So let’s look into the probable playoff matchups starting on Sunday, Sept. 14. For reference, since this notebook comes out over the weekend, I define “this week” as the prior Sunday through Friday night, and all stats are as of Friday.
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Tankathon check-in
To be clear, no one in the WNBA is currently tanking on purpose (at least, the players aren’t). That being said, let’s see where the teams are right now in the lottery standings and where they project to end up. (The chart is vaguely organized by the rightmost column.)
TeamGames back in lotteryGames back of No. 8 seedSchedule remainingLikely finishDallas Wings—Eliminated@ Los Angeles, vs. PhoenixNo. 1 lottery oddsChicago Sky25.5Eliminated@ Las Vegas (x2), vs. New YorkNo. 2 lottery oddsLos Angeles Sparks39.52.5vs. Dallas, @ Phoenix, vs. Las VegasNo. 3 lottery oddsWashington Mystics12Eliminatedvs. Indiana, @ New YorkNo. 4 lottery oddsConnecticut Sun420.5Eliminatedvs. Phoenix, @ Atlanta, vs. AtlantaWorst lottery oddsSeattle Storm528.5-2vs. Golden StateLow playoff seedIndiana Fever24-2.5@ Washington, vs. MinnesotaLow playoff seed1. Minnesota owns Chicago’s pick
2. Seattle owns Los Angeles’ pick
3. Chicago owns the rights to Connecticut’s pick if the Sun finish worse than the Mercury
4. Washington owns Seattle’s pick
Note that if Los Angeles wins out and Washington goes winless, the Mystics will jump into the third-best lottery odds. The Sparks’ next loss or a Storm win over the Golden State Valkyries on Tuesday would eliminate Los Angeles from the playoffs.
Projecting the first-round playoff matchups
No. 1 seed Minnesota Lynx vs. No. 8 seed Seattle Storm
Since the WNBA moved to a best-of-three format for the first round of the playoffs, this is the first time that the 1-8 matchup hasn’t looked like a complete walkover. It’s still going to be the Lynx nine times out of 10, but the Storm are more than capable of hitting some jump shots and playing smothering defense — just look at how their most recent meeting went.
Minnesota, though, is well-suited to dismantle Seattle: Its cutting takes advantage of how much Seattle struggles with defensive rotations, and the rim protection forwards Napheesa Collier and Alanna Smith always provide keeps the Storm from having an easy path to points when they otherwise shoot themselves out of games. Collier would need to struggle and Seattle would need to finally solve its issues with help assignments for this series to get interesting.
No. 2 Las Vegas Aces vs. No. 7 Indiana Fever
In theory, Atlanta could be the No. 2 seed if the Aces drop one of their two remaining games against Chicago or their finale against the Sparks. That seems unlikely. Golden State could also be the No. 7 seed if the Valkyries lose to the Storm and the Fever beat both Washington and Minnesota, which also seems unlikely. (Seattle could also be the No. 7 seed, but I’d argue that is even less likely.)
Las Vegas and Indiana haven’t played since the Aces turned their season around in late July, so it’s hard to take much from any of their previous matchups. For the Fever, Caitlin Clark started one game and Aari McDonald two, plus Sophie Cunningham was active. For the Aces, Jewell Loyd was still in the starting lineup, and those games were before they fixed their defensive rotations. With how well the frontcourt pairing of A’ja Wilson and NaLyssa Smith has played over the past month and a half, the Fever will be hard-pressed to get easy looks without guard Kelsey Mitchell getting a switch and being able to create into iso. And even that slows down the offense in a way that gets the Fever out of flow and plays into Vegas’ style.
The Indiana role players will need to hit a lot of spot-up shots for this series not to be over quickly.
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No. 3 Atlanta Dream vs. No. 6 Golden State Valkyries
Again, Las Vegas could be the No. 3 seed if the Dream sweep Connecticut and the Aces drop a game to Chicago or Los Angeles, and/or Indiana could be the No. 6 seed. But, again, that’s unlikely.
Despite the Valkyries’ pluckiness of late — winning games with Kaila Charles starting at the two and Iliana Rupert at the four — the health of guard Tiffany Hayes and forward Cecilia Zandalasini feels paramount. Hayes is out for another week, and there have been zero updates on Zandalasini. Considering that the team’s offensive rating falls sharply when at least one is unavailable and that Golden State hasn’t beaten a top-four team since Zandalasini hit a game-winner in Atlanta in late July, that will probably be a make-or-break injury report.
Without those two, this is a bit of a nightmare matchup for the Valks as currently constructed. Jordin Canada is maybe the toughest matchup for a guard like Veronica Burton in the league, Brionna Jones and Naz Hillmon move too well in space for Temi Fágbénlé or Rupert to have their usual advantages in the frontcourt, and Brittney Griner defeats the purpose of Monique Billings as a backup center.
Having shot creators Hayes and Zandalasini on the wing would change the math and force the Dream to get uncomfortable with their help points. But without them, seemingly the only way Atlanta won’t sweep is by shooting itself out of a game.
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No. 4 Phoenix Mercury vs. No. 5 New York Liberty
If New York guard Sabrina Ionescu is at even 80% for this series, the Liberty will advance by a decent margin. The Mercury won the season series 3-1, and that loss was the one game Liberty stars Ionescu, Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones were all healthy for.
On the other hand, this should be fun either way. Phoenix can win both shootouts and sluggish affairs, with both streaky shot-making from the likes of guards Kahleah Copper and Sami Whitcomb and one of the W’s best defensive shells. There’s pathways to either team winning the frontcourt matchup: Natasha Mack forced Jones into a poor showing just last week, and the Alyssa Thomas-Stewart matchup is one that still has an outsized effect on the rest of the game, depending on whether either can force the other to rely on help.
All of that makes Copper and point guard Monique Akoa Makani that much more important. Copper getting a good 20 points — likely against Natasha Cloud — and Akoa Makani keeping Ionescu off balance would make things extremely difficult for New York because that would allow the Mercury to stay within their system on offense and stay out of emergency rotations on defense, respectively. Achieving neither would effectively guarantee that the Liberty advance, barring Mercury forward Satou Sabally remembering how to move how she did in Dallas.
If Ionescu isn’t up to par, though, this becomes tough sledding for New York. The team’s biggest problem all year, aside from overall health, is that she is its only backcourt player capable of consistently creating good offense. Is her playing in a diminished role enough to counteract some of that issue? We might find out.
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