Employees work on the production line at the Martinrea auto parts manufacturing plant in Woodbridge, Ont. Statistics Canada data show the auto assembly and auto parts sectors contributed $19.2-billion to GDP in 2024.Chris Young/The Canadian Press
A think tank that promotes advanced manufacturing in Ontario is pushing back against economic estimates cited by Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe that leave the impression Canada’s canola industry outweighs the auto industry in terms of economic benefits.
Prime Minister Mark Carney is facing pressure from premiers, including Mr. Moe, to lift hefty tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles imposed to protect Canada’s auto sector, because Beijing subsequently retaliated by hitting Canadian canola and other agricultural products with steep levies.
The matter has inadvertently pitted the auto sector against the canola industry as Canada deliberates on how to proceed.
Canola farmers feel their livelihoods are being sacrificed to save the auto industry
A study commissioned by the Canola Council of Canada and published last fall says canola generates $43.7-billion of economic activity in Canada and supports 206,000 jobs. This includes both direct contributions to gross domestic product and estimated indirect benefits.
But the London, Ont.-based Trillium Network for Advanced Manufacturing says these numbers overestimate the indirect economic impact of canola.
Mr. Moe himself repeated these statistics in August when he argued the canola industry is far bigger than other industries including the auto sector.
“This $43- to $45-billion Canadian canola industry that we have [is] employing just over 200,000 people,” the Premier told media last month.
“To put this into context, that is significantly larger than the steel industry, the aluminum industry and the car manufacturing industry combined,” Mr. Moe said.
Brendan Sweeney, managing director of the Trillium Network, says he feels this canola estimate is “an overreach.” He notes that data from Statistics Canada and the federal Industry department show the Canadian auto assembly and auto parts sectors contributed $19.2-billion to GDP in 2024 and directly employed 118,120 people.
By comparison, Mr. Sweeney said, the same data sources show the canola industry contributed $5-billion to GDP and directly employed 21,576 people in 2024. Most canola is grown in the Prairie provinces but some canola processing takes place in central Canada.
The Trillium Network, located at Western University, previously received significant funding from the Ontario government but now operates on research work for all three levels of government in the province.
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Mr. Sweeney said the canola industry study estimates have “been used by some lobbyists and politicians to demonstrate just how much greater the canola industry’s contributions to Canada’s economy are than the $19-billion that the automotive industry contributes directly to Canadian GDP.”
He said the economic contributions of both the auto and canola sectors extend well beyond their direct contributions in terms of jobs and production. That’s because the economic activity supports other jobs in the communities where they operate as well as suppliers. Mr. Sweeney said it’s important not to lump in tangential or peripheral economy activity “that have little to do with the direct activities of the industry in question.” He says the canola industry economic impact study does this.
The Canola Council of Canada, asked for comment on Mr. Sweeney’s criticisms, sent a statement from president Chris Davison who said both the canola and automotive industries are “strong, growing and vibrant industries” and the canola industry impact report was published to highlight its contributions to the Canadian economy.
Mr. Davison said the canola report measures direct and indirect benefits as well as induced benefits, which refer to when people who earn money from an activity spend it in their community, creating more jobs and helping local businesses grow.
He said there has been a significant increase in economic benefits generated by the Canadian canola industry − driven by several factors during the period covered in the report, including “significant industry investment in expansion of domestic canola processing capacity and a rise in canola oil use in biofuels, among them.”