As the 2025 deadline set by its National Broadband Plan approaches, Nigeria is struggling to deliver on its promises. Results are stagnating, highlighting persistent obstacles to the country’s digital transformation.
Nigeria’s broadband penetration rate declined for the second consecutive month, falling to 48.01% in July 2025, according to data from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC). This decline extends a slight decline observed in June, following a moderate increase from 48.15% in April to 48.81% in May. The number of connections also declined, from 105.7 million in June to approximately 104 million in July.
This situation is all the more worrying given that Nigeria is targeting 70% penetration by the end of 2025, in line with the National Broadband Plan 2020–2025 (NBP). However, even the interim targets have been missed: the target of 50% by the end of 2023 has not been met, with only 44.43% recorded by the end of 2024.
The delays are attributable to several major bottlenecks, including the high cost of tolls imposed by state governments, which hamper infrastructure deployment. To date, only seven states have removed them. Aminu Maida, executive vice chairman of the NCC’s National Coordination Committee, stressed the need to review state policies to create a more investment-friendly environment.
Despite the arrival of 5G, the 4G network still dominates the mobile landscape. By early 2025, nearly 49.3% of subscriptions were connected to it, compared to just 3% for 5G. However, data usage is exploding: in July, consumption reached a record 1.1 million terabytes, driven by the growth of 4G and 5G networks.
Launched in 2020 with a penetration rate of 39.85%, the plan to reach 70% in five years seemed ambitious but achievable. As the deadline approaches, the slowdown and structural blockages are making the goal increasingly unattainable.
This delay, in a context of exploding digital uses, poses a major challenge to Nigeria’s competitiveness. To avoid missing out on the digital economy, the country will need to remove regulatory barriers and better coordinate actions between the federal and state levels. Otherwise, the digital divide risks widening, hampering inclusion, innovation, and growth.