MLB Picks Today:

Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, July 21.

Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.

 

6:40 PM Eastern

San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins 

Marlins starting pitcher Eury Perez may be due for some regression after allowing just one run across his past three starts, totaling 18 innings, but he had allowed at least three runs in three of his previous four starts. Padres starting pitcher Randy Vasquez has a low 3.80 ERA, but a 5.33 fielding independent with 4.8 strikeouts and 4.4 walks per nine innings.

MLB Pick: San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.8)

7:07 PM Eastern

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays 

Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman has had a down season for his standards with a 4.19 ERA this season, allowing nearly 1.8 home runs per nine innings at home. He faces a Yankees lineup that leads the American League with just under 5.3 runs per game. Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Rodon owns a 3.08 ERA with a 3.59 fielding independent and faces a Blue Jays lineup that is averaging over 5.3 runs per game at home, which ranks second in the league.

MLB Picks: Yankees Moneyline -114 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Yankees -128 and Total 8.8)

7:15 PM Eastern

San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves 

Braves starting pitcher Bryce Elder has struggled this season, posting a 5.65 ERA with 1.8 home runs ad 3.2 walks per nine innings. Giants starting pitcher Hayden Birdsong has a 4.11 ERA while being backed up by a Giants bullpen whose 3.17 ERA is the best in baseball. He faces a Braves offense that is 21st in the league with less than 4.2 runs per game.

MLB Pick: Giants Moneyline +121 (Greg’s Handicap Giants -104)

8:40 PM Eastern

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Colorado Rockies 

The Colorado Rockies are likely to start Austin Gomber on the mound on Monday, posting a 5.65 ERA with 1.9 home runs and 2.2 walks per nine innings. Cardinals starting pitcher Michael Michael McGreevy has a 4.22 ERA in his four-appearance sample size this season, with 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed. He is backed up by a lineup that is averaging over 4.5 runs per game, which is 13th in the league.

MLB Pick: Cardinals Moneyline -130 (Greg’s Handicap Cardinals -178)

9:40 PM Eastern

Houston Astros vs. Arizona Diamondbacks 

Diamondbacks starting pitcher Zac Gallen has struggled to a 5.40 ERA with at least four runs allowed in five of his past seven starts. Astros starting pitcher Colton Gordon has had his own struggles with a 4.67 ERA with 1.7 home runs allowed per nine innings. Gordon is backed up by a bullpen that ranks fourth in the league with a 3.36 ERA, while the Diamondbacks 4.95 ERA ranks 26th.

MLB Picks: Astros Moneyline +136 and Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Astros +123 and Total 9.3)

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Seattle Mariners 

Mariners starting pitcher George Kirby has been better than his 4.50 ERA with a 3.78 fielding independent with 9.3 home runs and two walks allowed per nine innings. Brandon Woodruff has 18 strikeouts in his first two starts across 10 1/3 innings, this after missing the past year and a half due to injury. He is supported by an offense that is averaging 5.4 runs per game away from home, the highest road offensive output in the National League.

MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Seattle Mariners Over 6.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 7.3)