachev, Erik Karlsson, and Filip Hronek. My goalie keeper is Ilya Sorokin. Here’s who I have to choose from for the other three spots: Sergei Bobrovsky, Juuse Saros, Andrei Svechnikov, William Eklund, Connor McMichael, Tomas Hertl, Darnell Nurse, Justin Faulk, Jamie Drysdale, and Oren Zellweger. I’m leaning towards Bob, Saros, and Svechnikov, but that would mean a keeper (Saros) would be on the bench. What do you think?

My third league is an 11 team dynasty where I’m just finishing a four year rebuild. Scoring is the same as the second pool, but it’s daily lineups, with 12F, 6D, 2G, plus each team has 8 Bench and 12 Minors. I need to drop four of my main lineup players, and three players from the minors, before the season starts. The forwards I’m keeping are Dylan Cozens, Alex DeBrincat, Brandon Hagel, Travis Konecny, Jordan Kyrou, Matvei Michkov, Jack Quinn, Jason Robertson, Nick Suzuki, Quinton Byfield, Wyatt Johnston, and Dylan Holloway. The defensemen I’m keeping are Evan Bouchard, Bowen Byram, Moritz Seider, Simon Edvinsson, Artyom Levshunov and Brock Faber. The goalies I’m keeping are Pyotr Kochetkov, Yaroslav Askarov, and Spencer Knight.

That means I have to drop four of Kirby Dach, Luke Evangelista, Nick Robertson, Alex Turcotte, Philip Broberg, Noah Hanifin, K’Andre Miller, Alex Vlasic, Samuel Ersson, Alex Nedelkovic, and Charlie Lindgren. I’m leaning towards dropping Turcotte, Evangelista, Nick Robertson and Vlasic, but I could be persuaded otherwise. I have 12 players in the minors, so I need to drop three. I’m keeping Berkly Catton, Sebastian Cossa and Jesper Wallstedt, but the rest aren’t clear to me. I’m anticipating getting Michael Misa (2nd pick in draft, 1st is taking Schaefer), probably Victor Eklund with my 9th pick, and Maxim Shabanov with my 13th pick. To make room, I need to drop three of Riley Heidt, Jett Luchanko, Liam Ohgren, Carson Rehkopf, Isak Rosen, Brayden Yager, Henry Brzustewicz, Topi Niemela, and Ilya Nabokov. I’m leaning towards dropping Ohgren, Niemela, and Brzustewicz. What would you do?

This is a lot –basically three full questions in one. So to keep things manageable for both me and the readers, I won’t go into the level of detail I usually do for single questions.

For the first question, I fully agree with your certain keeps. They are, on paper, a tier above the others from which you can choose. As for selecting four from the rest, I like Cozens for sure. For starters, he is a larger frame player, and this season will hit the 400 game breakout threshold normally associated with players of that size. And although it was just two games, he ended 2024-25 with five points in those two games. He also will have talent around him. And my guess is he finds a way onto what should be a very good PP1. He’s worth a spot. My second choice is Matt Duchene, but with the caveat that he is all but assured to do at least somewhat worse. But I think that worse, in his case, still will be good enough. He is a pinpoint shooter, does well on the PP even though relegated to the second unit, and should get enough TOI to produce, what with him having four straight seasons of a double digit 5×5 team SH% and sky high IPPs, for a rare combination of a player who both creates offense and factors significantly into that which is created. After that, I probably roll the dice on Nichushkin, who still is missing games but the difference is he’s less productive when he plays. But when he does, it’s on a top line and PP1, so in my mind that is worth a gamble. And so too is Barzal. The Islanders could be awful, but even on awful teams someone has to score, and Barzal will be put into every possible situation to help him do so. 

Why not Rossi, Laffy, or Protas? I think Rossi will continue to underwhelm, wherever he is, while Laffy simply seems like he won’t connect the dots, and Protas’ numbers could be his new normal, or, due to so many ES points and a sky high SH%, might come back to earth.

For the second question, I agree on your goalie and defensemen keepers. But Hronek is quite weak by comparison, such that if offseason trading is allowed you should explore an upgrade, perhaps using one of your close call non-keeps.

I like Keller over Guentzel. Keller is a 90 point downside player at his best in non-banger leagues like this. Guentzel, despite 17 PPGs, was only a point per game player, plus both his IPPs were under 60%, which is very low, yet his 5×5 team SH% was 11.7%, meaning although offense was occurring when he was on the ice, he was not part of it. But is he a keep as one of your three “extras” from any position? Yes, as the rest of the skaters are a notch below, and I don’t see Guentzel doing worse than 75 points. I am not on board with Svechnikov, who went from being someone who poolies were waiting to see hit 80 or 90 points, to a player we’re not sure will hit 70 again. He’s weak on the PP and shoots a lot less now. He’s not a keep over Guentzel. But I’m with you on keeping Bob and Saros for the other two spots. Goalie is a position of scarcity, and those are two locked in #1s. So keep them for sure. As to whether you can use anyone not being kept to try an upgrade Hronek, chances are Svech would not be enough, and I’m not inclined to trade Bob or Saros, so just settle for Hronek and hope for the best.

For the third question, I’m almost in full agreement with you on the non-farm players. We only differ on Evangelista, who I do not see as a drop. He ended 2024-25 with 13 points in 14 games and will hit his 200 game breakout threshold this season. He has potential enough to merit keeping. But who to drop in place of him? I’d say Ersson. Among 71 other instances of a goalie age 26 or younger who played in at least 41+ games in what was one of his first three seasons, Ersson’s 2024-25 GAA ranked him eighth worst, his SV% worst (with his 2023-24 SV% second worst!), his QS% fourth worst, his Really Bad Start total of 14 second worst, and his -19.6 GSAA worst. I realize goalies are tough to let go, but Ersson is just bad, and he’s the non-keep, not Evangelista.

As for minors guys, I will again note that prospects are not my strong suit, and that the best resource is the DobberHockey Prospects Guide, plus the main site’s monthly rankings. In this case, the netminders make sense, although Wallstedt is not the sure thing he once was seen to be, but still has plenty of time to right his ship. With only three drops needed, I’d look at players who project to not be impactful at the NHL level. I am not loving that Rehkopf was still in juniors despite not being a teen, and Seattle is not exactly brimming with top tier talent. Yes, the same could be said about Yager, but at least in his case the Jets had plenty of elite players to justify not rushing him. Rosen seems like he might be a “AAAA” player, meaning too good for the AHL but not good enough to be an NHL mainstay. Niemela isn’t young and not showing any signs of progressing, which is a bad combination, and Brzustewicz seems like he’ll be blocked by phenom Zayne Parekh. So I see four “weak spots” and agree Niemela and Brzustewicz should be two of the drops. As for the third though, I’m going with Rosen. Good luck!

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As noted in the title of the column, this is part 3 of my mailbag, and sure enough I’ve received enough questions for a part 4, although I can likely answer a couple more questions. You can get your questions in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is “rizzeedizzee”.

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you’re in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you’re thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it’s best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don’t matter.