AFC East meets AFC South as the Miami Dolphins visit the Indianapolis Colts for an NFL Week 1 clash. Both teams finished 8-9 in their respective divisions in 2024 and missed out on the playoffs. Miami has been the better team overall over the last few seasons, but has only won one game against Indianapolis over the last decade. Tua Tagovailoa will start his sixth season under center for the Dolphins, while Daniel Jones gets his first regular-season start for the Colts after spending six seasons with the New York Giants.

Kickoff from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis is set for 1 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+. Indianapolis is a 1-point favorite in the latest Dolphins vs. Colts odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 46.5. The Colts are slight -111 money line favorites (risk $111 to win $100), while the Dolphins are -108 underdogs. Before making any Colts vs. Dolphins picks, make sure you check out the picks from the SportsLine projection model. 

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Here are SportsLine’s model’s best bets for Dolphins vs. Colts on Sunday:

Dolphins +1

Indianapolis has won four of the last five meetings with Miami, but the Dolphins enter Week 1 with an edge on offense. Even with De’Von Achane and Tyreek Hill dealing with preseason ailments, Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offense is expected to be a fully-formed force in Indy on Sunday. The Colts offense will likely still be ironing out the kinks with Jones taking over under center. Miami was 7-10-0 ATS last year, but the model has the Dolphins covering the spread in 51% of simulations. Watch Dolphins vs. Colts on CBS or stream on Paramount+. New Paramount+ users can sign up here and get a free one-week trial.

Over 46.5

The Colts defense ranked fourth-worst overall in the league last season, allowing 361.2 total yards per game. The Over hit in 10 of Indy’s games last season, including five in a row to end the season. Miami’s d-corps saw some turnover this offseason and youngster like Chop Robinson and rookie Kenneth Grant are growing into their roles. The SportsLine model has the Over hitting in 62% of simulations.

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