Markets in focus
US equities confront historically challenging September environment

September has historically represented the most challenging month for US equity performance, with the S&P 500 generating an average return of -0.7% since 1950. The opening week of September 2025 has aligned with historical patterns, demonstrating heightened volatility compared to the preceding period. While the S&P 500 concluded the week with a modest 0.3% gain, intraweek trading ranges more than doubled from the previous week.

Market participants have recently responded favourably to economic weakness under the ‘bad news is good news’ paradigm, as indicators of economic deceleration could prompt accelerated Fed rate cuts. However, following last week’s employment data release, investors are increasingly concerned that monetary policy easing may prove insufficient to address labour market deterioration.

The earnings season has come to an end. Among technology stocks, Salesforce declined more than 5% despite exceeding earnings expectations, as its Agentforce platform has yet to establish the company’s competitiveness in the artificial intelligence sector. Conversely, Broadcom‘s share price surged 9%, bucking the trend where most chip companies declined following their earnings this quarter, as the company announced a $10 billion AI accelerator order that will substantially enhance its growth trajectory.

Within the consumer sector, American Eagle jumped 38% after delivering better-than-expected earnings, benefiting from a high-profile marketing campaign featuring Sydney Sweeney. In contrast, Lululemon shares plummeted 19% as management highlighted risks associated with stringent trade policies.

The US Tech 100 index has reached a technically significant juncture, currently testing support at its 20-day moving average and positioned just below the lower boundary of the ascending channel established from mid-May levels. Failure to maintain current support levels may signal the corrective Wave 4 under Elliott Wave is underway. A 23.6% Fibonacci retracement could direct the index towards 22,400, approximating February’s peak resistance level. Positive market developments may propel the index towards the upper channel boundary at 24,700.

Figure 1: US Tech 100 index (daily) price chart