Over the Labour Day long weekend (August 28 – September 2), Abacus Data surveyed 1,500 Canadian adults following news that Canada’s economy contracted for the first time in nearly two years. The result? A subtle but meaningful shift in public mood.
Here’s what stands out:
Just over 1 in 3 Canadians believe things are headed in the right direction, while 48% think the country is on the wrong track, virtually unchanged for weeks. But if confidence isn’t falling, it isn’t rising either. Meanwhile, perceptions of international affairs, of the world (13%) and the U.S. (14%), remain particularly bleak.
Affordability remains the dominant worry, 61% cite it among their top three concerns. But attention to the broader economy is ticking up, with 39% ranking it as a top priority (up from 36% just two weeks earlier). That nearly matches the share naming “Trump and his administration”, a telling indicator that economic anxiety is becoming more front-of-mind as the trade conflict impacts macro-economic and micro-economic perceptions. Healthcare (33%) and housing (30%) complete the top four concerns.
Approval for the Carney government now rests at 48%, down a point, with disapproval rising to 30%. Not yet alarm bells, but a quiet decline in momentum nonetheless.
Carney remains net-positive, with 48% favourable vs. 35% unfavourable, but his net rating has dropped from +21 in mid-July to +13 now. A slow but widespread erosion, especially notable across regions and demographic groups.
Among decided voters, the Liberals lead at 43%, up four points, while the Conservatives’ support falls to 40%. Other parties trail: NDP (6%), Bloc (7%), Greens (2%), PPC (1%). The Liberals hold strength in Ontario and Quebec; Conservatives, in B.C. and the Prairies.
On the cost of living, Conservatives lead 38% to 29%. On the economy, they hold a 43% to 36% advantage. Immigration, too, is a major Conservative edge (hence this). But Liberals maintain authority on climate change (33% vs. Conservatives’ 12%), healthcare (33% vs. 24%), and U.S.–Canada relations (55% vs. 23%). We’re seeing a country split not just along partisan lines, but across issue perceptions and priorities.
The summer lull may be over. Beneath surface stability, public anxiety about the economy is rising, support for Carney is softening, and political direction is in flux. With GDP contracting and Parliament returning, this fall may bring sharper shifts in public opinion and political momentum.
Curious for the full breakdown, you can get the full details below.
Read the full poll report: https://abacusdata.ca/abacus-data-poll-carneys-liberals-regain-lead-as-economy-woes-grow/