One of my favorite books growing up was a New York Times scrapbook history of football. That’s a big part of why, when the editors of The Athletic asked if I was interested in doing a confidence picks article for the 2025 season, I jumped at the opportunity.

I have been doing these types of picks for more than a decade, dating back to my days at ESPN. My record in this area has been solid. Per NFL Pickwatch, my straight-up record in 2024 was 203-82. The confidence level ranged from 1-10 (with 10 being most confident), and my picks with a 6 or higher confidence level went 84-23.

This year’s confidence picks will go even further than those previous editions. I will now include confidence picks both for straight-up selections (which team will win the game) and for point-spread picks (which team will cover the spread).

Since the idea here is to make high-percentage plays, my picks tend to lean chalk-heavy. I am also very judicious in giving out higher confidence level scores. There will usually be at least three or four of these per week in most weeks. In past years, the volume of higher-confidence level picks generally tends to increase as the season progresses.

As for my research, my picks will reference many advanced metrics from various sources, including TruMedia, PFF and Stathead. I also rely on matchup metrics that are part of my weekly Paydirt subscription service. These are graded on a 1-100 scale, with 100 being most favorable. These articles will also have references to various fantasy football metrics that have strong carryover value to the gambling world.

All odds referenced are courtesy of BetMGM as of publish time. All bets are -110, unless stated otherwise.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5)

The Cowboys are in a bit of an identity crisis. They added George Pickens to upgrade their aerial attack, but what type of offense does Dallas want to operate? Brian Schottenheimer secured the head coaching job in part due to a run-centric approach that clashes with a heavy reliance on Dak Prescott throwing frequently to Pickens and CeeDee Lamb. Dallas will also need to shift its defensive mindset now that Micah Parsons is wearing green and gold.

On the other hand, the Eagles know exactly what type of team they want to be. That said, they may change things up a bit this year by passing more than they did in 2025. This is largely due to a pass coverage schedule this season that favors the aerial attack more than the ground game. Add that to a Philadelphia secondary that gives Prescott the most difficult passing coverage matchup schedule in Week 1, and the Eagles should win and cover.

Pick to win: Eagles
Confidence level: 7

Pick to cover the spread: Eagles
Confidence level: 5

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

In Sao Paulo, Brazil

Statistically speaking, Patrick Mahomes is coming off a terrible season in vertical passing. He ranked 27th in vertical PPG (production on passes with 11-plus air yards) and 28th in stretch vertical PPG (21-plus air yards). Andy Reid is aiming to change this by targeting more downfield throws to Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown, but that could be a problem this week since Worthy and Brown have very difficult matchups.

Jim Harbaugh has talked a lot about leaning more on the pass game this season. That’s part of why the Chargers acquired Keenan Allen, but their go-to target in this game will be the highly reliable Ladd McConkey. The Chiefs’ secondary doesn’t present quite as strong a challenge, and both teams have unfavorable rush defense matchups, so this may boil down to whether Los Angeles will have enough aerial success to offset Kansas City. The matchup numbers suggest that is the case, so this one goes to the Chargers by a small margin.

Pick to win: Chargers
Confidence level: 1

Pick to cover the spread: Chargers (+3 at -102)
Confidence level: 2

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons

The betting public thinks this game will be a shootout. The 47.5-point over-under is currently tied for the second-highest mark in Week 1.

Both teams have superb running backs facing less-than-ideal rush defense matchups, so that’s a push. Tampa Bay would have the passing game edge, except that the Buccaneers won’t have Chris Godwin or Jalen McMillan for this matchup. Tampa Bay is also dealing with an injury to Cade Otton. That places a heavy reliance on Mike Evans and rookie Emeka Egbuka.

Atlanta has its own injury issue with Darnell Mooney, who is questionable for this matchup, but they have an elite pass catcher in Drake London. The Falcons will also benefit from what might be the most favorable pass coverage schedule in Week 1 (97 matchup points). It’s a combination that should lead to a minor NFC South upset.

Pick to win: Falcons 
Confidence level: 3

Pick to cover the spread: Falcons
Confidence level: 4

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) at Cleveland Browns

The Bengals’ Week 1 loss to New England last season was the most recent in a string of subpar starts for Cincinnati. Head coach Zac Taylor is aiming to make sure that doesn’t happen this season. It’s why Joe Burrow has played much more during this preseason than in previous years, and he looked to be in midseason form while doing so. That’s a bad place for the Browns defense to be in, considering that this secondary has three green-rated coverage players (green indicating a highly favorable matchup).

This raises the question of whether Cincinnati’s defense can hold serve. This platoon faces some of the same personnel issues as last season, but new defensive coordinator Al Golden has been working all offseason to devise ways to prevent scoreboard shootouts. Merge that with Cleveland having an offense that just isn’t suited for high-scoring games, and this one goes to the Bengals.

Pick to win: Bengals
Confidence level: 8

Pick to cover the spread: Bengals
Confidence level: 6

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-1)

The very close point spread in this game is reflective of this being one of the toughest picks on the Week 1 slate. The key factor may be what approach Mike McDaniel takes in play-calling this game. Last year, he scaled back the vertical passing attack so much that Tua Tagovailoa, who has excelled in this area in past seasons, ranked 30th in vertical PPG. McDaniel likely did this to keep Tagovailoa healthy, but he may decide to attack more aggressively versus a Colts pass rush that is solid at best.

Indianapolis has a similar quandary with Daniel Jones now locked in as the starting quarterback. Jones gives Shane Steichen the potential for a more consistent passing attack than what the Colts had under Anthony Richardson, but Indianapolis could also utilize Jones’ superb rushing skills as a complement to a Jonathan Taylor-centric attack.

In cases like this, my usual approach is to go with the home team. Since there aren’t any overriding factors to send this pick in another direction, this one goes to Indianapolis.

Pick to win: Colts
Confidence level: 1

Pick to cover the spread: Colts (-1 at -105)
Confidence level: 1

Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5)

These are two southern teams that have been in the league for 31 seasons, yet this will be only the ninth time the Panthers and Jaguars have squared off. It’s a fortuitous time to meet as both squads look to be on the rise this year.

Carolina’s main upside factor is the development of Bryce Young. He was benched early last year, but once Young got a second chance, he made the most of it by throwing a touchdown pass in 10 straight games. For perspective, the only other quarterbacks to do that last season were Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield. Young also receives additional help this year from rookie wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan.

Jacksonville counters that with a great one-two receiving combination of Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter. They also have a top-10 play caller in head coach Liam Coen. That’s an upside play when combined with a 94 score in passing matchup points, and it leads to a Jaguars pick here.

Pick to win: Jaguars
Confidence level: 4

Pick to cover the spread: Jaguars (-3.5 at -105)
Confidence level: 2

Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots (-2.5)

There is a lot to like about the Raiders’ offensive setup. Las Vegas has arguably the best pass-catching tight end in the NFL (Brock Bowers) and a running back who could be the next Barry Sanders (Ashton Jeanty). Quarterback Geno Smith is familiar with Pete Carroll’s system and could benefit from being in Chip Kelly’s up-tempo offense. This rush defense matchup is highly favorable and could be the first step in Jeanty posting league-leading rushing numbers in the first third of the season.

New England has its own superb running back in TreVeyon Henderson. The issue there is that it’s looking like Henderson may end up in an early-season workload split with Rhamondre Stevenson. That’s not a good thing, given that Stevenson has been one of the least productive backs on a per-touch basis the past two seasons. When that is combined with the Patriots’ overall lack of big-play offensive potential, it’s enough to land this pick in the Raiders column.

Pick to win: Raiders
Confidence level: 4

Pick to cover the spread: Raiders (+2.5 at -102)
Confidence level: 5

Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) at New Orleans Saints

Kyler Murray is a multi-talented player. Unfortunately for Arizona, those talents don’t include vertical passing. Murray ranked last in vertical PPG in 2022 and 2023. Those numbers seemingly should have improved in 2024 with the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr., yet Murray was only able to move up to 26th in that metric last season.

Having noted that weakness, Arizona does have Murray, Harrison, James Conner and Trey McBride as potential impact players. New Orleans has Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave, but the Saints offense is piloted by arguably the worst starting quarterback in the NFL in Spencer Rattler. That platoon could see improvement under new head coach Kellen Moore, but the improvement will take time. In the meantime, Arizona’s offensive firepower should be enough to lead the team to victory.

Pick to win: Cardinals
Confidence level: 7

Pick to cover the spread: Cardinals
Confidence level: 4

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at New York Jets

Give the Steelers credit for being decisive in trying to solve their offensive woes from last season. Aaron Rodgers can still throw the ball deep (he was ninth in stretch vertical PPG last year) and should be able to get the most out of that talent with D.K. Metcalf. At the same time, Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth should give offensive coordinator Arthur Smith the type of tight end tandem his playbook is designed for. Pittsburgh also has a superb offensive line and the makings of a very good backfield with Kaleb Johnson and Jaylen Warren.

New York has a very good idea of what type of offense it wants to operate. Aaron Glenn is going to use the Detroit blueprint with Breece Hall and Braelon Allen as the Jets version of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. New York also has a top-15 (and maybe top-10) wide receiver in Garrett Wilson.

The tiebreaker here has to be Justin Fields. His rushing skills are unquestioned, but he ranked 29th or lower in PPG at every route depth level last year. That lack of aerial prowess is more than enough to turn this into a Steelers selection.

Pick to win: Steelers
Confidence level: 6

Pick to cover the spread: Steelers (-3 at +100)
Confidence level: 4

New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-6)

Jayden Daniels was one of the top NFL quarterbacks in 2024, and yet he still has considerable room to grow. Washington started its offseason plan to help Daniels in this area by upgrading the offensive line. The Commanders also added Deebo Samuel to the roster, signed Terry McLaurin to a big-money deal and may have upgraded the ground game with Jacory Croskey-Merritt (who has been flying up the average draft position charts in fantasy). Washington’s defense may also be better than it was last season.

New York made a big change at quarterback with the acquisition of Russell Wilson. He has plenty in the tank on long passes, ranking fourth in vertical PPG and third in stretch vertical PPG. Malik Nabers could see his value increase because of that long pass prowess, but the Giants still have too many areas on this team that need upgrading. Add those factors to this being a Washington home game, and the Commanders are the preferred selection here.

Pick to win: Commanders
Confidence level: 7

Pick to cover the spread: Commanders
Confidence level: 4

Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-8)

Those looking for a good upside play in the NFL futures world should consider Denver at +2500 odds to win the Super Bowl. The Broncos have the makings of a great defense, returning 61.5 of 63 sacks from last season. Bo Nix has shown that he is a prospective franchise quarterback. RJ Harvey gives the Broncos backfield breakaway ability it didn’t have in 2024, and a young group of talented wide receivers can do the same for the Denver passing game.

Tennessee got a huge passing upgrade with the addition of Cam Ward. The problem for Ward is that the Titans just don’t have enough talent around him. That would be an issue regardless of the matchup, but when that is the case for a road battle against that powerhouse Broncos defense, it results in this selection leaning heavily in Denver’s direction.

Pick to win: Broncos
Confidence level: 8

Pick to cover the spread: Broncos 
Confidence level: 6

San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks

Mike Macdonald didn’t get Seattle into the playoffs last year, but he did lead the Seahawks to their first win over San Francisco in seven games. That was Step 1 in what Macdonald hopes is a long-term transformation for this franchise.

Seattle upgraded its defense by collecting defensive linemen like they were Pokémon. The Seahawks secondary has two Pro Bowl-caliber cornerbacks in Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen, and two quality safeties in Julian Love and Coby Bryant. Seattle also has the makings of a strong offense with Sam Darnold, Kenneth Walker III, Cooper Kupp and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. That’s a caliber of personnel that can keep this win streak over San Francisco going.

The 49ers go into this battle with a healthy Christian McCaffrey and Brock Purdy and some talented pass catchers in George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings, but they also have some defensive weaknesses, particularly in the secondary. That secondary, combined with this game being on the road, shifts this pick toward Seattle by a minimal margin.

Pick to win: Seahawks
Confidence level: 3

Pick to cover the spread: Seahawks 
Confidence level: 4

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)

This series used to belong to Green Bay. That hasn’t been the case in recent years, with Detroit winning six of the last seven meetings.

The Lions are going through some major changes this offseason with new offensive and defensive coordinators, but they still have arguably the best collection of offensive talent in the league. They can also generate some upside with Jameson Williams. He was one of only three wide receivers to post a yards per target mark of 10-plus yards last season (minimum 75 targets). New offensive coordinator John Morton has indicated they will call for even more long passes to Williams this year, a trend that could start as early as this week.

Jordan Love was one of only four quarterbacks to rank in the top six in vertical and stretch vertical PPG last season. He did that while dealing with injuries, but starts this season fully healthy. Green Bay also added Matthew Golden to their vertical passing game, which can offset the Williams factor.

This shows the offenses are at a personnel standstill. The same can be said about both defenses, which contain plenty of talent but also have been somewhat inconsistent. That said, adding Parsons on that end should give Green Bay an early boost. This is another contest where the home team gets my pick to win, but in this case, I’ll take the points with the road team to cover.

Pick to win: Packers
Confidence level: 1

Pick to cover the spread: Lions 
Confidence level: 1

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams (-3)

Rams fans have been fretting through the entire preseason about Matthew Stafford’s back injury. There is good news on this front, with the latest reports indicating Stafford is slated to play in this contest. Los Angeles gave Stafford a passing game upgrade via Davante Adams, giving the Rams have one of the best wide receiver tandems in the NFL.

Houston has a great wideout in Nico Collins and added a perfect skill set complement in second-round pick Jayden Higgins. The Texans were also one of only four teams with two players with 10-plus sacks last year, and return both (Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson). That pass rush could make things tough for the Rams offense, but Houston’s offensive line might be the worst in the league. That’s a weakness that will be difficult to overcome on the road, so go with the Rams in this one.

Pick to win: Rams
Confidence level: 2

Pick to cover the spread: Rams (-3 at -105)
Confidence level: 1

Baltimore Ravens (-1) at Buffalo Bills

Week 1 games don’t get any better than this. Lamar Jackson has made the switch to being one of the best passers in the NFL. Derrick Henry hasn’t lost a step, having ranked second in percentage of 10-plus yard rushes among running backs with 250-plus carries last year. Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews give Jackson two top-flight targets, and the Ravens have superb talent on every level of their defense.

Buffalo has reigning MVP Josh Allen and a lot of offensive talent of its own, but the key here will be the Bills defense. Buffalo added a ton of skill on that side of the ball in an effort to keep from getting into the scoreboard shootouts that have cost this team in the postseason. As good as those defensive upgrades are, Baltimore is still capable of turning this game into a shootout. If that happens, the Ravens get the edge due to having a higher caliber of skill position players. That’s enough to put this one in the Baltimore ledger.

Pick to win: Ravens 
Confidence level: 1

Pick to cover the spread: Ravens (-1 at -105)
Confidence level: 1

Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Chicago Bears

The Vikings have dominated this series, winning seven of the past eight and allowing 13 or fewer points in four of the past five games. This point spread shows just how close Chicago may be to ending that trend.

The Bears’ turnaround prospects start with new head coach Ben Johnson. He showed a certain play-calling skill set in Detroit and gets to expand on that with the dual-threat talents that Caleb Williams provides. Johnson has less to work with in the skill position department here, but DJ Moore, D’Andre Swift, Rome Odunze, Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III give Johnson more than ample options to use the entire playbook. The issue for Chicago is that it is facing a Brian Flores defense. Flores is exceptional at getting offenses out of their preferred game plans.

Chicago has a strong defense of its own that will be tested by Kevin O’Connell and company. O’Connell is so adept at his job that he turned Sam Darnold into a Pro Bowl quarterback. Minnesota may also have the most improved offensive line in the NFL, to go along with Justin Jefferson and a superb set of pass catchers.

These all point toward a very close game. That would normally lead to a home team selection, but since the Vikings have dominated this series, they receive the tiebreaker in this one.

Pick to win: Vikings 
Confidence level: 2

Pick to cover the spread: Vikings 
Confidence level: 1

(Photo of Jared Goff: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)