Nigeria’s ambition to achieve 70 percent broadband penetration by the end of 2025, as outlined in the National Broadband Plan (NBP) 2020–2025, represents a bold vision for digital transformation, but the dream is increasingly at risk as penetration lingered at 48.01 percent in July 2025.
The NBP, launched in March 2020 when penetration was 39.85 percent with 75.4 million subscribers, aims to revolutionise Nigeria’s digital economy by delivering high-speed internet to 70 percent of its 216.7 million population, ensuring minimum speeds of 25 Mbps in urban areas and 10 Mbps in rural areas, reducing data costs to N390 per 1GB, and achieving 90 percent population coverage.
The plan also targets 70 percent 4G subscriptions by 2023 and the establishment of a local smartphone assembly plant to lower device costs to N18,000.
Aligned with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s ‘Renewed Hope’ agenda, the NBP envisions a digital economy contributing 22 percent to GDP by 2027, fostering job creation, entrepreneurship, and inclusive growth.
However, with only five months remaining, the gap of 21.99 percent, equivalent to 47 million to 50 million additional connections, poses a formidable challenge, exacerbated by recent declines, infrastructure bottlenecks, and regulatory hurdles.
The past seven months reveal a troubling trajectory for broadband penetration. In January 2025, penetration stood at 45.61 percent with 98.87 million subscriptions, driven by internet usage of 1,000,930.6 terabytes, reflecting robust demand.
In February 2025, penetration increased to 46.58 percent, with 100.98 million subscriptions.
By March, penetration rose to 47.73 percent with 103.5 million subscriptions, followed by a marginal increase to 48.15 percent in April with approximately 142 million internet subscribers.
May marked a peak at 48.81 percent with 105.7 million connections, but June saw a slight dip to 48.78 percent, maintaining the same subscription level.
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Alarmingly, July recorded a further decline to 48.01 percent with 104 million subscriptions, marking two consecutive months of regression. This 0.8-point drop from May to July, coupled with a loss of 1.7 million subscriptions, signals a reversal of gains.
Over this period, the average broadband penetration rate was 47.67 percent, with an average of 108.68 million subscriptions. These figures underscore the slow and inconsistent progress, as the average penetration remains well below the 70 percent target, and the high subscription figure in April significantly skews the average, masking the recent downward trend.
Factors slowing penetration
Factors such as the NIN-SIM verification exercise, which disconnected millions of lines in 2024, and frequent fibre cuts (30 to 43 daily due to vandalism, road construction, or theft) have contributed significantly.
The average monthly growth rate of approximately 0.40 percent from January to July is far below the 4.4 percent needed to add 9.5 million subscriptions monthly to reach 70 percent by December, rendering the target mathematically unattainable without unprecedented intervention.
The NBP’s interim milestones further highlight the challenge. The goal of 50 percent penetration by 2023 was missed, with only 43.71 percent achieved, rising slightly to 44.43 percent by December 2024.
Similarly, the target of 70 percent 4G subscriptions by 2023 was unmet, with only 50.85 percent of 169.3 million active subscriptions on 4G by July 2025.
High Right-of-Way (RoW) charges, imposed by most state governments except seven – Zamfara, Katsina, Anambra, Kebbi, Nasarawa, Bauchi, and Adamawa that waived them – inflate fibre deployment costs, while vandalism and unreliable power supply disrupt network reliability.
The absence of a local smartphone assembly plant, combined with naira devaluation, has kept device costs beyond the N18,000 target, limiting access for low-income Nigerians, Jide Awe, IT analyst told BusinessDay.
Digital literacy remains low, particularly in rural areas where 31 states are underserved, and 27 million lack telecom infrastructure.
Regulatory complexities, multiple taxation, and rising cyber threats, as noted in the Deloitte 2024 Nigeria Cybersecurity Outlook Report, deter investment, further straining operators’ margins.
Read also: West African regulators push harmonized broadband mapping to drive investment
Tijani’s initiatives
Despite these challenges, the Ministry of Communications, Innovation, and Digital Economy, led by Bosun Tijani, has introduced transformative initiatives to bridge the gap.
A flagship project is the $2 billion Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) to deploy 90,000km of fibre optic cable, expanding Nigeria’s backbone from 35,000km to 125,000km.
Announced in August 2024, the SPV aims to connect 200,000 institutions and include 50 percent of the 33 million Nigerians currently offline, leveraging funding from the World Bank, African Development Bank, and private partners.
Tijani initially projected a start within six months, but in January 2025, he revised this to the second quarter (Q2) of 2025, with incorporation planned for the third quarter (Q3) and 30,000km to be deployed in the first year.
The project promises to push penetration beyond 70 percent, reduce internet costs by over 60 percent, and add 1.5 percent to GDP per capita, positioning Nigeria as Africa’s third-largest terrestrial fibre backbone.
However, as of August 2025, no ground activity has been reported, raising concerns about delays.
Tijani emphasiSed in August 2024, that, “This extensive coverage will optimise the eight submarine cables in Nigeria, currently at 10 percent capacity,” and in May 2025, he noted the SPV’s governance model, inspired by NIBSS and NLNG, would ensure accountability.
Another critical initiative is Project 774 LG Connectivity, which seeks to connect all 774 local government areas using NIGCOMSAT’s VSAT technology and Galaxy Backbone’s infrastructure.
“With penetration declining and systemic barriers persisting, Nigeria must urgently address affordability, digital literacy, and infrastructure to salvage its broadband dream. Rapid policy reforms, state cooperation, and accelerated project execution are critical to closing the connectivity gap and unlocking the digital economy’s potential,” Awe advised.
Royal Ibeh is a senior journalist with years of experience reporting on Nigeria’s technology and health sectors. She currently covers the Technology and Health beats for BusinessDay newspaper, where she writes in-depth stories on digital innovation, telecom infrastructure, healthcare systems, and public health policies.
