Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s ‘Daily Ramblings’.
Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Puneet Sharma, and Dobber
—
The 2025-26 Fantasy Guide is available for download! Projections by team and by point totals, sleepers, drafted players, rookies, goalies, advanced stats, and much more!
The French-language version of the Guide can be purchased here.
—
1. Now that I’ve experienced a few mock drafts this offseason, I am getting a sense of where many players are being valued. That means I’m ready to offer my opinions on players drafted too high and too low. An addition to that, I’ve also mixed in a few observations on where certain positions are being targeted and what might be ideal in those spots.
PLAYERS DRAFTED OR RANKED TOO HIGH
Matthew Tkachuk (Yahoo ADP 24.5)
This is the low-hanging fruit of this section. Tkachuk is here until we know more about his injury situation. He wants to continue playing as long as he can, but he won’t be able to put off surgery for a torn adductor forever (one report even suggesting he has already undergone the surgery). If he postpones surgery, then he could be a steal at that position. However, the lingering injury might diminish his production and cause so much discomfort that he is forced into surgery. That’s not a gamble I’m willing to take with a high pick. Let someone else take that chance, or else wait for him to fall several rounds. (sep6)
2. Mackenzie Blackwood (Yahoo ADP 26.5)
Although Blackwood is not as terrible a goalie as Alexandar Georgiev was, this has a bit of the vibes of drafting a goalie high based on the team. Is Colorado still a legitimate Stanley Cup contender? I still support Zero G and the idea of waiting until later to draft goalies, so I suppose Blackwood is the easiest target of this early-round group. Prior to 2024-25, Blackwood had not been an established starter – mainly a timeshare goalie. That may have had to do with some of the teams he played for. That being said, he seems too unproven to be in this spot.
In case you’re wondering, the first tier of goalies on Yahoo consists of Connor Hellebuyck, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Jake Oettinger, Blackwood, and Igor Shesterkin. All are generally being drafted in the first three rounds. (sep6)
[Follow the link for more…]
3. PLAYERS DRAFTED OR RANKED TOO LOW
Adam Fox (Yahoo Ranking: 66)
If you discover you need defensemen before the midway point of your draft, why reach for Hedman when you can wait a bit for Fox? The drafters have a better read on this than the Yahoo rankers, as Fox’s ADP is 55. His stock has fallen because his scoring regressed as the Rangers did last season. Yet over the last three seasons, Fox has outscored Hedman slightly, and he’s also seven years younger. Even last season, they weren’t that far apart. You can see that for yourself in the Frozen Tools Player Compare.
In my recent mock draft, the following defensemen were drafted within a round and a half of each other in Rounds 6 and 7 (picks 60-80): MacKenzie Weegar, Jake Sanderson, Noah Dobson, Roman Josi, Shea Theodore, Dougie Hamilton, Miro Heiskanen, Mikhail Sergachev, and Brandon Montour. These seem like ideal D2’s in 12-team leagues, so look out for that run. Of that group, I like Sanderson for the pure scoring upside, while Weegar is the best for taking care of peripheral categories. (sep6)
4. Robert Thomas (Yahoo ADP: 40)
I actually don’t think the ADP is too low, but I think it will decline when it shouldn’t. In my recent mock draft, I was able to draft Thomas in the seventh round (78th overall). This seems far too low for a player that has cracked 80 points for two consecutive seasons – even if the total is assist-heavy and the peripherals aren’t super high.
I believe this had to do with the number of centers still available at that time, which included Dylan Larkin (ADP 71.5) and Roope Hintz (ADP 86.0). John Tavares and Elias Pettersson were also drafted just a few picks before Thomas. With that in mind, it might be wise to look for centers after the first six rounds or so – once you have taken care of drafting a defenseman or two. You might find some great value. Also note that Yahoo tends to place forwards with C/W eligibility in the C position of teams, which could allow you an extra center. (sep6)
[Follow the link for more…]
5. In yesterday’s Ramblings, I looked at a few players I thought have overvalued Average Draft Positions (ADP) so far this fantasy hockey draft season, including Mikko Rantanen and Victor Hedman. Today’s Ramblings (below) will go in the other direction and look at some undervalued ADPs.
These are based off my early personal projections and use six skater categories: goals, assists, power-play points, shots, hits, and blocks. We are using ADP data from Underdog Fantasy and Fantrax, where the former is a points system that uses those six categories, and the latter includes all varieties of fantasy formats.
For the uninitiated, this is just a first run for my projections (things like age adjustments and adding rookies still need to happen, and all players are projected for 82 games played) so there will be some changes. Also, just because I think a player is undervalued doesn’t mean they should be taken 3-4 rounds earlier than their ADP – that’s what makes them undervalued! Data from Evolving Hockey. (sep5)
***
For more in-depth breakdowns as well as projections for the entire league, be sure to pick up a copy of the 2025-26 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide, now available in the Dobber Shop!
***
6. Dylan Larkin (Detroit Red Wings)
Underdog ADP: 70 (Centre 18)
Fantrax ADP: 81.5 (Centre 23)
My Rank: Centre 10
Over the last three seasons, Larkin is 1 of just 16 forwards to average at least 30 goals, 40 assists, 25 PPPs, 225 shots, and 80 hits+blocks every 82 games. This is the full list:
What separates Larkin from similar centres like Aleksander Barkov and Wyatt Johnston is shot volume. Barkov has seen four straight seasons of shot volume decline, averaging 200 shots every 82 games over the last two years, while Johnston has averaged 209 shots over the last two seasons. Larkin, meanwhile, is at 249 shots per 82 games over his last two campaigns. Being able to put up 40-50 extra shots with great power-play production and reasonable hit/block totals makes up for not being a 40-goal, 90-point guy. Larkin has been remarkably consistent and has yet to have a genuine career year that top options can have. Depending on how a fantasy draft unfolds, I would be more than fine skipping over the Nick Suzuki/Elias Pettersson/Mark Scheifele/Barkov tier going in rounds 4-6 and grabbing Larkin in the sixth or seventh round. (sep5)
7. Sean Monahan (Columbus Blue Jackets)
Underdog ADP: 165.8 (Centre 40)
Fantrax ADP: 158.2 (Centre 43)
My Rank: Centre 29
Over his last two seasons, Monahan has averaged 27 goals, 43 assists, 21 PPPs, 179 shots, 47 blocks, and 35 hits every 82 games. That is solid across-the-board coverage, which is reflected in my projection for him this season:
Of course, this is an 82-game projection, and Monahan has averaged 57 games per season over the last four years. He did have a full season in 2023-24 but missed 28 games in 2024-25. His ability to stay on the ice is paramount here because there are very few players drafted in the top-175 picks will be a top-175 player if they miss one-third of the season, and Monahan is not one of those few players.
Ice time matters here, too – he skated over 19:30 per game until his injury in early January but was at 17:01 per game in April when he and Boone Jenner were both in the lineup. My projection has him around 19 minutes again but that is likely too high if the team has its full complement of forwards.
There is a lot of risk with Monahan because there is a massive difference between him playing 60 games at 17 minutes a night and 80 games at 19 minutes a night. For posterity: If I adjust him to 17 minutes a game, he’s my 40th centre. If he can stay healthy, he’s being drafted at a reasonable spot, but with a TOI injection there’s a lot of draft value here. (sep5)
[Follow the link for more…]
8. Over my previous Ramblings, I looked at some of my preseason projections thus far. We went alphabetically by team with the first group looking at names like Leo Carlsson and Connor Bedard, the second group covering options like Thomas Harley and Trent Frederic, the third group had intriguing players like Luke Evangelista and Mathew Barzal, and we finished with the likes of Filip Chytil and Logan Cooley. Go check those out for some projections discussion.
Keeping those projections in mind, I want to look at Average Draft Positions (ADP). A few weeks ago, I gave some early ADP thoughts (they can be read here) but that was before I had finished my projections. Now that they’re mostly done (still some adjustments to make and rookies to add), I want to look at ADPs again. Today, we’re going to target players I believe are being overvalued.
As always, this is just my view on things, my projections will change over the next month, and the type of league will greatly affect some players’ ADPs. For today, I am considering six skater categories: goals, assists, power-play points, shots, hits, and blocks. Let’s start with Mikko Rantanen below:
9. Mikko Rantanen (Dallas Stars)
Underdog ADP: 11.1 (Winger 5)
Fantrax ADP: 13.1 (Winger 6)
In a 12-team league, Rantanen likely isn’t making it past the turn, so anyone wanting to draft him should be ready to use their first-round pick on him. Let me say this: that is a steep price to pay.
Here is how Rantanen’s production fared over his final two regular seasons with Colorado, and how he fared in Dallas between the regular season and playoffs, on an 82-game basis:
That is 21 fewer points every 82 games, and a 27% drop in shot volume. It is… a lot.
There are two big issues facing Rantanen:
He is going to see a big ice time drop. In Colorado last year, he skated 35.9% of the team’s even-strength ice time, per Frozen Tools. In Dallas, that dropped to 31%. An average team will get a little over 51:30 per game in even-strength ice time, so that percentage drop in EVTOI for Rantanen is about 2:30 per game in even strength ice time alone. He got significantly elevated usage in the playoffs (34.5%), but even that was far behind what he got in the 2024 postseason with the Avalanche (37.4%). Even if he were to drop just 3% from what he got in Colorado, it’s over 1:30 per game. Barring a drastic change in Dallas’s entire approach, the best-case scenario is losing 90 seconds per game in even-strength ice time, and the worst-case scenario is double that.
In the 2025 postseason, Rantanen saw about two-thirds of Dallas’s power-play ice time. In the 2024 postseason, that number was over 83% for Rantanen in Colorado. It was about the same difference during the regular season. Colorado’s top PP unit was more proficient last year, and if that top PP unit in Dallas doesn’t get a lot better this season, he’s looking at a PPTOI drop on top of a team efficiency drop.
Dallas is a great offensive team, so maybe there is a bit of efficiency that will help soften the blow, but the fact is that if Rantanen is lucky, he’ll only lose about two minutes per game in offensive ice time, and there are scenarios where it’s three minutes or more. If Rantanen can stay around the 20-minute mark, maybe he can push to 100 points in a great year. If he’s closer to 19 minutes and just has a normal (for him) season by efficiency, he is an 80- to 90-point player who doesn’t hit or block much. Dallas generates way fewer shots than Colorado, and Rantanen isn’t a big shot volume option on a per-minute basis. If he doesn’t hit, block, or shoot a lot, and loses 15-25 points from his Colorado days, how much really separates him from wingers going in the next 1-2 rounds like Kyle Connor, William Nylander, Sam Reinhart, Artemi Panarin, or Jesper Bratt? (sep4)
10. Alex Ovechkin
Underdog ADP: 36.2 (Winger 17)
Fantrax ADP: 40.8 (Winger 24)
It probably shouldn’t need to be said, but we’ll say it anyway: no matter the player, if someone sets a career-high at the age of 39, as Ovechkin did when he shot 18.6% in 2024-25, then it should be a big red flag. He had gone four straight years shooting 15% or less and averaged 13.6% in that span. Ovechkin also managed 26.5 shot attempts per 60 minutes of ice time, his highest mark in nearly a decade (29.1 in 2015-16). A normal year for his goal scoring at this stage of his career would have meant 31 goals instead of 44. It would still have him push for 40 goals in an 82-game year, so that’s something to keep in mind, but it’s still a lot of goals.
Like Rantanen, there is also an ice time concern. Ovechkin averaged 17:43 per game last season, by far the lowest mark of his career and 90 seconds per game lower than the year before. Even at just 17:30 per game, with regressions in shot volume and shooting percentage, there isn’t much wiggle room to have a down year. Any sort of player or team regression, at that level of ice time, is very bad news.
I don’t have any real problem with taking Ovechkin in the fourth round, but it’s one of those things where it’s hard to see a huge profit. Maybe he keeps up career-best percentages and decade-high shot rates, but at the age of 40, I’m going to bet against that, and would rather wait a round or two and grab younger players like Dylan Guenther or Seth Jarvis. (sep4)
[Follow the link for more…]
11. As mentioned, I have been previewing my preseason projections, showing one player per team as we make our way through the league. The first Ramblings covered Anaheim through Colorado, the second was Detroit through New Jersey, and the third was Nashville through Seattle. Today, we are finishing things off by going from St. Louis through to Washington and Winnipeg.
As a quick heads up for those that haven’t read these projections Ramblings yet: Rookies haven’t been added, all players are projected for 82 games played, and there are going to be some tweaks made for age-related progression or decline.
St. Louis Blues
The Robert Thomas train has officially left the station now that he has back-to-back 20-goal, 60-assist seasons. This projection thinks things will get even better:
This raised an eyebrow for me because it would give him an 18.1% shooting percentage, and projecting a player for a career-best shooting percentage is always precarious. What is helping here is that my projections believe the Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg breakouts are definitely real and that Jim Montgomery’s impact on the offence (a bottom-5 team in the 100 games before he arrived and a top-5 team after) is mostly genuine. They probably won’t be a top-5 team offensively, but they won’t be awful, and just staying in the top half of the league is enough to juice Thomas’ numbers.
Personally, I would feel a lot more comfortable penciling Thomas in for 25 goals than threatening 30, but the Blues’ forward group is very good, and if defencemen like Broberg and Cam Fowler can repeat what they did last year, Thomas could be in for another career year. (sep2)
12. Tampa Bay Lightning
One player I’m excited to see in a new location is Jakob Pelletier. I think there is a good player here, so I wanted to see what his projection looked like, and it’s nothing special:
An 82-game pace of 11 goals and 12 assists with low peripherals isn’t much. The assumption is he’s given fourth-line minutes for the majority of the season, and that means 10-11 minutes a game at even strength with minimal power play time. It just isn’t enough to sustain any kind of breakout.
For Pelletier to be fantasy-relevant, he needs at least third line/second power play minutes. If he can get 12-13 minutes a game at even strength and a minute per game of power-play time, then we’re talking about a potential 15-goal, 40-point player who can cross 100 shots and a hit per game. There would be depth value in multi-cat formats in this instance, but the additions of Yanni Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand, on top of young players like Conor Geekie and Gage Goncalves, gives Pelletier a lot of hurdles to clear. (sep2)
[Follow the link for more…]
13. Carey Price is no longer a Montreal Canadien. Well, he hasn’t played a game for the Habs since the 2021-22 season due to a career-ending knee injury, so the trade of his contract with a 2026 fifth-round pick to San Jose for defenseman Gannon Laroque is mainly a paper transaction. The Habs will no longer need to use LTIR, which has been the case since after their 2021 Stanley Cup Final run because of the injuries to Price and Shea Weber. Laroque split last season between the AHL and ECHL, so his chances of playing in the NHL this season seem low.
The rebuilding Sharks have more than enough space to store Price’s $10.5 million cap hit, which they will have on the books for one more season. The Sharks will be able to store the contract on LTIR if they wish, while they could also trade some veterans at the deadline without risking falling below the cap floor.
All of this is to say that there are practically no immediate fantasy implications to this trade, but maybe some future ripple effects. (sep6)
14. The Flames have re-signed Connor Zary to a three-year contract with a cap hit of $3.775 million. The three years represents a bridge deal for Zary, as it sounds like he and the Flames couldn’t agree on how much he is worth. In his two NHL seasons, Zary has scored at between a 40-45-point pace. He has missed significant time due to injuries, though, having never played more than 63 games in an NHL season. At the end of the contract, Zary will still have one more year of RFA status left.
With Zary off the board, only six unsigned RFAs remain. I wrote about three of them along with Zary in a Ramblings a week ago. (sep6)
15. Following up on last week’s first mock draft that I completed on Yahoo, I have had a chance to run through a few more on Yahoo and Fantrax, and I have some thoughts on drafting and the current player layout for the year that I would like to share.
At the top of the draft this year, it really feels to me like there’s a top tier of five players, including Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon, Nikita Kucherov, and Cale Makar (loosely in that order). In bangers leagues, Brady Tkachuk jumps up into that top tier as well. After them, there’s another three players who could be in that top-tier, but come with a little more risk, namely Auston Matthews, Kirill Kaprizov, and David Pastrnak.
However, after that the options for a top-10 or top-15 pick feel rather uninspiring. Do you take another defenseman off the board, with one of Quinn Hughes, Rasmus Dahlin, or Zach Werenski? Their teams leave a lot to be desired though, and you’re leaving either points or peripherals on the board if you take one of them. Do you take a forward for a more well-rounded selection? There’s lots of options, but no sure things. Mikko Rantanen, Jack Eichel, Jack Hughes, Mitch Marner, Kyle Connor… perhaps even Sidney Crosby if you think there’s another superstar season in there.
There’s always the option to grab a goalie this early, and while I haven’t taken one in the top-10 since Henrik Lundqvist back about a decade ago, I do understand the appeal in trying to solidify a somewhat lopsided position. Even in the top players though, I find there’s more variability from year to year. As the saying goes, “you can’t win the season with your first few picks, but you can lose it”, and I think about that a lot when it comes to picking goalies. I would rather keep myself with the pack early on, and then make some smarter goalie picks in the mid-rounds once the tiers are nearly empty. It often means I don’t end up with a goalie until pick-80 at the absolute earliest. (sep3)
16. Looking back at the skaters, and into the top-10, seeing Cale Makar, Kirill Kaprizov, and Jack Eichel ranked in the top-10 on Fantrax (and in the top-15 on Yahoo) reminds me how lucky I got in last year’s draft for one of my leagues, coming out with all three. We’ll see if we can find a few players from next year’s top-10 list outside the top-15 or top-25 this year.
My best guesses for those that could make the jump into the top-10 are Mitch Marner, Tage Thompson, and Connor Bedard, plus Matthew Tkachuk who should come into next season healthy, but he’s currently ranked at 19th on Yahoo and 36th on Fantrax. He’s due back around the Olympic break though, so if it’s a one-year league, then I have a very tough time spending that much on a player who will miss half the season, and then come back and possibly be a step behind his usual self. Maybe if he drops past pick 50 then I would begin to consider him.
To continue on with that there are quite a few wingers in that next range that feel like they could be top-15 players, but there’s no guarantee that they don’t finish closer to 60th. Between Jason Robertson, William Nylander, Sam Reinhart, Jake Guentzel, Filip Forsberg, Martin Necas, and more, there are just too many similar options. That’s not even including the centres around that tier, including Tim Stutzle, Robert Thomas, Sebastian Aho, Brayden Point, J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson and more.
The best I can say about that tier, is to know your league categories, and to not outsmart yourself. Don’t get too cocky and think that Timo Meier is a good idea over most of these guys like I did last year. Make the safe and smart pick here, and save the big swings for later.
With that in mind, that’s why goalies slip down my list, though I would still take Jake Oettinger or Andrei Vasilevskiy if they fell into my lap at pick-40. Same idea with Evan Bouchard or Adam Fox at 50th, but I’m not reaching into the top-20 for any of them.
I’ll pick up with some thoughts on the latter half of the draft in next week’s Rambles. (sep3)
17. We received some more clarity on the rule changes for the upcoming season, including LTIR rules, salary retention, the removal of paper loans, and more.
The big thing this will likely affect for fantasy is that players like Jackson Blake last year, who was sent back and forth to the minors a few dozen times, is not going to see that kind of treatment again. It will mean there will be less NA status stashes to take advantage of in Yahoo, and for those of us in dynasty leagues, less worry that a paper move is going to be a longer-term demotion. (sep3)
18. Here are some goalie tandems I am watching this year:
Columbus Blue Jackets
On paper, Elvis Merzlikins enters camp as the starter, but Jet Greaves has shown enough in limited action last year to keep things interesting. This could evolve as the season wears on, especially if Merzlikins struggles with consistency, which has been the story of his career. Keep an eye here, it may not be as straightforward as it looks in September.
Buffalo Sabres
Yes, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is expected to carry the load. Yes, Alex Lyon is the backup. And yes, on paper this looks simple and could very well be however, this is Buffalo we are talking about. If you have followed the Sabres’ crease over the years, you know better than to call anything safe. Sometimes the best fantasy advice with Buffalo goaltenders is to expect the unexpected. (sep1)
19. Detroit Red Wings
The addition of John Gibson makes this situation fascinating. The question is not whether he is talented, it is which version of Gibson shows up: healthy or injured. Cam Talbot is still capable when managed properly, so a 1A/1B setup is not out of the realm of possibility. Neither goalie is young anymore, but a split could actually keep them both fresh and give Detroit steady play throughout the season.
Edmonton Oilers
Many expected the Oilers to grab a goalie this summer, but they stuck with Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard. As a former Skinner owner in a few of my leagues, I can tell you the early goals against were a daily stress test. If you draft him, make sure your heart rate monitor is charged. (sep1)
20. And before I tie a bow on it for this week I wanted to share two players I have found myself drafting often in Mock Drafts, primary because I also feel that they may have some sort of a bound back season.
Owen Tippett is the type of player who impacts the game in ways that are not always reflected in the box score. His peripheral stats alone, especially his shot rate, is a good read to draft him. However, in addition to that he was also just outside of the top 10 in the league in controlled entries that led to scoring chances, which shows his ability to consistently push the puck forward and generate opportunities for himself and his linemates. John Tortorella had little tolerance for Tippett and his lack of structure with the puck, hence the sharp drop in his number from the previous season. Tippett’s underlying metrics show that he is better than a 43-point player. With Rick Tocchet now leading Philadelphia and known as a player’s coach, this could provide Tippett the right environment to rebound. The most important factor remains whether Tippett earns a role on the top power play unit, as that would naturally boost his production. However, the arrival of Trevor Zegras may limit his ceiling. This is something worth monitoring.
21. Mika Zibanejad
I still believe Mika Zibanejad has plenty left to be an intriguing bounce back candidate despite a difficult season in New York. The entire Rangers roster underperformed and dealt with significant turnover from Jacob Trouba, Chris Kreider, K’Andre Miller and Filip Chytil. That alone would make it challenging for any player to find consistency. Zibanejad posted 62 points which was his lowest output in four years, and his shooting percentage was also the lowest since joining the Rangers. The encouraging sign was the chemistry he developed with JT Miller, producing 32 points in 31 games when the two played together. With Mike Sullivan stepping in as the new coach in New York, Zibanejad has a strong opportunity for a rebound season. (sep1)
Have a good week, folks!
Thanks for continuing to support the website and if you’re bored and need a fantasy hockey fix – visit the gang in the forum here.