NFL insider gives bold prediction about Arch Manning’s draft stock originally appeared on The Sporting News

Arch Manning’s performance against San Jose State offered a glimpse of why his name still carries weight in NFL Draft circles, but also reminded scouts that his development is far from perfect.

After a shaky outing at Ohio State the week prior, Manning responded with one of his sharpest collegiate games. He accounted for five total touchdowns in Texas’ 38-7 win. His composure was better with calmer footwork, quicker decisions, and a willingness to test windows that previously struggled with.

NFL evaluators will take note of the bounce-back. Manning showed athleticism on a 20-yard touchdown run and also spread the ball to seven different receivers. But for all the positives, flaws remain on tape.

Manning forced a throw into the end zone for an interception late in the first half, and there were still moments when he locked onto his first read too long. Those habits combined with average ball placement remain key to how front offices will grade him.

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“Manning was definitely less nervous at the start of this game, showing much calmer footwork than we saw from him early in Columbus,” The Athletic’s NFL insider Nick Baumgardner noted. “He was still guilty of holding onto the ball too long at times, getting stuck on one read — or stuck in general. He’s also had some ball placement issues over Texas’ first two games, caused by not properly stepping into throws. However, Manning has delivered some terrific throws in 2025 (including last week at Ohio State, believe it or not).”

“San Jose State is hardly a national title contender, but Manning played with great confidence and was able to rip the ball into some tight windows for big plays. He did have a terrible interception into the end zone at the end of the first half, as he was desperately trying to avoid a sack. It was a better day overall for Manning, but he has plenty of work ahead before getting a chance to reestablish his NFL draft stock.” 

What complicates the narrative is a potential health question. Broadcast replays appeared to show Manning favoring his shoulder. Both Manning and coach Steve Sarkisian downplayed any issue. If accuracy concerns are tied to an injury, that context matters for scouts. If not, the inconsistencies become harder to excuse.

Ultimately, Manning’s rebound helped his NFL Draft stock. He reminded decision-makers that he can command an offense with confidence.

The upcoming SEC opener at Florida will be  a true litmus test for Manning against stronger competition. Evaluators will determine whether Saturday’s step forward was the start of a trend or a longer developmental curve.

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